• Title/Summary/Keyword: RCP6.0

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Forecasting of Sea-Level Rise using a Semi-Empirical Method (반경험식법을 이용한 미래 해수면 상승 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Yun;Cho, Kwang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we predicted sea-level rise for RCP 4scenarios(RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). To calculate sea-level rise, a semi-empirical method was used and it needs atmospheric temperature rise for each scenario. According to the results, the sea-level has been rising steadily in all scenarios. By 2050 the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios was within 0.08 m, but its difference was showed more than 0.5 m in 2100. The values of sea-level rise for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5 scenarios are 0.87 m, 1.21 m, 1.02 m, 1.36 m, respectively. In the case of RCP 8.5, the slope of atmospheric temperature rise since 2060 was very steep compared to the other scenarios so that the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios will be much larger after 2100. Estimated by a simple approximation, the maximum difference of sea-level rise can be more than 1.2 m in 2120.

The Changes of Cerebral Metabolic and Hemodynamic Parameters, Brain Histology, and Serum Levels of Neuron-Specific Enolase During Retrograde Cerebral Perfusion Under Pofound Hypothermic total Circulatory Arrest in Pigs (돼지에서 초저체온 순환정지 하의 역행성 뇌관류시 뇌대사, 혈류역학 지표, 뇌조직 소견 및 혈청 내 neuron-specific enolase의 변화)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hwan;Ahn, Hyuk
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.445-468
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    • 2000
  • Background: Retrograde cerebral perfusion(RCP) is currently used for brain protection during aorta surgery, however, for the safety of it, various data published so far are insufficient. We performed RCP using pig and investiaged various parameters of cerebral metabolism and brain injury after RCP under deep hypothermia. Material and Method: We used two experimental groups: in group I(7 pigs, 20 kg), we performed RCP for 120 minutes and in group II (5 pigs, 20 kg), we did it for 90 minutes. Nasopharyngeal temperature, jugular venous oxygen saturation, electroencephalogram were continuously monitored, and we checked the parameters of cerebral metabolism, histological changes and serum levels of neuron-specific enolose(NSE) and lactic dehydrogenase(LDH). Central venous pressure during RCP was mainained in the range of 25 to 30 mmHg. Result: Perfusion flow rates(ml/min) during RCP were 130$\pm$57.7(30 minutes), 108.6$\pm$55.2(60 minutes), 107.1$\pm$58.8(90 minutes), 98.6$\pm$58.7(120 minutes) in group I and 72$\pm$11.0(30 minutes), 72$\pm$11.0(60 minutes), 74$\pm$11.4(90 minutes) in group II. The ratios of drain flow to perfusion flow were 0.18(30 minutes), 0.19(60 minutes), 0.17(90 minutes), 0.16(120 minutes) in group I and 0.21, 0.20, 0.17 in group II. Oxygen consumptions(ml/min) during RCP were 1.80$\pm$1.37(30 minutes), 1.72$\pm$1.23(60 minutes), 1.38$\pm$0.82(90 minutes), 1.18$\pm$0.67(120 minutes) in group I and 1.56$\pm$0.28(30 minutes), 1.25$\pm$0.28(60 minutes), 1.13$\pm$0.26(90 minutes). We could observe an decreasing tendency of oxygen consumption after 90 minutes of RCP in group I. Cerebrovascular resistance(dynes.sec.cm-5) during RCP in group I incrased from 71370.9$\pm$369145.5 to 83920.9$\pm$49949.0 after the time frame of 90 minutes(p<0.05). Lactate(mg/min) appeared after 30 minutes of RCP and the levels were 0.15$\pm$0.07(30 minutes), 0.18$\pm$0.10(60 minutes), 0.19$\pm$0.19(90 minutes), 0.18$\pm$0.10(120 minutes) in group I and 0.13$\pm$0.09(30 minutes), 0.19$\pm$0.03(60 minutes), 0.29$\pm$0.11(90 minutes) in group II. Glucose utilization, exudation of carbon dioxide, differences of cerebral tissue acidosis between perfusion blood and drain blood were maintained constantly during RCP. Oxygen saturation levels(%) in drain blood during RCP were 22.9$\pm$4.4(30 minutes), 19.2$\pm$4.5(60 minutes), 17.7$\pm$2.8(90 minutes), 14.9$\pm$2.8(120 minutes) in group I and 21.3$\pm$8.6(30 minutes), 20.8$\pm$17.6(60 minutes), 21.1$\pm$12.1(90 minutes) in group II. There were no significant changes in cerebral metabolic parameters between two groups. Differences in serum levels of NSE and LDH between perfusion blood and drain blood during RCP showed no statistical significance. Serum levels of NSE and LDH after resuming of cardipulmonary bypass decreased to the level before RCP. Brain water contents were 0.73$\pm$0.03 in group I and 0.69$\pm$0.06 in group II and were higher than those of the controls(p<0.05). The light microscopic findings of cerebral neocortex, basal ganglia, hippocampus(CA1 region) and cerebellum showed no evidence of cerebral injury in two groups and there were no different electron microscopy in both groups(neocortex, basal ganglia and hippocampus), but they were thought to be reversible findings. Conclusion: Although we did not proceed this study after survival of pigs, we could perform the RCP successfully for 120 minutes with minimal cerebral metabolism and no evidence of irreversible brain damage. The results of NSE and LDH during and after RCP should be reevaluated with survival data.

