• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.127-135
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• 2018

Climate change can affect variables related to the life cycle of insects, including growth, development, survival, reproduction and distribution. As it encourages alien insects to rapidly spread and settle, climate change is regarded as one of the direct causes of decreased biodiversity because it disturbed ecosystems and reduces the population of native species. Hypera postica caused a great deal of damage in the southern provinces of Korea after it was first identified on Jeju lsland in the 1990s. In recent years, the number of individuals moving to estivation sites has concerned scientists due to the crop damage and national proliferation. In this study, we examine how climate change could affect inhabitation of H. postica. The MaxEnt model was applied to estimate potential distributions of H. postica using future climate change scenarios, namely, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As variables of the model, this study used six bio-climates (bio3, bio6, bio10, bio12, bio14, and bio16) in consideration of the ecological characteristics of 66 areas where inhabitation of H. postica was confirmed from 2015 to 2017, and in consideration of the interrelation between prediction variables. The fitness of the model was measured at a considered potentially useful level of 0.765 on average, and the warmest quarter has a high contribution rate of 60-70%. Prediction models (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) results for the year 2050 and 2070 indicated that H. postica habitats are projected to expand across the Korean peninsula due to increasing temperatures.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.189-198
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• 2018

In 21th century, climate change is one of the fundamental issue. Greenhouses gases are pointed as the main cause of climate change. Soil play a vital role of carbon sink and also can be a huge source of greenhouse gases defense on the management. Flux of greenhouse gases is not the only factor can be changed by climate change. Climate change can alter proper management. Temperature change will modify crop planting and harvesting date. Other management skills like fertilizer, manure, irrigation, tillage can also be changed with climate change. In this study, greenhouse gases emission in rice paddy in South Korea is simulated with DNDC model from 2011 - 2100 years. Climate for future is simulated with RCP 8.5 scenario for understanding the effect of climate change to greenhouse gases emission. Various rice paddy flooding techniques were applied to find proper management for future management. With conventional flooding technique, climate change increase greenhouse gases emission highly. Marginal flooding can decrease large amount of greenhouse gases emission and even it still increases with climate change, it has the smallest increasing ratio. If we suppose the flooding technique will change for best grain yield, dominant flooding technique will be different from conventional flooding to marginal flooding. The management change will reduce greenhouse gases emission. The result of study shows the possibility to increase greenhouse gases emission with climate change and climate change adaptation can show apposite result compared without the adaptation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.594-598
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• 2016

기후변화는 사회 경제 환경부분에 영향을 미치며 수자원 부문에서는 안정적인 물 공급에 위기가 발생할 것으로 전망되고 있다. 인간이 이용하는 수자원은 강우에 의해 가장 민감하게 반응하므로 지속적이고 안정적인 수자원을 이용하기 위해서는 통합적이고 탄력적인 대응방안이 요구되고 있다. 특히 우리나라와 같은 여름에 집중적 강우가 나타나는 지역에서의 용수수급에 대한 중요성은 더욱더 커질 것이다. 또한 앞으로 1인당 물 수요량의 증가할 것으로 예상됨에 따라 용수수급 관리를 위한 적응전략 수립은 반드시 필요할 것이다. 본 연구에서는 수문모형인 SWAT을 이용하여 자연유량을 산출하기 위해 SWAT-CUP을 이용한 검보정을 수행하여 모형의 적용성을 검토하였다. 기후변화 시나리오인 RCP시나리오를 이용하여 기간별 자연유량을 산정하였다. 유역의 생활용수, 공업용수, 농업용수 및 하천유지유량 데이터를 수집하여 물 분배 모형인 K-MODSIM 모형에 적용하였다. 2011년부터 2100년까지 월별로 유역의 물 수급의 과부족을 산정하였다. 용수의 부족이 나타난 지역에 대한 수요관리와 공급관리 방안을 수립하였고 대안을 적용한 후 용수 공급에 미치는 영향을 다시 분석하였다. 수문모의 결과 RCP 시나리오별로 자연유량을 산정한 결과 시간의 흐름에 따라 물 공급량이 감소할 것으로 분석되었고 계절별로 차이는 더 크게 나타났다. 특히 갈수기인 봄과 겨울철의 유량감소가 나타났다. 모의된 월별 자연유량을 K-MODSIM에 입력하여 월별 모의를 수행한 결과 각 용수별로 부족현상이 나타났다. 생활용수의 부족이 나타난 경우 수요관리를 통해 물 수요량을 줄이는 적응전략을 수립하였고 부족량이 크게 나타나는 농업용수와 하천유지유량의 경우 공급량을 늘리는 공급관리를 통한 적응전략을 수립하여 효과분석을 수행하였다. 단계별로 용수공급에 대한 효과가 나타났다. 하지만 본 연구에서는 경제성 분석을 제외한 용수공급에 중점을 둔 적응전략을 수립하였으므로 이를 포함한 분석이 포함된다면 실제 용수공급 대안 선정을 위한 의사결정에 도움이 될 수 있을 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.224-224
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• 2019

