• 제목/요약/키워드: RCP6.0

검색결과 93건 처리시간 0.024초

반경험식법을 이용한 미래 해수면 상승 예측 (Forecasting of Sea-Level Rise using a Semi-Empirical Method)

  • 김태윤;조광우
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구는 RCP 4종 시나리오(RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5)를 적용하여 얻어진 2100년까지의 대기온도 상승값을 해수면 상승 계산방법 중에 하나인 반경험식법(Semi-empirical method)에 적용하여 해수면 상승치를 예측하였다. RCP 4종 시나리오에서 얻어진 결과에 따르면 모든 시나리오에서 해수면이 꾸준히 상승하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 2050년도까지 RCP 4종 시나리오에 대한 해수면 상승의 차이가 최대 0.08 m 이내였으나 2100년도에는 최대 0.5 m까지 해수면 상승의 격차를 보이고 있었다. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5 시나리오의 2100년도 해수면 예상 상승치는 각각 0.87 m, 1.21 m, 1.02 m, 1.36 m였다. RCP 8.5시나리오는 2060년 이후로 대기온도 상승치가 다른 시나리오에 비해 급상승하는데, 2100년 이후 다른 시나리오와의 해수면 상승 격차는 더 커질 것으로 예상된다. 단순한 비례식으로 추정하면, 2080년도에 RCP 4종 시나리오의 최대 격차가 0.21 m였으나 20년 후인 2100년에는 그 두 배가 넘는 최대 0.5 m였다. 따라서 2120년에는 그 격차가 1.2 m 이상 될 수도 있다.

돼지에서 초저체온 순환정지 하의 역행성 뇌관류시 뇌대사, 혈류역학 지표, 뇌조직 소견 및 혈청 내 neuron-specific enolase의 변화 (The Changes of Cerebral Metabolic and Hemodynamic Parameters, Brain Histology, and Serum Levels of Neuron-Specific Enolase During Retrograde Cerebral Perfusion Under Pofound Hypothermic total Circulatory Arrest in Pigs)

  • 김경환;안혁
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.445-468
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    • 2000
  • Background: Retrograde cerebral perfusion(RCP) is currently used for brain protection during aorta surgery, however, for the safety of it, various data published so far are insufficient. We performed RCP using pig and investiaged various parameters of cerebral metabolism and brain injury after RCP under deep hypothermia. Material and Method: We used two experimental groups: in group I(7 pigs, 20 kg), we performed RCP for 120 minutes and in group II (5 pigs, 20 kg), we did it for 90 minutes. Nasopharyngeal temperature, jugular venous oxygen saturation, electroencephalogram were continuously monitored, and we checked the parameters of cerebral metabolism, histological changes and serum levels of neuron-specific enolose(NSE) and lactic dehydrogenase(LDH). Central venous pressure during RCP was mainained in the range of 25 to 30 mmHg. Result: Perfusion flow rates(ml/min) during RCP were 130$\pm$57.7(30 minutes), 108.6$\pm$55.2(60 minutes), 107.1$\pm$58.8(90 minutes), 98.6$\pm$58.7(120 minutes) in group I and 72$\pm$11.0(30 minutes), 72$\pm$11.0(60 minutes), 74$\pm$11.4(90 minutes) in group II. The ratios of drain flow to perfusion flow were 0.18(30 minutes), 0.19(60 minutes), 0.17(90 minutes), 0.16(120 minutes) in group I and 0.21, 0.20, 0.17 in group II. Oxygen consumptions(ml/min) during RCP were 1.80$\pm$1.37(30 minutes), 1.72$\pm$1.23(60 minutes), 1.38$\pm$0.82(90 minutes), 1.18$\pm$0.67(120 minutes) in group I and 1.56$\pm$0.28(30 minutes), 1.25$\pm$0.28(60 minutes), 1.13$\pm$0.26(90 minutes). We could observe an decreasing tendency of oxygen consumption after 90 minutes of RCP in group I. Cerebrovascular resistance(dynes.sec.cm-5) during RCP in group I incrased from 71370.9$\pm$369145.5 to 83920.9$\pm$49949.0 after the time frame of 90 minutes(p<0.05). Lactate(mg/min) appeared after 30 minutes of RCP and the levels were 0.15$\pm$0.07(30 minutes), 0.18$\pm$0.10(60 minutes), 0.19$\pm$0.19(90 minutes), 0.18$\pm$0.10(120 minutes) in group I and 0.13$\pm$0.09(30 minutes), 0.19$\pm$0.03(60 minutes), 0.29$\pm$0.11(90 minutes) in group II. Glucose utilization, exudation of carbon dioxide, differences of cerebral tissue acidosis between perfusion blood and drain blood were maintained constantly during RCP. Oxygen saturation levels(%) in drain blood during RCP were 22.9$\pm$4.4(30 minutes), 19.2$\pm$4.5(60 minutes), 17.7$\pm$2.8(90 minutes), 14.9$\pm$2.8(120 minutes) in group I and 21.3$\pm$8.6(30 minutes), 20.8$\pm$17.6(60 minutes), 21.1$\pm$12.1(90 minutes) in group II. There were no significant changes in cerebral metabolic parameters between two groups. Differences in serum levels of NSE and LDH between perfusion blood and drain blood during RCP showed no statistical significance. Serum levels of NSE and LDH after resuming of cardipulmonary bypass decreased to the level before RCP. Brain water contents were 0.73$\pm$0.03 in group I and 0.69$\pm$0.06 in group II and were higher than those of the controls(p<0.05). The light microscopic findings of cerebral neocortex, basal ganglia, hippocampus(CA1 region) and cerebellum showed no evidence of cerebral injury in two groups and there were no different electron microscopy in both groups(neocortex, basal ganglia and hippocampus), but they were thought to be reversible findings. Conclusion: Although we did not proceed this study after survival of pigs, we could perform the RCP successfully for 120 minutes with minimal cerebral metabolism and no evidence of irreversible brain damage. The results of NSE and LDH during and after RCP should be reevaluated with survival data.

