• 제목/요약/키워드: Quantitative risk

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Microbial Modeling in Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) System: A Review

  • Min, Sea-Cheol;Choi, Young-Jin
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.279-293
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    • 2009
  • Quantitative risk assessments are related to implementing hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) by its potential involvement in identifying critical control points (CCPs), validating critical limits at a CCP, enabling rational designs of new processes, and products to meet required level of safety, and evaluating processing operations for verification procedures. The quantitative risk assessment is becoming a standard research tool which provides useful predictions and analyses on microbial risks and, thus, a valuable aid in implementing a HACCP system. This paper provides a review of microbial modeling in quantitative risk assessments, which can be applied to HACCP systems.

CFD code를 이용한 철도터널 화재 위험도 평가 (The Quantitative Risk Assessment for Railroad-tunnel Fire Incidents by using CFD code)

  • 김학범;이덕희;장용준;정우성
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산유체공학회 2011년 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.169-172
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    • 2011
  • Recently, railroad long tunnels are increasing and growing longer due to topological feathers like a lot of mountain in Korea. But fire disaster of a long tunnel cause many people to injury and death. For that reason, at the early design stage of a long tunnel, risk assessment and mitigation measure of risk for satisfying tunnel safety are required. According to the railroad facility safety standard (Korean MLTM Announcement No. 2006-395), risk assessment for railroad-tunnel fire should be performed when design stage. Therefore, various methods of risk assessment for tunnel fire have been studied and applied. In the paper, QRA(Quantitative Risk Analysis) for fire risk assessment by using CFD code is presented and the usefulness of CFD is discussed.

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Analysis of Marine Vessel Collision Risk based on Quantitative Risk Assessment

  • Koo, Bon Guk
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.319-324
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    • 2018
  • The collision problem is one of the design factors that must be carefully considered for the risk of collision occurring during the operation of ships and offshore structures. This paper presents the main results of the ship collision study, and its main goal is to analyze potential crash scenarios that may occur in the FLNG (Floating Liquefied Natural Gas) considering the likelihood and outcome. Consideration being given to vessels visiting the FLNG and surrounding vessels navigating around, such as functionally supported vessels and offloading carriers. The scope includes vessels visiting the FLNG facility such as in-field support vessels and off-loading carriers, as well as third party passing vessels. In this study, based on QRA (quantitative risk assessment), basic research methods and information on collision are provided. Based on the assumptions and methodologies documented in this study, it has been possible to clarify the frequency of collision and the damage category according to the type of visiting ship. Based on these results, the risk assessment results related to the collision have been derived.

수소충전소 성능평가 장비 안전성 평가 연구 (Risk Assessment for Performance Evaluation System of Hydrogen Refueling Station)

  • 강승규;이동훈
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.232-239
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    • 2022
  • This study performed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment of equipment for evaluating the protocol of hydrogen refueling stations and suggested measures to improve safety. Hazard and operability study was performed for qualitative risk assessment, and Hy-KoRAM was used for quantitative risk assessment. Through a qualitative risk assessment, additional ventilation devices were installed, simultaneous venting of the storage container was prohibited, and the number of repeated refilling of the evaluation equipment was identified to manage the number of fillings of the container. Through quantitative risk assessment, the area around the device was set as a restricted area when evaluating the station, and measures were suggested to reduce the frequency of accidents.

도로터널 방재시스템 개발 - 자연환기를 수행하는 중규모 도로터널의 정량적 위험도평가관한 연구 - (Development of safety system for Road Tunnel - The study of Quantitative risk assessment for middle scale road tunnel with natural ventilation system -)

  • 유지오;신현준;김종원
    • 대한설비공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한설비공학회 2008년도 동계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.67-70
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    • 2008
  • As a part of the project on road tunnel fire safety system development, Quantitative Risk Assessment program was developed. In this study, We carried out Quantitative Risk Assessment with this program by using a factor of cross passage interval, warning announcement time and congestion ratio etc for 1km tunnel with natural ventilation. In the case of 250m below of cross passage interval, Risk value due to warning announcement time was a slightly changed. but if cross passage interval is more than 250m, expected fatalities in the same HRR(heat release rate) was sharp increased. As a result, Quantitative Risk Assessment program which was developed in this research project is possible to risk assessment with ventilation type, cross passage for evacuation and detection system response property etc. hereafter, this program look forward to use as a tool for road tunnel performance based design.

