• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.24 no.9
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• pp.30-40
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• 2024

Building an accurate 3-D spatial road network model has become an active area of research now-a-days that profess to be a new paradigm in developing Smart roads and intelligent transportation system (ITS) which will help the public and private road impresario for better road mobility and eco-routing so that better road traffic, less carbon emission and road safety may be ensured. Dealing with such a large scale 3-D road network data poses challenges in getting accurate elevation information of a road network to better estimate the CO₂ emission and accurate routing for the vehicles in Internet of Vehicle (IoV) scenario. Clustering and regression techniques are found suitable in discovering the missing elevation information in 3-D spatial road network dataset for some points in the road network which is envisaged of helping the public a better eco-routing experience. Further, recently Explainable Artificial Intelligence (xAI) draws attention of the researchers to better interprete, transparent and comprehensible, thus enabling to design efficient choice based models choices depending upon users requirements. The 3-D road network dataset, comprising of spatial attributes (longitude, latitude, altitude) of North Jutland, Denmark, collected from publicly available UCI repositories is preprocessed through feature engineering and scaling to ensure optimal accuracy for clustering and regression tasks. K-Means clustering and regression using Support Vector Machine (SVM) with radial basis function (RBF) kernel are employed for 3-D road network analysis. Silhouette scores and number of clusters are chosen for measuring cluster quality whereas error metric such as MAE ( Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) are considered for evaluating the regression method. To have better interpretability of the Clustering and regression models, SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), a powerful xAI technique is employed in this research. From extensive experiments , it is observed that SHAP analysis validated the importance of latitude and altitude in predicting longitude, particularly in the four-cluster setup, providing critical insights into model behavior and feature contributions SHAP analysis validated the importance of latitude and altitude in predicting longitude, particularly in the four-cluster setup, providing critical insights into model behavior and feature contributions with an accuracy of 97.22% and strong performance metrics across all classes having MAE of 0.0346, and MSE of 0.0018. On the other hand, the ten-cluster setup, while faster in SHAP analysis, presented challenges in interpretability due to increased clustering complexity. Hence, K-Means clustering with K=4 and SVM hybrid models demonstrated superior performance and interpretability, highlighting the importance of careful cluster selection to balance model complexity and predictive accuracy.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.187-204
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• 2016

Document classification based on emotional polarity has become a welcomed emerging task owing to the great explosion of data on the Web. In the big data age, there are too many information sources to refer to when making decisions. For example, when considering travel to a city, a person may search reviews from a search engine such as Google or social networking services (SNSs) such as blogs, Twitter, and Facebook. The emotional polarity of positive and negative reviews helps a user decide on whether or not to make a trip. Sentiment analysis of customer reviews has become an important research topic as datamining technology is widely accepted for text mining of the Web. Sentiment analysis has been used to classify documents through machine learning techniques, such as the decision tree, neural networks, and support vector machines (SVMs). is used to determine the attitude, position, and sensibility of people who write articles about various topics that are published on the Web. Regardless of the polarity of customer reviews, emotional reviews are very helpful materials for analyzing the opinions of customers through their reviews. Sentiment analysis helps with understanding what customers really want instantly through the help of automated text mining techniques. Sensitivity analysis utilizes text mining techniques on text on the Web to extract subjective information in the text for text analysis. Sensitivity analysis is utilized to determine the attitudes or positions of the person who wrote the article and presented their opinion about a particular topic. In this study, we developed a model that selects a hot topic from user posts at China's online stock forum by using the k-means algorithm and self-organizing map (SOM). In addition, we developed a detecting model to predict a hot topic by using machine learning techniques such as logit, the decision tree, and SVM. We employed sensitivity analysis to develop our model for the selection and detection of hot topics from China's online stock forum. The sensitivity analysis calculates a sentimental value from a document based on contrast and classification according to the polarity sentimental dictionary (positive or negative). The online stock forum was an attractive site because of its information about stock investment. Users post numerous texts about stock movement by analyzing the market according to government policy announcements, market reports, reports from research institutes on the economy, and even rumors. We divided the online forum's topics into 21 categories to utilize sentiment analysis. One hundred forty-four topics were selected among 21 categories at online forums about stock. The posts were crawled to build a positive and negative text database. We ultimately obtained 21,141 posts on 88 topics by preprocessing the text from March 2013 to February 2015. The interest index was defined to select the hot topics, and the k-means algorithm and SOM presented equivalent results with this data. We developed a decision tree model to detect hot topics with three algorithms: CHAID, CART, and C4.5. The results of CHAID were subpar compared to the others. We also employed SVM to detect the hot topics from negative data. The SVM models were trained with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel function by a grid search to detect the hot topics. The detection of hot topics by using sentiment analysis provides the latest trends and hot topics in the stock forum for investors so that they no longer need to search the vast amounts of information on the Web. Our proposed model is also helpful to rapidly determine customers' signals or attitudes towards government policy and firms' products and services.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.119-133
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• 2020

Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.39-55
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• 2019

Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.