• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.459-472
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• 2019

The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.161-176
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• 2021

In this study, one of the distributed hydrologic models, VELAS, was used to analyze the variation of hydrologic elements based on water balance analysis to evaluate the groundwater recharge in more detail than the annual time scale for the past and future. The study area is located in Yanggok-ri, Seobu-myeon, Hongseong-gun, Chungnam-do, which is very vulnerable to drought. To implement the VELAS model, spatial characteristic data such as digital elevation model (DEM), vegetation, and slope were established, and GIS data were constructed through spatial interpolation on the daily air temperature, precipitation, average wind speed, and relative humidity of the Korea Meteorological Stations. The results of the analysis showed that annual precipitation was 799.1-1750.8 mm, average 1210.7 mm, groundwater recharge of 28.8-492.9 mm, and average 196.9 mm over the past 18 years from 2001 to 2018 in the study area. Annual groundwater recharge rate compared to annual precipitation was from 3.6 to 28.2% with a very large variation and average 14.9%. By the climate change RCP 8.5 scenario, the annual precipitation from 2019 to 2100 was 572.8-1996.5 mm (average 1078.4 mm) and groundwater recharge of 26.7-432.5 mm (average precipitation 16.2%). The annual groundwater recharge rates in the future were projected from 2.8% to 45.1%, 18.2% on average. The components that make up the water balance were well correlated with precipitation, especially in the annual data rather than the daily data. However, the amount of evapotranspiration seems to be more affected by other climatic factors such as temperature. Groundwater recharge in more detailed time scale rather than annual scale is expected to provide basic data that can be used for groundwater development and management if precipitation are severely varied by time, such as droughts or floods.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.291-302
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• 2017

The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.21 no.12
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• pp.1503-1510
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• 2012

The purpose of this article is analyzing the impacts of climate change on red pepper yield in Korea, with employing a panel data regression model. Our results show that there is a negative impacts of high temperature and precipitation amount on red pepper yields. Especially high temperature and rainfall in July cause serious damage to red pepper yield. According to the reduction schedule on greenhouse gas emission(RCP 8.5 scenario.), red pepper yield would be 25.4% lower than it is, for reasons of high temperature and rainfall damages by the end of 21st century.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.58 no.6
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• pp.93-100
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• 2016

This study conducted a quantitative assessment on the environmental flows associated with climate change in the Gosam Reservoir, Korea. The application of RCP 8.5 climate change scenario has found that the peak value of High Flow Pulses has increased by 36.0 % on average compared to historical data (2001 ~ 2010), which is likely to cause disadvantage on flood control and management but the increase in peak value is expected to make a positive impact on resolving the issue of green algal blooms, promoting vegetation in surrounding areas and encouraging spawning and providing habitats for native species by releasing a larger amount of landslides as well as organic matters than the past. However, the decreasing pattern of the peak value of High Flow Pulses is quite apparent with the trend of delay on the occurrence time of peak value, necessitating a long-term impact analysis. The peak value of Large Floods shows a clear sign of decrease against climate change scenario, which is expected to lead to changes in fish species caused by degraded quality of water and decreasing habitats. A quicker occurrence of Small Floods is also expected to make an impact on the growth cycle of aquatic plants, and the reduction in occurrence frequency of Extreme Low Flows is to contribute to increasing the population of and raising the survival rate of native fish, greatly improving the aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study are expected to be useful to establish the water environment and ecological system in adapting or responding to climate change.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.119-126
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• 2020

This study analyzed the effects of future climate change on water resources in the Gyeongan-cheon watershed of the Han River. Considering the uncertainties of GCM climate data, future data using 16 GCMs and SQM downscaling method are used. And SWAT model was applied to simulate the hydrological changes from the past to the future. The maximum to minimum difference according to GCM for the future period (2010-2099) was about 1,500 mm of annual precipitation, 150 mm of evapotranspiration, 1,380 mm of runoff, and the deviation from the mean was -40 % to +60 % of precipitation, ±15 % of evapotranspiration, -60 % to +90 % of runoff, which means that the variability is very high according to GCM. The impacts of climate change over the three future periods showed that precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff were expected to increase gradually toward the far future (2070-2099), and would be relatively larger under the RCP 8.5 scenario. On a monthly basis, it was analyzed that precipitation and runoff increased in July to September, while the evapotranspiration decreased in July and August, and increased in September and October. The results of this study are expected to be helpful in understanding the future climate impacts of various GCM data and the uncertainties associated with GCMs.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2017.06a
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• pp.326-326
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• 2017