국제기상기구의 Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)의 관점에서 살펴보면 국내의 기상 기후 정보는 기상청을 중심으로 관측 자료와 중장기 예측 및 기후변화 시나리오 정보 등의 다양한 시간규모로 생산되고 있다. 하지만 사용자가 직접적으로 다양한 기후정보를 상세화하여 활용하기 위해서는 기후정보의 구축 및 전처리를 수행해야하는 어려움이 있다. 따라서 APEC Climate Center (APCC)에서 다학제 융합 기반 기후정보 서비스를 중심으로 사용자 인터페이스 플랫폼 (User Interface Platform: UIP)의 기술적 플랫폼으로 APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS)를 개발하였다. AIMS는 사용자의 관점으로 상세화를 수행할 수 있고, 다양한 응용 분야에 적용하기 쉽게 데이터를 생성하여 연구에 도움을 주고 있다. 본 연구는 AIMS에서 제공하고 있는 기존의 국가별로 제공하는 제 5차 결합 기후모델 비교사업 (The $5^{th}$ phase of the coupled model intercomparision project, CMIP5)에서 해석한 전구기후모델 (General Circulation Model, GCM)의 통계적 상세화 방법인 Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM)과 Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM)를 포함하여 AIMS에 새롭게 추가 된 통계적 상세화 방법인 Bias Correction and Stochastic Analog (BCSA) 방법을 소개하고자 한다. 또한 60개의 종관기상관측 (Automated Surface Observing System, ASOS)자료를 중심으로 생성한 세 가지 통계적 상세화방법의 과거재현성과 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 시나리오를 활용한 미래 불확실성 평가 결과를 이용하여 연구자들의 맞춤형 자료를 생산하고 평가하는데 도움을 줌으로써 다양한 기후자료의 효과적인 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.103-113
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• 2018

In this study, Construction work is mainly done outdoors, so earth works, reinforced concrete works, etc. are Non-Working Days to rainfall. In particular, changes in rainfall due to global warming have made air calculation more difficult. Therefore, when establishing the process plan, the change of the rainfall in the area should be identified and Non-Working Days should be calculated. In this study, the time of rainfall change point was identified using the meteorological 'observation' data from 1960 to 2016 in Incheon and RCP 4.5, 'weather forecast' data from 2018 to 2074, Year rainfall and seasonal rainfall. The results showed that rainfall changed point in 1972, 1988, 2013, 2038, 2050 and 2069. In particular, it has been found that non-working days due to rainfall has big changed point as of 2013, 2038 and 2069.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.12
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• pp.955-967
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• 2023

Climate change is expected to amplify the future flooding risks in rural areas which could have devastating implications for the sustainability of the agricultural sector and food security in South Korea. In this study, spatially disaggregated and statistically bias-corrected outputs from three global circulation models (GCMs) archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and 6) were used to project the future climate by 2100 under medium and extreme scenarios. A hydrological model was developed to simulate the flood phenomena at the Shindae experimental site located in the Chungcheongbuk Province, South Korea. Hourly rainfall, inundation depth, and discharge data collected during the two extreme events that occurred in 2021 and 2022 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrological model. Probability analysis of extreme rainfall data suggested a higher likelihood of intense and unprecedented extreme rainfall events, which would be particularly notable during 2051-2100. Consequently, the flooded area under an inundation depth of >700 mm increased by 13-36%, 54-74%, and 71-90% during 2015-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, respectively. Severe flooding probability was notably higher under extreme CMIP6 scenarios than under their CMIP5 counterparts.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.433-442
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• 2016

In this study, we examine future changes in surface radiation associated with cloud amount and aerosol emission over East Asia. Data in this study is HadGEM2-CC (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2, Carbon Cycle) simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6/4.5/8.5. Results show that temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmosphere $CO_2$. At the end of $21^{st}$ century (2070~2099) relative to the end of $20^{st}$ century (1981~2005), changes in temperature and precipitation rate are expected to increase by $+1.85^{\circ}C/+6.6%$ for RCP2.6, $+3.09^{\circ}C/+8.5%$ for RCP4.5, $+5.49^{\circ}C/10%$ for RCP8.5. The warming results from increasing Net Down Surface Long Wave Radiation Flux (LW) and Net Down Surface Short Wave Radiation Flux (SW) as well. SW change increases mainly from reduced total Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and low-level cloud amount. LW change is associated with increasing of atmospheric $CO_2$ and total cloud amount, since increasing cloud amounts are related to absorb LW radiation and remit the energy toward the surface. The enhancement of precipitation is attributed by increasing of high-level cloud amount. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension. Expansion of C3 grass and shrub is distinct over East Asia, inducing large latent heat flux increment.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.109-119
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• 2016