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터널 건설 프로젝트 리스크 분석 및 리스크 정량화 모델 개발에 관한 연구 (Risk Factors Analysis and Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Tunnel Construction Project)

  • 정승아;안성진
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.363-364
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    • 2023
  • The tunnel construction projects is demanded more efficient risk management measures and loss forecasts to prepare for risk losses from an increase in the trend of tunnel construction. This study aims to analyze the risk factors that caused the loss of material in actual tunnel construction and to develop a quantified predictive loss model, based on the past loss record of tunnel construction projects.

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A rolling analysis on the prediction of value at risk with multivariate GARCH and copula

  • Bai, Yang;Dang, Yibo;Park, Cheolwoo;Lee, Taewook
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.605-618
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    • 2018
  • Risk management has been a crucial part of the daily operations of the financial industry over the past two decades. Value at Risk (VaR), a quantitative measure introduced by JP Morgan in 1995, is the most popular and simplest quantitative measure of risk. VaR has been widely applied to the risk evaluation over all types of financial activities, including portfolio management and asset allocation. This paper uses the implementations of multivariate GARCH models and copula methods to illustrate the performance of a one-day-ahead VaR prediction modeling process for high-dimensional portfolios. Many factors, such as the interaction among included assets, are included in the modeling process. Additionally, empirical data analyses and backtesting results are demonstrated through a rolling analysis, which help capture the instability of parameter estimates. We find that our way of modeling is relatively robust and flexible.

중소형 건설사업장의 위험 정량화 모델 개발을 위한 기초 연구 (A Basic Study on the Model Development of Quantitative Risk Assessment for Small and Medium-sized Construction Sites.)

  • 이지엽;바트바가나;손기영
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.206-207
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    • 2022
  • Currently, safety accidents in construction area are managed regardless of the size. Therefore, the objective of this study is to conduct for developing the quantitative risk assessment according to large and small and medium-sized construction sites. The scope of this study is limited to the fall accidents which is the biggest accidents in the construction sites. the regression analysis was conducted based on the collected data. As a result, it was confirmed that there was a statistically significant difference between larce and small and medium-sized construction sites. This study is expected to be used as basic data for research on the development of a risk quantitative model for small and medium-sized construction sites in the future.

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철도터널에서 위험인자가 정량적 위험도 평가에 미치는 영향 (The effect of a risk factor on quantitative risk assessment in railway tunnel)

  • 유지오;김진수;이동호;신현준
    • 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2015
  • 철도터널에 대한 정량적 위험도 평가는 다양한 시나리오를 작성하고 사고발생빈도 및 사고의 결과의 곱으로 위험도를 정량화하는 것이다. 정량적 위험도 평가는 터널제원, 화재특성, 제연방법, 제연과 대피방향의 관계 등 다양한 인자에 의해서 영향을 받는다. 이에 본 연구에서는 터널연장(2, 3, 4, 5, 6 km) 및 경사도(5, 15, 25‰)를 변수로 하여 제연방법 및 제연과 대피방향의 관계가 정량적 위험도 평가에 미치는 영향을 검토하였다. 이 결과로 복선터널 단면(단면적 $97m^2$)에서는 열차화재시 열차중 화재차량의 위치와 무관하게 제연반대방향으로 대피하는 것이 가장 효과적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이와 같은 조건에서 기계환기시 위험도지수가 자연환기 보다 약 1/10까지 감소하는 것으로 평가되었다.

환경오염물질의 건강위해성 평가 (Health Risk Assessment on Environmental Pollutants)

  • 신동천
    • 환경위생공학
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 1993
  • Methodology for health risk assessment has been developed by governmental agencies and research institutions in the United States concerning environmental and industrial health such as Environmental Protection Agency, Pood and Drug Administration, and Occupational Safety and Health Administration. The basic concept, process, and scientific rational of the health risk assessment are discussed in order to introduce this field of research for future application to risk assessment and management in Korea. As environmental criteria for most of the environmental carcinogens and nonfarcinogens are set based on the quantitative risk assessment, this quantitative methodology should be emphasized and studied in Korean situation.

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