Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Nn Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Pollution Loads of the Hwangryong River Watershed in Korea

기후변화에 따른 황룡강 유역의 오염부하 유출량 변화 분석

  • Received : 2014.07.31
  • Accepted : 2015.02.11
  • Published : 2015.03.31
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Abstract

A conceptual watershed model HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) was applied to the Hwangryong river watershed to evaluate climate change effects on pollution loads of the river. For modeling purposes, the Hwangryong river watershed was divided into 7 sub-watersheds. The model was calibrated and validated for the river discharges against the data observed in 2011 at several monitoring stations. The RCP scenarios were set up for the model simulations after being corrected by change factor method. The simulation results of the RCP 4.5 scenario indicate that the annual river discharge and concentrations of BOD, TN, TP of the Hwangryong river will continually increase during the second-half of the 21st century. As for the RCP 8.5 scenario, the simulations results imply that the pollution loads will increase during the middle of the 21st century reflecting the pattern of precipitation. Monthly distributions of the pollution loads for the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 scenarios show it will increase the most in September and February, respectively.

본 연구에서는 황룡강 유역에 유역모델 HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran)를 적용하여 기후변화에 따른 오염부하 유출 변화량을 분석하였다. 황룡강 유역을 7개 소유역으로 분할하고 2011년에 관측된 유량, SS, BOD, TN, TP 농도자료를 이용하여 모델 보정 및 검정을 실시하였다. 기후변화에 따른 황룡강 유역의 환경변화를 예측하기 위해 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오를 이용하였으며, 과거 기간 동안의 강우와 기온에 대한 모의치와 관측치간 월별 평균을 비교하여 미래 기상 자료에 대한 편의 보정을 수행하였다. 기후변화 시나리오의 기상 자료 분석 결과, 21세기 전반기와 비교하여 중, 후반기에 상대적으로 많은 연강수량과 연평균기온을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 기후변화에 따른 황룡강 유역에서의 오염물질 유출량 분석 결과, RCP 4.5 시나리오에서는 2020년대 대비 2080년대에 평균 연간 강우, BOD, TN, TP 유출량이 각각 47%, 24%, 21%, 27% 증가율을 보여 21세기 후반기로 갈수록 연간 오염부하 유출량이 전반적으로 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. RCP 8.5 시나리오에서는 2020년대 대비 2050년대에 평균 연간 강우, BOD, TN, TP 유출량이 각각 34%, 20%, 20%, 21% 증가율을 보이며 21세기 중반기에 연간 오염부하 유출량이 상대적으로 가장 많이 증가할 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 연강수량 변화와 동일한 패턴의 변화로서 기후변화에 따른 강우량 변화가 오염물질 유출량에 그대로 반영된 결과를 보여준다. 한편, 월별 오염물질 유출량은 RCP 4.5에서는 9월에, RCP 8.5에서는 2월에 상대적으로 크게 증가할 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

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