• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.567-577
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• 2015

Climate and land use changes have impact on availability water resource by hydrologic cycle change. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic behavior by the future potential climate and land use changes in Anseongcheon watershed ($371.1km^2$) using SWAT model. For climate change scenario, the HadGEM-RA (the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3-Regional Atmosphere model) RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were used. The mean temperature increased up to $4.2^{\circ}C$ and the precipitation showed maximum 21.2% increase for 2080s RCP 8.5 scenario comparing with the baseline (1990-2010). For the land use change scenario, the Conservation of Land Use its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s) model was applied for 3 scenarios (logarithmic, linear, exponential) according to urban growth. The 2100 urban area of the watershed was predicted by 9.4%, 20.7%, and 35% respectively for each scenario. As the climate change impact, the evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow (ST) showed maximum change of 20.6% in 2080s RCP 8.5 and 25.7% in 2080s RCP 4.5 respectively. As the land use change impact, the ET and ST showed maximum change of 3.7% in 2080s logarithmic and 2.9% in 2080s linear urban growth respectively. By the both climate and land use change impacts, the ET and ST changed 19.2% in 2040s RCP 8.5 and exponential scenarios and 36.1% in 2080s RCP 4.5 and linear scenarios respectively. The results of the research are expected to understand the changing water resources of watershed quantitatively by hydrological environment condition change in the future.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.397-407
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• 2013

Seasons in Korea have very distinguishable features. Due to continental high pressure, spring in Korea is dry and has low precipitation. Due to climate change derived from the increase of greenhouse gases, climate variability had increased and it became harder to predict. This caused the spring drought harsher than usual. Since 1990s, numbers of chronic drought from winter to spring increased in southern regions of Korea. Such drought in the spring damages the growth and development of the crops sown in the spring and decreases its quantity. For stable agricultural production in the future, it is necessary to assess vulnerability of the relationship between spring drought and agricultural production as well as to establish appropriate measures accordingly. This research used CCGIS program to perform vulnerability assessment on spring drought based on climate change scenario SRES A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1, B2 and RCP 8.5 in 232 regions in Korea. As a result, Every scenario showed that vulnerability of spring drought decreased from 2000s to 2050s. Ratio of decrease was 37% under SRES scenario but, 3% under RCP 8.5 scenario. Also, for 2050 prediction, every scenario predicted the highest vulnerability in Chungcheongnam-do. However, RCP-8.5 predicted higher vulnerability in Gyeonggi-do than SRES scenario. The reason for overall decrease in vulnerability of agriculture for future spring drought is because the increase of precipitation was predicted. The assessment of vulnerability by different regions showed that choosing suitable scenario is very important factor.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.65-73
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• 2016

We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.165-181
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• 2019

In this study, the regional climate model, RegCM4.0 (25 km), with the HadGEM2-AO data as boundary conditions, was used to simulate the mean climate changes in the mid and late 21st century for CORDEX Phase 2 East Asian region. 122 years (1979~2100) of simulation were performed, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for the simulation of future climate. In the mid-21st century, the temperature is expected to increase by about 0.5 to $3.0^{\circ}C$ in all regions of East Asia, regardless of season and scenario. The increase in temperature is greater in summer and winter, especially in the northern part of simulation domain. Interannual variability (IAV) is expected to decrease by 25% in summer for RCP 8.5, while it is expected to increase by more than 30% in autumn for both scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, the precipitation in South Korea is expected to increase in late June but decrease in mid-July, with an increase in precipitation greater than $100mm\;day^{-1}$. In RCP 4.5 of the late 21st century, relatively uniform temperature increase ($1.0{\sim}2.5^{\circ}C$) is expected throughout the continent, while RCP 8.5 shows a very diverse increase ($3.0{\sim}6.0^{\circ}C$) depending on season and geographical location. In addition, the IAV of temperature is expected to decrease by more than 35% in both scenarios in the summer. In most of the Northwest Pacific region, precipitation is expected to decrease in all seasons except for the summer, but in South Korea, it is projected to increase by about 10% in all seasons except autumn.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.5
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• pp.35-41
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• 2012

The paddy rice consumptive use in the six plains of the Korean peninsula was projected with changing climate under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. High resolution climate data for the baseline (1961-1990) was obtained from the International water management institute (IWMI) and future high resolution climate projection was obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Reference evapotranspiration (ET) was calculated by using Hargreaves equation. The results of this study showed that the average annual mean temperature would increase persistently in the future. Temperatures were projected to increase more in RCP8.5 than those in RCP4.5 scenario. The rice consumptive use during the growing period was projected to increase slightly in the 2020s and then more significantly in the 2050s and 2080s. It showed higher values for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. The rice consumptive use after transplanting in the study areas would increase by 2.2 %, 5.1 % and 7.2 % for RCP4.5 and 3.0 %, 7.6 %, and 13.3 % for RCP8.5, in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the baseline value of 534 mm. The results demonstrated the effects of climate change on rice consumptive use quite well, and can be used in the future agricultural water planning in the Korean peninsula.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.33-49
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• 2015