Climate warming is the issue on the global scale. Soybean can be seriously damaged when high temperature occurs during a reproductive stage such as the flowering and pod-setting period according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2021~2100) 8.5 scenarios. The weather in 2016 was very different from other years (average for 30 years from 1980 to 2010) ; the highest temperature was $33.7^{\circ}C$ which was higher $3.29^{\circ}C$ than average temperature from last 30 years and average rainfall was 26.5 mm, lower 140.9 mm than average rainfalls from other years. Especially, the highest temperature during soybean flow-ering and pod setting stage was $26.8^{\circ}C$ which was higher $0.1^{\circ}C$ and rainfall was 172.2 mm, higher 47.8 mm than other years from the first to the 20th in the October at soybean seed elongation stage. Soybean leaves were turned upside down by the drought stress during the flowering and pod-setting stage. The numbe-r of pods and seeds per unit area decreased 11.0% and 30.3% compared with the previous year, respectively. The ripening period was prolonged by 21 days because of high temperature and soil moisture contents due to the continual rainmade increase of the seed weight up to 15.6% and the yield decreased 7.1% compared to the previous year.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.501-511
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• 2016

Predicting potential spatial distribution of Monochamus alternatus, a major insect vector of the pine wilt disease, is essential to the spread of the pine wilt disease. The purpose of this study was to predict future domestic spatial distribution of M. alternatus by using the CLIMEX model considering the temperature condition of the vector's life history. To predict current distribution of M. alternatus, the administrative divisions data where the pine wilt spots caused by M. alternatus were found from 2006 to 2014 and the 10-year mean climate observed data in 68 meteorological stations from 2006 to 2015 were used. Eight parameter sets were chosen based on growth temperature range of M. alternatus reported in preceding researches. Error matrix method was utilized to select and simulate the parameter sets showing the highest correlation with the actual distribution. Regarding the future distribution of M. alternatus, two periods of 2050s(2046-2055) and 2090s(2091-2100) were predicted using the projected climate data of RCP 8.5 Scenario generated from Korea Meteorological Administration. Overall results of M. alternatus distribution simulation were fit in the actual distribution; however, overestimation in Seoul Metropolitan area and Chungnam Region were shown. Gradual expansion of M. alternatus would be expected to nationwide from western and southern coastal areas of Korea peninsula.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.198-205
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• 2015

Impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems range from changes in physiological processes of aquatic organisms to species distribution. In this study, MaxEnt that has high prediction power without nonoccurrence data was used to simulate fish distribution changes in the Geum river watershed according to climate change. The fish distribution in 2050 and 2100 was predicted with RCP 8.5 climate change scenario using fish occurrence data (a total of 47 species, including 17 endemic species) from 2007 to 2009 at 134 survey points and 9 environmental variables (monthly lowest, highest and average air temperature, monthly precipitation, monthly lowest, highest and average water temperature, altitude and slope). The fitness of MaxEnt modeling was successful with the area under the relative operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.798, and environmental variables that showed a high level of prediction were as follows: altitude, monthly average precipitation and monthly lowest water temperature. As climate change proceeds until 2100, the probability of occurrence for Odontobutis interrupta and Acheilognathus yamatsuatea (endemic species) decreases whereas the probability of occurrence for Microphysogobio yaluensis and Lepomis macrochirus (exotic species) increases. In particular, five fish species (Gnathopogon strigatus, Misgurnus mizolepis, Erythroculter erythropterus, A. yamatsuatea and A. koreensis) were expected to become extinct in the Geum river watershed in 2100. In addition, the species rich area was expected to move to the northern part of the Geum river watershed. These findings suggest that water temperature increase caused by climate change may disturb the aquatic ecosystem of Geum river watershed significantly.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.427-437
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• 2019

Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.