Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5656/KSAE.2016.11.0.053

Predicting Potential Distribution of Monochamus alternatus Hope responding to Climate Change in Korea  

Kim, Jaeuk (Korea Environment Institute)
Jung, Huicheul (Korea Environment Institute)
Park, Yong-Ha (Korea Environment Institute)
Publication Information
Korean journal of applied entomology / v.55, no.4, 2016 , pp. 501-511 More about this Journal
Abstract
Predicting potential spatial distribution of Monochamus alternatus, a major insect vector of the pine wilt disease, is essential to the spread of the pine wilt disease. The purpose of this study was to predict future domestic spatial distribution of M. alternatus by using the CLIMEX model considering the temperature condition of the vector's life history. To predict current distribution of M. alternatus, the administrative divisions data where the pine wilt spots caused by M. alternatus were found from 2006 to 2014 and the 10-year mean climate observed data in 68 meteorological stations from 2006 to 2015 were used. Eight parameter sets were chosen based on growth temperature range of M. alternatus reported in preceding researches. Error matrix method was utilized to select and simulate the parameter sets showing the highest correlation with the actual distribution. Regarding the future distribution of M. alternatus, two periods of 2050s(2046-2055) and 2090s(2091-2100) were predicted using the projected climate data of RCP 8.5 Scenario generated from Korea Meteorological Administration. Overall results of M. alternatus distribution simulation were fit in the actual distribution; however, overestimation in Seoul Metropolitan area and Chungnam Region were shown. Gradual expansion of M. alternatus would be expected to nationwide from western and southern coastal areas of Korea peninsula.
Keywords
Pine wilt disease; Monochamus alternatus; Potential habitat; CLIMEX model;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Igarashi, M., 1980. Biology of the pine sawyer in Tohoku District (IV). Accumulative heat requirement for egg incubation. Trans. 32nd Ann. Meet. Tohoku Branch Jpn. For. Soc.. 187-188. [Japanese Literature]
2 Jaramillo, J., Muchugu, E., Vega, F.E., Davis, A., Borgemeister, C., Chabi-Olaye, A., 2011. Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa. PLoS ONE. 6(9), e24528. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024528.   DOI
3 Jung, C.S. et al., 2009. Study on the ecological characteristic of pine wilt disease. Research Report of National Institute of Forest Science. No. 9-21 (Translated to English by authors).
4 Kimura, S., 1974. Development and growth of the pine sawyer in relation to temperature (I). The influence of low temperatures on the larval period of pupation. Trans. 26th Ann. Meet. Tohoku Branch Jpn. For. Soc.. 141-144. [Japanese Literature]
5 Kimura, S., Yanbe, T., Igarashi, M., 1975. Distribution and life history of the pine sawyer in Tohoku District. Ann. Rep. Tohoku Branch Gov. For. Exp. Stn.. 16, 101-108. [Japanese Literature]
6 Kobayashi, F., Yamane, A., Ikeda, T., 1984. The Japanese Pine Sawyer Beetle as the Vector of Pine Wilt Disease. Annu. Rev. Entomol.. 29, 115-135.   DOI
7 Kocmankova, E., Trnka, M., Eitzinger, J., Formayer, H., Dubrovsky, M., Semeradovaa, D., Zalud, Z., Juroch, J., Mozny, M., 2010. Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region. Clim. Res.. 44, doi: 10.3354/cr00905.   DOI
8 Korea Forest Service, 2015. The Statistical Yearbook of Forestry 2015.
9 Kriticos, D.J., Maywald, G.F., Yonow, T., Zurcher, E.J., Herrmann, N.I., Sutherst, R.W., 2015. CLIMEX Version 4: Exploring the effects of climate on plants, animals and diseases. CSIRO, Canberra.
10 Kriticos, D.J., Sutherst, R.W., Brown, J.R., Adkins, S.W., Maywald, G.F., 2003. Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in Australia. J. Appl. Ecol. 40, 111-124.   DOI
11 Lee, Y.H. et al., 2014. Project of pine wilt disease and control policy. Korea Rural Economic Institute of Agricultural Policy Focus. No. 87 (Translated to English by authors).
12 Kwon, T.S., Ryu, S.B., Lee, C.K., Shin, S.C., Chung, Y.J., Park, Y.S., Lim, J.H., Sim, S.J., Kwon, Y.D., Son, S.K., Lee, K.Y., Kim, Y.T., Park, J.W., Shin, C.H., 2006. Distribution patterns of Monochamus alternatus and M. saltuarius (Coleoptera : Cerambycidae) in Korea. J. Korean For. Soc.. 95, 543-550.
13 Kwon, T.S. et al., 2008. The control of pine wilt disease using clear cut method. Research data of National Institute of Forest Science. No. 322 (Translated to English by authors).
14 Lee, S.M. et al., 2010. Study on the control of pine wilt disease in Korea. Research Report of National Institute of Forest Science. No. 10-33 (Translated to English by authors).
15 Li, M., Liu, M., Liu, M., Ju, Y., 2010. Prediction of Pine Wilt Disease in Jiangsu Province Based on Web Dataset and GIS. Wang et al. (Eds.): Web Information Systems and Mining 2010, LNCS 6318, 146-153.