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홍게 가공회수 단백질의 거품 형성력 및 안정성 (Foaming Capacity and Foaming Stability of Protein Recovered from Red Crab Processing Water)

  • 김용진;신태선;오훈일
    • 한국식품영양학회지
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.325-330
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    • 1996
  • Foaming capacity (FC) and stability (FS) of protein recovered from red crab (Chitinonecetes opilio) processing in water and soybean protein isolate were determined at pH 2.0~10.0 in water and NaCl solution. The FC values for both proteins showed the lowest values at the isoelectric point (pH 4.0) and increased nth an increase in pH above the isoelectric point. FC of RCP was higher than that of SPI at pH 10.0 in water and both NaCl solutions. FC of SPI increased with an increase in NaCl concentration at pH 4.0 and 6.0, but FC of RCP was not affected. The highest FS values for both proteins were obtained at pH 4.0 in water. At pH 2.0, FC of RCP decreased with NaCl concentration increase, but FS increased. NaCl concentration had little effect on FS of RCP at pH 4.0 and 6.0, but the FS decreased at pH 10.0. FS of SPI was similar to that of RCP at pH 2.0 and increased with NaCl concentration Increase from 0.1 to 0.5M NaCl at pH 10.0.

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기후변화를 고려한 농촌지역 그린빌리지의 태양에너지 활용에 관한 경제성 분석 (Economic Analysis of Rural Green-Village Planning with Solar Energy considering Climate Change)

  • 김대식;왕영두
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

미래 기후변화와 토지이용변화가 안성천 공도 도시성장 유역의 수문에 미치는 영향 평가 (Assessment of future climate and land use changes impact on hydrologic behavior in Anseong-cheon Gongdo urban-growing watershed)

  • 김다래;이용관;이지완;김성준
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제51권2호
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구의 목적은 안성천 상류 공도유역($366.5km^2$)을 대상으로 SWAT 모형을 이용하여 미래 기후변화 평가에 있어, 미래의 토지이용변화를 동시에 고려하면 수문학적 거동에 얼마나 영향을 주는지를 분석하고자 하였다. 미래기후변화 시나리오는 HadGEM3-RA의 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오를 이용하여 2030s (2020-2039)과 2050s (2040-2059) 기간으로 나누어 적용하였으며, 토지이용변화는 도시성장 시나리오에 따른 회귀모형 기반의 CLUE-s 모델을 이용하였다. 기준년(1976-2005) 대비 미래 강수량은 RCP 4.5에서 2030s에 최대 5.7%의 감소, 2050s에는 최대 18.5% 증가하였고, 미래 기온은 2030s RCP 4.5에서 최대 $1.8^{\circ}C$, 2050s RCP 8.5에서 최대 $2.6^{\circ}C$ 증가하였다. 미래 토지이용은 2050년 도시지역이 58.6% ($29.0km^2$에서 $46.0km^2$) 증가하는 것으로 예측되었다. SWAT 수문 검보정은 14년(2002-2015) 동안의 공도관측소 일유량 자료를 이용하였으며, 저유량 모델효율의 향상을 위하여 2014-2015년 연속 가뭄년을 대상으로 보정을 실시한 결과, 하천유량(Q)과 1/Q을 대상으로 Nash-Sutcliffe 모델효율은 각각 0.86과 0.76이었다. 미래 기후변화 시나리오만을 적용한 결과, 하천유출량이 2030s RCP 4.5에서 최대 24.2% 감소하다가 2050s RCP 4.5에서 최대 10.9% 증가하는 변화를 보여주었다. 한편, 기후변화와 더불어 미래의 토지이용변화를 함께 고려한 경우는 하천유출량이 2030s RCP 4.5에서 최대 14.9% 감소, 2050s RCP 4.5에서 최대 19.5% 증가하는 변화를 보여주어, 미래 기후변화에 따른 유역의 수문평가 시, 도시성장이 기대되는 유역 등 미래의 토지이용변화가 클 가능성이 있는 유역에 대해서는 토지이용변화 요소를 고려할 필요가 있다고 생각된다.