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Foaming Capacity and Foaming Stability of Protein Recovered from Red Crab Processing Water (홍게 가공회수 단백질의 거품 형성력 및 안정성)

  • Kim, Yong-Jin;Sin, Tae-Seon;O, Hun-Il
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.325-330
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    • 1996
  • Foaming capacity (FC) and stability (FS) of protein recovered from red crab (Chitinonecetes opilio) processing in water and soybean protein isolate were determined at pH 2.0~10.0 in water and NaCl solution. The FC values for both proteins showed the lowest values at the isoelectric point (pH 4.0) and increased nth an increase in pH above the isoelectric point. FC of RCP was higher than that of SPI at pH 10.0 in water and both NaCl solutions. FC of SPI increased with an increase in NaCl concentration at pH 4.0 and 6.0, but FC of RCP was not affected. The highest FS values for both proteins were obtained at pH 4.0 in water. At pH 2.0, FC of RCP decreased with NaCl concentration increase, but FS increased. NaCl concentration had little effect on FS of RCP at pH 4.0 and 6.0, but the FS decreased at pH 10.0. FS of SPI was similar to that of RCP at pH 2.0 and increased with NaCl concentration Increase from 0.1 to 0.5M NaCl at pH 10.0.

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Economic Analysis of Rural Green-Village Planning with Solar Energy considering Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 농촌지역 그린빌리지의 태양에너지 활용에 관한 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Wang, Young-Doo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

Assessment of future climate and land use changes impact on hydrologic behavior in Anseong-cheon Gongdo urban-growing watershed (미래 기후변화와 토지이용변화가 안성천 공도 도시성장 유역의 수문에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Da Rae;Lee, Yong Gwan;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future hydrologic behavior affected by the potential climate and land use changes in upstream of Anseong-cheon watershed ($366.5km^2$) using SWAT. The HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for 2030s (2020-2039) and 2050s (2040-2059) periods as the future climate change scenario. It was shown that maximum changes of precipitation ranged from -5.7% in 2030s to +18.5% in 2050s for RCP 4.5 scenarios and the temperature increased up to $1.8^{\circ}C$ and $2.6^{\circ}C$ in 2030s RCP 4.5 and 2050s 8.5 scenarios respectively based on baseline (1976-2005) period. The future land uses were predicted using the CLUE-s model by establishing logistic regression equation. The 2050 urban area were predicted to increase of 58.6% (29.0 to $46.0km^2$). The SWAT was calibrated and verified using 14 years (2002-2015) of daily streamflow with 0.86 and 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for stream flow (Q) and low flow 1/Q respectively focusing on 2 drought years (2014-2015) calibration. For future climate change only, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 24.2% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and turned to maximum increase of 10.9% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario compared with the baseline period stream discharge of 601.0 mm by the precipitation variation and gradual temperature increase. While considering both future climate and land use change, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 14.9% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and maximum increase of 19.5% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario by the urban growth and the related land use changes. The results supported that the future land use factor might be considered especially for having high potential urban growth within a watershed in the future climate change assessment.