16 Ma, F., Gong, G., He, Y., Qiu, G., Wang, Z., 2014. The potential geographic distribution of Phytophthora hibernalis Carne based on the CLIMEX in China. Plant Protection. 40, 138-142. [Chinese Literature]
17 Nagai, M., Enda, N., 1974. Changes in oviposition activities of the pine sawyer. Trans. 85th Ann. Meet. Jpn. For. Soc.. 225-226. [Japanese Literature]
18 Nakamura, K., Noguchi, E., 2006. Estimating the distribution of naturally suppressed area of pine wilt disease epidemic using a thermal index. The Japanese Forest Society Congress 117. PF16. [Japanese Literature]
19 Cheng, G., Lv, Q., Feng, Y., Li, Y., Wang, Y., Zhang, X., 2015. Temporal and Spatial Dynamic Pattern of Pine Wilt Disease Distribution in China Predicted under Climate Change Scenario. Scientia Silvae Sinicae. 51, 119-126. [Chinese Literature]
20 Barbosa, F.G., Schneck, F., Melo, A.S., 2012. Use of ecological niche models to predict the distribution of invasive species: a scientometric analysis. Braz. J. Biol.. 72, 821-829.   DOI
21 Park, J.J., Mo, H.H., Lee, G.S., Lee, S.E., Lee, J.H., Cho, K.J., 2014. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Thrips palmi in Korea, using the CLIMEX model. Entomol. Res.. 44, 47-57.   DOI
22 National Institute of Forest Science, 2014. NEW Ecology & Control of Pine Wilt Disease. No. 14-22 (Translated to English by authors).
23 Okuda, M., 1973. Development and growth of pine sawyer larvae under different temperature conditions. Trans. 24th Ann. Meet. Kansai Branch Jpn. For. Soc.. 146-149. [Japanese Literature]
24 Olfert, O., Hallett, R., Weiss, R.M., Soroka, J., Goodfellow, S., 2006. Potential distribution and relative abundance of swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, an invasive pest in Canada. Entomol. Exp. Appl.. 120, 221-228.   DOI
25 Park, N.C., Moon, Y.S., Lee, S.M., Park, J.D., Kim, K.S., 1992. Effects of Temperature on the Development of Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Research Report of Forest Research Institute. 44, 151-156.
26 Shabani, F., Kumar, L., Esmaeili, A., 2013. Use of CLIMEX, Land use and Topography to Refine Areas Suitable for Date Palm Cultivation in Spain under Climate Change Scenarios. J. Earth Sci. Clim. Change. 4, http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000145.   DOI
27 Song, H.M., Xu, R.M., 2006. Global potential geographical distribution of Monochamus alternatus. Chinese Bulletin of Entomology. 43, 535-539. [Chinese Literature]
28 Sturrock, R.N., Frankel, S.J., Brown, A.V., Hennon, P.E., Kliejunas, J.T., Lewis, K.J., Worrall, J.J., Woods, A.J., 2011. Climate change and forest diseases. Plant Pathol.. 60, 133-149.   DOI
29 Choi, W.I. et al., 2015. Annual Report of Monitoring for Forest Insect Pests and Diseases in Korea. Research Report of National Institute of Forest Science. No. 15-02 (Translated to English by authors).
30 Vera, M.T., Rodriguez, R., Segura, D.F., Cladera, J.L., Sutherst, R.W., 2002. Potential geographical distribution of the mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae), with emphasis on Argentina and Australia. Environ. Entomol.. 31, 1009-1022.   DOI
31 Chung, Y.J., 2015. We should eradicate pine wilt disease. Korean society of hazard mitigation. 15, 124-128.
32 Davis, E.E., Albercht, E.M., Venette, R.C., 2008. Monochamus alternatus. In: Venette, R.C. Exotic Pine Pests: Survey Reference, USDA Forest Service.
33 Enda, N., 1976. Biology of the Japanese pine sawyer, Monochamus alternatus Hope. Shinrin Boeki (Forest Pests). 25, 182-185. [Japanese Literature]
34 Hanks, L.M., 1999. Influence of the larval host plant on reproductive strategies of cerambycid beetles. Annu. Rev. Entomol.. 44, 483-505.   DOI
35 Enda, N., 1980. Period from pupation to emergence of the pine sawyer. Trans. 32nd Ann. Meet. Kanto Branch Jpn. For. Soc.. 91-92. [Japanese Literature]
36 Estay, S.A., Labra, F.A., Sepulveda, R.D. Bacigalupe, L.D., 2014. Evaluating habitat suitability for the establishment of Monochamus spp. through climate-based niche modeling. PLoS ONE. 9, e102592. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102592.   DOI
37 Feng, Y., Zhang, H., Lu, Q., Liang, J., Zhang, X., 2009. Quantification of Suitability Distribution Region of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China. Scientia Silvae Sinicae. 45, 65-71. [Chinese Literature]
38 Hoddle, M.S., 2004. The potential adventive geographic range of glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca coagulata and the grape pathogen Xylella fastidiosa: implications for California and other grape growing regions of the world. Crop Prot.. 23, 691-699.   DOI
39 Hong, S.H., Lee, S.D., 2015. Report on Forests Damaged Due to Cutting Trees Infected by Pine Wilt Disease. Korean J. Environ. Ecol.. 29, 590-598.   DOI
40 Wang, Y., Watson, G.W., Zhang, R., 2010. The potential distribution of an invasive mealybug Phenacoccus solenopsis and its threat to cotton in Asia. Agric. For. Entomol.. 12, 403-416.   DOI
41 Ye, J.X., Zhou, R.L., Wu, M.S., Liu, Z.J., Shi, L., 2013. Spatial Simulation of the Adaptability of Monochamus alternatus Hope in Yunnan Province. Forest Research. 26(4), 420-425. [Chinese Literature]
42 Stehman, S.V., 1997. Selecting and Interpreting Measures of Thematic Classification Accuracy. Remote. Sens. Environ.. 62, 77-89.   DOI