적양배추에서 분리한 다당의 면역 및 항전이 활성 (Immunomodulatory and anti-metastatic activities of polysaccharide isolated from red cabbage)

  • 이수정;신광순
    • 한국식품과학회지
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    • 제51권3호
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    • pp.263-271
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    • 2019
  • 적양배추 유래물의 면역 활성 및 항전이 활성을 평가하기 위하여 적양배추 유래 열수추출물 RCW 및 조다당 RCP를 분리하였다. RCW는 중성당이 60%의 높은 비율로 검출되었으며, 이중 Glc가 28.2%로 구성되어 있었으며, RCP는 중성당과 산성당이 각각 40.0% 및 58.9%로 이루어져 있으며, 구성당 분석 결과, Ara(27.5%)와 Gal (17.2%)가 높은 비율로 검출되었다. RCW와 RCP는 정상세포 및 암 세포에 대한 어떠한 독성도 나타나지 않았으며, 오히려 정상세포에서는 약간의 증식능이 확인되었다. 또한 대식세포 자극을 통한 cytokine 분비능을 측정한 결과, RCW는 IL-6, IL-12 및 $TNF-{\alpha}$ 생산능은 어떠한 농도에서도 확인되지 않았으며, $1000{\mu}g/mL$ 고농도에서 NO 생산능이 확인되었다. 반면에 RCP는 $8{\mu}g/mL$의 저농도에서도 IL-6, IL-12, $TNF-{\alpha}$ 및 NO의 생산능이 확인되었다. 높은 cytokine 생산능을 나타낸 RCP의 NK 세포 활성 및 항전이 활성을 측정한 결과, RCP를 $1000{\mu}g/mouse$농도로 정맥투여할 경우, NK 세포를 무처리군 대비 최대 12배 활성화 시키는 것으로 확인되었으며, 47.3%의 항전이 활성이 확인되었다. 적양배추 유래 면역 활성 다당의 구조를 추정하기 위하여 ${\beta}-Glucosyl$ Yariv reagent와의 반응성을 검토한 결과, RCP $1000{\mu}g/mL$에는 약 9.7%의 $arabino-{\beta}-3,6-galactan$이 검출되었다. 본 결과로부터 적양배추에는 $arabino-{\beta}-3,6-galactan$을 일부 함유하는 RG-I 형태의 다당으로 존재하며, 이들에 의해 강력한 면역 증진 활성이 나타나는 것이라 결론지을 수 있었다.

SWAT 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 남강댐 유입량 추정 (Estimation of Inflow into Namgang Dam according to Climate Change using SWAT Model)

  • 김동현;김상민
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제59권6호
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study was to estimate the climate change impact on inflow to Namgang Dam using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed flow data from 2003 to 2014 for the study watershed. The $R^2$ (Determination Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient), and RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Error) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibration results showed that the annual mean inflow were within ${\pm}5%$ error compared to the observed. $R^2$ were ranged 0.61~0.87, RMSE were 1.37~7.00 mm/day, NSE were 0.47~0.83, and RMAE were 0.25~0.73 mm/day for daily runoff, respectively. Climate change scenarios were obtained from the HadGEM3-RA. The quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in the climate change scenarios. Based on the climate change scenarios, calibrated SWAT model simulates the future inflow and evapotranspiration for the study watershed. The expected future inflow to Namgang dam using RCP 4.5 is increasing by 4.8 % and RCP 8.5 is increasing by 19.0 %, respectively. The expected future evapotranspiration for Namgang dam watershed using RCP 4.5 is decreasing by 6.7 % and RCP 8.5 is decreasing by 0.7 %, respectively.

