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http://dx.doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2017.59.6.009

Estimation of Inflow into Namgang Dam according to Climate Change using SWAT Model  

Kim, Dong-Hyeon (Department of Agricultural Engineering, National Institute of Agricultural Science, RDA)
Kim, Sang-Min (Department of Agricultural Engineering, (Insti. of Agric, and Life Sci.) Gyeongsang National University)
Publication Information
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers / v.59, no.6, 2017 , pp. 9-18 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study was to estimate the climate change impact on inflow to Namgang Dam using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed flow data from 2003 to 2014 for the study watershed. The $R^2$ (Determination Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient), and RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Error) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibration results showed that the annual mean inflow were within ${\pm}5%$ error compared to the observed. $R^2$ were ranged 0.61~0.87, RMSE were 1.37~7.00 mm/day, NSE were 0.47~0.83, and RMAE were 0.25~0.73 mm/day for daily runoff, respectively. Climate change scenarios were obtained from the HadGEM3-RA. The quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in the climate change scenarios. Based on the climate change scenarios, calibrated SWAT model simulates the future inflow and evapotranspiration for the study watershed. The expected future inflow to Namgang dam using RCP 4.5 is increasing by 4.8 % and RCP 8.5 is increasing by 19.0 %, respectively. The expected future evapotranspiration for Namgang dam watershed using RCP 4.5 is decreasing by 6.7 % and RCP 8.5 is decreasing by 0.7 %, respectively.
Keywords
SWAT model; Climate change; RCP scenario; Namgang dam; Inflow; Evapotranspiration;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 11  (Citation Analysis)
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