The objective of this study was to predict land use change based on the land use change scenarios for the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The land use change scenario was derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CLUE (conversion of land use and its effects) model was used to simulate the land use change. The CLUE is the modeling framework to simulate land use change considering empirically quantified relations between land use types and socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors through dynamical modeling. The Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea was selected as study area. Future land use changes in 2040, 2070, and 2100 were analyzed relative to baseline (2010) under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Binary logistic regressions were carried out to identify the relation between land uses and its driving factors. CN (Curve number) and impervious area based on the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed using the results of future land use changes. The land use change simulation of the RCP4.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 12% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 16% between 2010 and 2100. The land use change simulation of the RCP8.5 scenario resulted that the area of urban was forecast to increase by 16% and the area of forest was estimated to decrease by 18% between 2010 and 2100. The values of Kappa and multiple resolution procedure were calculated as 0.61 and 74.03%. CN (III) and impervious area were increased by 0-1 and 0-8% from 2010 to 2100, respectively. The study findings may provide a useful tool for estimating the future land use change, which is an important factor for the future extreme flood.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.185-196
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• 2015

A conceptual watershed model HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) was applied to the Hwangryong river watershed to evaluate climate change effects on pollution loads of the river. For modeling purposes, the Hwangryong river watershed was divided into 7 sub-watersheds. The model was calibrated and validated for the river discharges against the data observed in 2011 at several monitoring stations. The RCP scenarios were set up for the model simulations after being corrected by change factor method. The simulation results of the RCP 4.5 scenario indicate that the annual river discharge and concentrations of BOD, TN, TP of the Hwangryong river will continually increase during the second-half of the 21st century. As for the RCP 8.5 scenario, the simulations results imply that the pollution loads will increase during the middle of the 21st century reflecting the pattern of precipitation. Monthly distributions of the pollution loads for the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 scenarios show it will increase the most in September and February, respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.86-86
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• 2017

기후변화에 따른 다양한 형태의 자연재해로 인하여 기존 설계기준을 능가하는 홍수가 발생하고, 막대한 국가적 손실이 발생하고 있다. 이러한 기후변화의 영향에 대비하기 위하여 IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) 5차 평가보고서 ($5^{th}$ Assessment Report, AR5)를 근간으로 국내 외에서 많은 연구들이 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 낙동강 유역을 대상으로 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 미래 강우자료를 이용하여 홍수 유출량을 산정하고, 이를 기존의 설계홍수량과 비교 분석하였다. 기상청은 IPCC 5차 평가보고서에 따른 국가표준 기후변화 시나리오를 산출하여 제공하고 있으며, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오 중 온실가스 저감 정책이 실현되지 않는 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 이용하여 연구를 수행하였다. 낙동강 유역에서 설계홍수량 산정에 사용한 연최대 강우자료와 기후변화 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 생산되는 강우자료를 이용하여 확률강우량을 추정하였고, 강우-유출 모형을 이용하여 홍수량을 산정하여 비교 분석하였다. 현재의 설계기준과 시나리오 기반의 미래 홍수 유출량의 비교 분석 결과는 기후변화 위험에 능동적으로 대응하고 보다 안정적인 수공구조물 설계를 위하여 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.72-82
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• 2014

This study was conducted to predict the changes of yearly productive area distribution for pinus densiflora under climate change scenario. For this, site index equations by ecoprovinces were first developed using environmental factors. Using the large data set from both a digital forest site map and a climatic map, a total of 48 environmental factors including 19 climatic variables were regressed on site index to develop site index equations. Two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were then applied to the developed site index equations and the distribution of productive areas for pinus densiflora were predicted from 2020 to 2100 years in 10-year intervals. The results from this study show that the distribution of productive areas for pinus densiflora generally decreases as time passes. It was also found that the productive area distribution of Pinus densiflora is different over time under two climate change scenarios. The RCP 8.5 which is more extreme climate change scenario showed much more decreased distribution of productive areas than the RCP 4.5. It is expected that the study results on the amount and distribution of productive areas over time for pinus densiflora under climate change scenarios could provide valuable information necessary for the policies of suitable species on a site.