SEAWAT을 이용한 미래 해수면 상승에 따른 여수지역 해수침투 저감 대책 효과 분석 (Analysis of the effects of the seawater intrusion countermeasures considering future sea level rise in Yeosu region using SEAWAT)

  • 양정석;이재범;김일환
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제51권6호
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    • pp.515-521
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 SEAWAT을 이용하여 여수지역의 해수침투 피해 면적을 파악하고, 기후변화 시나리오 적용에 따른 미래의 해수침투 피해 예상 면적을 산출하였으며 해수침투 피해 저감 대책의 피해면적 저감 능력을 분석하였다. 2015년 기준 여수지역의 해수침투 피해 면적은 $14.90km^2$로 나타났고, 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하였을 때 2099년 여수지역의 예상 해수침투 피해 면적은 RCP 4.5의 경우 $19.19km^2$이며, RCP 8.5의 경우 $20.43km^2$로 나타났다. 이에 대한 저감대책으로 인공함양을 고려하였을 때, 총 $300m^3/d$, $100m^3/d$, $50m^3/d$의 함양 시나리오를 설정하였을 때 RCP 4.5의 경우 해수침투 면적은 평균 7.03%, RCP 8.5의 경우 8.32% 감소하였다. 물리적 차수벽 대책의 경우는 차수벽의 두께를 0.8 m, 1.3 m, 1.8 m로 설정하였을 때 RCP 4.5의 경우 해수침투 면적은 평균 9.80%, RCP 8.5의 경우 10.30% 감소하였다. 본 연구는 연안지역의 해수에 의한 지하수 오염과 그에 수반한 2차적인 피해를 막기 위한 대비책을 결정하기 위한 정량적인 근거로서 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

SWAT 모델링을 이용한 한강유역의 RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래수문 및 융설 영향평가 (Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Snowmelt by Applying RCP Scenarios using SWAT Model for Hanriver Watersheds)

  • 정충길;문장원;장철희;이동률
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제55권5호
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is to assess the impact of potential climate change on the hydrological components, especially on the streamflow, evapotranspiration and snowmelt, by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 17 Hanriver middle watersheds of South Korea. For future assessment, the SWAT model was calibrated in multiple sites using 4 years (2006-2009) and validated by using 2 years (2010-2011) daily observed data. For the model validation, the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for streamflow were 0.30-0.75. By applying the future scenarios predicted five future time periods Baseline (1992-2011), 2040s (2021-2040), 2060s (2041-2060), 2080s (2061-2080) and 2100s (2081-2100) to SWAT model, the 17 middle watersheds hydrological components of evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt were evaluated. For the future precipitation and temperature of RCP 4.5 scenario increased 41.7 mm (2100s), $+3^{\circ}C$ conditions, the future streamflow showed +32.5 % (2040s), +24.8 % (2060s), +50.5 % (2080s) and +55.0 % (2100s). For the precipitation and temperature of RCP 8.5 scenario increased 63.9 mm (2100s), $+5.8^{\circ}C$ conditions, the future streamflow showed +35.5 % (2040s), +68.9 % (2060s), +58.0 % (2080s) and +63.6 % (2100s). To determine the impact on snowmelt for Hanriver middle watersheds, snowmelt parameters of SWAT model were determined through evaluating observed streamflow data during snowmelt periods (November-April). The results showed that average SMR (snowmelt / runoff) of 17 Hanriver middle watersheds was 62.0 % (Baseline). The annual average SMR were 42.0 % (2040s), 39.8 % (2060s), 29.4 % (2080s) and 27.9 % (2100s) by applying RCP 4.5 scenario. Also, the annual average SMR by applying RCP 8.5 scenario were 40.1 % (2040s), 29.4 % (2060s), 18.3 % (2080s) and 12.7 % (2100s).

RegCM4.0을 활용한 CORDEX II 동아시아 지역의 21C 중·후반 기후 변화 전망 (Prospect of Climate Changes for the Mid and Late 21st Century Using RegCM4.0 over CORDEX II East Asian Region)

  • 김태준;서명석;장은철
    • 대기
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.165-181
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the regional climate model, RegCM4.0 (25 km), with the HadGEM2-AO data as boundary conditions, was used to simulate the mean climate changes in the mid and late 21st century for CORDEX Phase 2 East Asian region. 122 years (1979~2100) of simulation were performed, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for the simulation of future climate. In the mid-21st century, the temperature is expected to increase by about 0.5 to $3.0^{\circ}C$ in all regions of East Asia, regardless of season and scenario. The increase in temperature is greater in summer and winter, especially in the northern part of simulation domain. Interannual variability (IAV) is expected to decrease by 25% in summer for RCP 8.5, while it is expected to increase by more than 30% in autumn for both scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, the precipitation in South Korea is expected to increase in late June but decrease in mid-July, with an increase in precipitation greater than $100mm\;day^{-1}$. In RCP 4.5 of the late 21st century, relatively uniform temperature increase ($1.0{\sim}2.5^{\circ}C$) is expected throughout the continent, while RCP 8.5 shows a very diverse increase ($3.0{\sim}6.0^{\circ}C$) depending on season and geographical location. In addition, the IAV of temperature is expected to decrease by more than 35% in both scenarios in the summer. In most of the Northwest Pacific region, precipitation is expected to decrease in all seasons except for the summer, but in South Korea, it is projected to increase by about 10% in all seasons except autumn.