Immunomodulatory and anti-metastatic activities of polysaccharide isolated from red cabbage (적양배추에서 분리한 다당의 면역 및 항전이 활성)

  • Lee, Sue Jung;Shin, Kwang-Soon
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.263-271
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we examined the immunostimulating characteristics of a hot water extract (RCW) and crude polysaccharides (RCP) of red cabbage. RCW and RCP did not show any cytotoxicity in B16BL6 cells and macrophages. Although the sugar compositions of RCW and RCP were similar, the uronic acid content of RCP was higher than that of RCW RCP significantly increased the production of various cytokines and NO, whereas RCW did not affect the production of cytokines and NO. In an ex vivo assay of natural killer (NK) cell activity, intravenous (i.v.) administration of RCP significantly augmented NK cytotoxicity against Yac-1 tumor cells at 3 days after RCP treatment. In an experimental lung metastasis model using B16BL6 melanoma cells, i.v. administration of RCP at a dose of $1,000{\mu}g$ per mouse significantly inhibited 47.3% of lung metastasis. These results suggest that crude polysaccharide isolated from red cabbage is a promising food ingredient for the prevention of tumor metastasis.

Estimation of Inflow into Namgang Dam according to Climate Change using SWAT Model (SWAT 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 남강댐 유입량 추정)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.6
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study was to estimate the climate change impact on inflow to Namgang Dam using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed flow data from 2003 to 2014 for the study watershed. The $R^2$ (Determination Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient), and RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Error) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibration results showed that the annual mean inflow were within ${\pm}5%$ error compared to the observed. $R^2$ were ranged 0.61~0.87, RMSE were 1.37~7.00 mm/day, NSE were 0.47~0.83, and RMAE were 0.25~0.73 mm/day for daily runoff, respectively. Climate change scenarios were obtained from the HadGEM3-RA. The quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in the climate change scenarios. Based on the climate change scenarios, calibrated SWAT model simulates the future inflow and evapotranspiration for the study watershed. The expected future inflow to Namgang dam using RCP 4.5 is increasing by 4.8 % and RCP 8.5 is increasing by 19.0 %, respectively. The expected future evapotranspiration for Namgang dam watershed using RCP 4.5 is decreasing by 6.7 % and RCP 8.5 is decreasing by 0.7 %, respectively.

Analysis of the effects of the seawater intrusion countermeasures considering future sea level rise in Yeosu region using SEAWAT (SEAWAT을 이용한 미래 해수면 상승에 따른 여수지역 해수침투 저감 대책 효과 분석)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Lee, Jae-Beom;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.515-521
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    • 2018
  • Seawater intrusion areas were calculated in Yeosu region considering sea level rise and the effects of countermeasures for seawater intrusion were analyzed using SEAWAT program. The estimated seawater intrusion area was $14.90km^2$ in 2015. When we applied climate change scenarios the area was changed to $19.19km^2$ for RCP 4.5 and $20.43km^2$ for RCP 8.5 respectively. The mitigation effects by artificial recharge with total $50m^3/d$, $100m^3/d$, and $300m^3/d$ are from 3.75% to 10.68% for RCP 4.5, and from 5.82% to 10.77% for RCP 8.5 respectively. If we install barrier wall with the thickness 0.8 m, 1.3 m, and 1.8 m, the mitigation effects are from 6.67% to 12.04% for RCP 4.5, and from 6.17% to 14.98% for RCP 8.5 respectively. The results of this study can be used to be a logical means of quantitative grounds for policy decisions to prevent groundwater contamination by seawater intrusion and subsequent secondary damage in coastal areas.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Snowmelt by Applying RCP Scenarios using SWAT Model for Hanriver Watersheds (SWAT 모델링을 이용한 한강유역의 RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래수문 및 융설 영향평가)