This study was conducted to analyze the effect of yearly changes in growing degree days (GDD) on the potential distribution and growth of Quercus mongolica in Korea. Annual tree-ring growth data of Quercus mongolica collected by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory were first organized to identify the range of current distribution for the species. Yearly GDD was calculated based on daily mean temperature data from 1951 to 2010 for counties with current distribution of Q. monglica. When tree-ring growth data were analyzed through cluster analysis based on similarity of climatic conditions, seven clusters were identified. Yearly GDD based on daily mean temperature data of each county were calculated for each of the cluster to predict the change of potential distribution. Temperature effect indices were estimated to predict the effect of GDD on the growth patterns. In addition, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of climate change scenarios were adopted to estimate yearly GDD and temperature effect indices from 2011 to 2100. The results indicate that the areas with low latitude and elevation exceed the upper threshold of GDD for the species due to the increase of mean temperature with climate change. It was also predicted that the steep increase of temperature will have negative influences on tree-ring growth, and will move the potential distribution of the species to areas with higher latitude or higher elevation, especially after the year of 2050. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics and for predicting changes in the potential distribution of Q. mongolica caused by climate change.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.16-29
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• 2016

The total area of paddy field was estimated to be 55 % of the cultivated lands in South Korea, which is approximately 1 million hectares. Organisms inhabiting paddy fields if they are sensitive to environmental changes can be environmental indicator of paddy fields. Biological indicators such as phenology and distributional range are evaluated as intuitive and quantitative method to analyze the impact of climate change. This study aims to estimate flight time change of Hydrophilidae species' based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Unmanned monitoring systems were installed in Haenam, Buan, Dangjin and Cheorwon relative to the latitudinal gradient. In the three regions excepting Cheorwon, it was able to measure the abundance of flying Hydrochara affinis and Sternolophus rufipes. Degree-day for the flight time was determined based either on field measurement values and estimates of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s from KMA climate change scenario data. As a result, it is found that date of both species of initial flight becomes 15 days earlier, that of peak flight becomes 22 days earlier and that of final flight does 27 days earlier in 2080s compared to 2020s. The climate change impact on flight time is greater in coastal area, rural area and valley than inland area, urban area and plan. H. affinis and S. rufipes can be used as climate change indicator species.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.328-328
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• 2018

오염총량관리제도에서 목표수질을 설정하고, 허용부하량을 산정하기 위해서는 단위유역별 오염부하량 할당의 기준이 되는 유량인 기준유량 산정이 필수적이며, 현재 BOD는 과거 10년 유황곡선의 평균저수량, T-P는 과거 10년 유황곡선의 평균저수량 또는 평균평수량을 이용하고 있다. 한편, 미국 EPA에서는 TMDL 수립 시 하천에서 발생할 수 있는 다양한 유황을 반영할 수 있도록 전 기간의 유량자료를 활용하여 유황곡선을 작성하여 기준유량을 산정하도록 제안하고 있으며, 이와 같은 유황곡선 작성방법의 차이로 인해 기준유량이 다르게 나타날 수 있다. 또한, 기후변화로 인해 강우패턴이 변하고, 하천의 유황도 변하므로 이를 고려한 기준유량 도출이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 유황곡선 작성방법에 따른 기준유량 변화를 분석하고, 기후변화가 하천의 기준유량 변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 한다. 유량자료는 HSPF 모형을 이용하여 모의하였으며, 모형의 입력자료 및 보 검정에 필요한 유량자료는 물환경정보시스템의 자료를 바탕으로 구축하였다. 수문 모의기간은 모형의 안정화 기간을 포함하여 2004년부터 2015년까지로 설정하였으며, 최근 5년(2011-2015년)은 보정기간, 과거 5년(2006-2010년)은 검정기간으로 설정하여 보정 및 검정을 수행하였다. 미래 강수량 자료는 기상청에서 제공하는 RCP 시나리오를 적용한 기후변화 시나리오를 사용하여 구축하였으며, 본 연구에서는 RCP4.5를 사용하여 자료를 구축하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 기준유량을 도출하는데 있어 참고자료가 될 것으로 사료된다.