  • Jung, Chung Gil;Moon, Jang Won;Jang, Cheol Hee;Lee, Dong Ryul
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is to assess the impact of potential climate change on the hydrological components, especially on the streamflow, evapotranspiration and snowmelt, by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 17 Hanriver middle watersheds of South Korea. For future assessment, the SWAT model was calibrated in multiple sites using 4 years (2006-2009) and validated by using 2 years (2010-2011) daily observed data. For the model validation, the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for streamflow were 0.30-0.75. By applying the future scenarios predicted five future time periods Baseline (1992-2011), 2040s (2021-2040), 2060s (2041-2060), 2080s (2061-2080) and 2100s (2081-2100) to SWAT model, the 17 middle watersheds hydrological components of evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt were evaluated. For the future precipitation and temperature of RCP 4.5 scenario increased 41.7 mm (2100s), $+3^{\circ}C$ conditions, the future streamflow showed +32.5 % (2040s), +24.8 % (2060s), +50.5 % (2080s) and +55.0 % (2100s). For the precipitation and temperature of RCP 8.5 scenario increased 63.9 mm (2100s), $+5.8^{\circ}C$ conditions, the future streamflow showed +35.5 % (2040s), +68.9 % (2060s), +58.0 % (2080s) and +63.6 % (2100s). To determine the impact on snowmelt for Hanriver middle watersheds, snowmelt parameters of SWAT model were determined through evaluating observed streamflow data during snowmelt periods (November-April). The results showed that average SMR (snowmelt / runoff) of 17 Hanriver middle watersheds was 62.0 % (Baseline). The annual average SMR were 42.0 % (2040s), 39.8 % (2060s), 29.4 % (2080s) and 27.9 % (2100s) by applying RCP 4.5 scenario. Also, the annual average SMR by applying RCP 8.5 scenario were 40.1 % (2040s), 29.4 % (2060s), 18.3 % (2080s) and 12.7 % (2100s).

Prospect of Climate Changes for the Mid and Late 21st Century Using RegCM4.0 over CORDEX II East Asian Region (RegCM4.0을 활용한 CORDEX II 동아시아 지역의 21C 중·후반 기후 변화 전망)

  • Kim, Tae-Jun;Suh, Myoung-Seok;Chang, Eun-Chul
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.165-181
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the regional climate model, RegCM4.0 (25 km), with the HadGEM2-AO data as boundary conditions, was used to simulate the mean climate changes in the mid and late 21st century for CORDEX Phase 2 East Asian region. 122 years (1979~2100) of simulation were performed, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for the simulation of future climate. In the mid-21st century, the temperature is expected to increase by about 0.5 to $3.0^{\circ}C$ in all regions of East Asia, regardless of season and scenario. The increase in temperature is greater in summer and winter, especially in the northern part of simulation domain. Interannual variability (IAV) is expected to decrease by 25% in summer for RCP 8.5, while it is expected to increase by more than 30% in autumn for both scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, the precipitation in South Korea is expected to increase in late June but decrease in mid-July, with an increase in precipitation greater than $100mm\;day^{-1}$. In RCP 4.5 of the late 21st century, relatively uniform temperature increase ($1.0{\sim}2.5^{\circ}C$) is expected throughout the continent, while RCP 8.5 shows a very diverse increase ($3.0{\sim}6.0^{\circ}C$) depending on season and geographical location. In addition, the IAV of temperature is expected to decrease by more than 35% in both scenarios in the summer. In most of the Northwest Pacific region, precipitation is expected to decrease in all seasons except for the summer, but in South Korea, it is projected to increase by about 10% in all seasons except autumn.