• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.118-124
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• 2012

This study was conducted for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Clostridium perfringens with consumption on ham and sausage products in Korea, according to Codex guidelines. Frame-work model as product-retail-consumption pathway composed with initial contamination level, the time and temperature in distributions, and consumption data sets for ham and sausage products and also used the published predictive growth and dose-response models for Cl. perfringens. The simulation model and formulas with Microsoft@ Excel spreadsheet program using these data sets was developed and simulated with @RISK. The probability of foodborne disease by Cl. perfringens with consumption of the ham and sausage products per person per day was estimated as $3.97{\times}10^{-11}{\pm}1.80{\times}10^{-9}$. There were also noted that limitations in this study and suggestion for development of QMRA in the future in Korea.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.484-491
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• 2005

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) analyzes potential hazard of microorganisms on public health and offers structured approach to assess risks associated with microorganisms in foods. This paper addresses specific risk management questions associated with Staphylococcus aureus in kimbab and improvement and dissemination of QMRA methodology, QMRA model was developed by constructing four nodes from retail to table pathway. Predictive microbial growth model and survey data were combined with probabilistic modeling to simulate levels of S. aureus in kimbab at time of consumption, Due to lack of dose-response models, final level of S. aureus in kimbeb was used as proxy for potential hazard level, based on which possibility of contamination over this level and consumption level of S. aureus through kimbab were estimated as 30.7% and 3.67 log cfu/g, respectively. Regression sensitivity results showed time-temperature during storage at selling was the most significant factor. These results suggested temperature control under $10^{\circ}C$ was critical control point for kimbab production to prevent growth of S. aureus and showed QMRA was useful for evaluation of factors influencing potential risk and could be applied directly to risk management.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.65 no.5
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• pp.1024-1039
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• 2023

In this study, we performed a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Salmonella through intake of egg consumption after cooking (dry-heat, moist-heat, and raw consumption). Egg samples (n = 201) from retail markets were analyzed for the presence of Salmonella. In addition, temperature and time were investigated during egg transit, storage, and display. A predictive model was developed to characterize the kinetic behavior of Salmonella in eggs, and data on egg consumption and frequency were collected. Eventually, the data was simulated to estimate egg-related foodborne illnesses. Salmonella was not found in any of the 201 egg samples. Thus, the estimated initial contamination level was -4.0 Log CFU/g. With R² values of 0.898 and 0.922, the constructed predictive models were adequate for describing the fate of Salmonella in eggs throughout distribution and storage. Eggs were consumed raw (1.5%, 39.2 g), dry-heated (57.5%, 43.0 g), and moist-heated (41%, 36.1 g). The probability of foodborne Salmonella illness from the consumption of cooked eggs was evaluated to be 6.8×10^-10. Additionally, the probability of foodborne illness not applied cooking methods was 1.9×10^-7, indicating that Salmonella can be reduced by cooking. Therefore, the risk of Salmonella infection through consumption of eggs after cooking might be low in S. Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.227-227
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• 2023

상수도 관망의 수질 관리는 매우 중요한 목표이지만, 2019년도 적수 사태를 비롯하여 여러 수질사고를 경험하고 있다. 이러한 수질 사고는 내부의 각종 부착물 및 침전물들로 인해서 발생하거나 파손된 관로를 통해 외부에서 유입될 수도 있다. 수질 사고는 다양한 경로를 통해 발생할 수 있으며 외부에서의 바이러스 유입의 가능성 역시 늘 존재하고 있다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 상수도 관망으로의 잠재적인 바이러스 유입에 따른 위험도 분석 체계를 구현하였으며, 다양한 바이러스 유입에 따른 상수도 관망 위험도의 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 제안한 분석 체계는 상수도 관망의 주요 소독 물질인 염소와 바이러스의 반응을 모의할 수 있도록 EPANET-MSX 모형을 탑재하였으며, 위험도 분석을 위한 QMRA(Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment)를 적용하였다. 바이러스 유입 시나리오 구축을 위해 상수도 관망 내 유입되거나 인체에 유해 한 영향을 줄 수 있는 바이러스를 우선 선별 하였고, 인체에의 영향 및 염소와의 반응에 대해 정리하였다. 또한 바이러스는 모든 절점에서 유입이 가능한 것으로 가정하였으며, 최악의 상황 모의를 위해 바이러스가 지속적으로 유입되는 시나리오를 구축하였다. 적용 관망은 미국 내 실제 관망 중 반응계수에 대한검토가 완료된 관망으로 선정하였으며, 관망의 구조 및 탱크의 유무에 따라 분류하여 적용한 인자들의 불확실성 및 경향을 파악하기 위한 MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation)를 통해 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 제안한 분석 체계는 향후 수질 사고에 대한 위험도를 최소화할 수 있는 운영에 근거를 제공해 줄 수 있을 것이다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.277-287
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• 2024

Water distribution system (WDS) is exposed to various water quality incidents during its operation. This study utilized Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to analyze the risk associated with potential virus intrusion in WDSs. Additionally, the study determined the location and operation of rechlorination facilities to minimize potential risk. In addition, water quality resilience was calculated to confirm that the chlorine concentration maintains within the target range (0.1-1.0 mg/L) during normal operation. Hydraulic analysis was performed using EPANET, while EPANET-MSX was linked to simulate the reactions between viruses and chlorine. The proposed methodology was applied to the Bellingham network in the United States, where rechlorination facilities capable of injecting chlorine concentrations ranging from 0.5 mg/L to 1.0 mg/L were considered. Results indicated that without rechlorination facilities, the Average risk was 0.0154. However, installing rechlorination facilities and injecting chlorine at a concentration of 1.0 mg/L could reduce the Average risk to 39.1%. It was observed that excessive chlorine injection through rechlorination facilities reduced water quality resilience. Consequently, a rechlorination facility with a concentration of 0.5 mg/L was selected, resulting in a reduction of approximately 20% in average risk. This study provides insights for designing rechlorination facilities to enhance preparedness against potential virus ingress in the future.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.299-304
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• 2014

The dose-response models are important for the quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) because they would enable prediction of infection risk to humans from foodborne pathogens. In this study, we performed a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis to better quantify this association. The meta-analysis applied a final selection of 193 published papers for total 43 species foodborne disease pathogens (bacteria 26, virus 9, and parasite 8 species) which were identified and classified based on the dose-response models related to QMRA studies from PubMed, ScienceDirect database and internet websites during 1980-2012. The main search keywords used the combination "food", "foodborne disease pathogen", "dose-response model", and "quantitative microbiological risk assessment". The appropriate dose-response models for Campylobacter jejuni, pathogenic E. coli O157:H7 (EHEC / EPEC / ETEC), Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio cholera, Rota virus, and Cryptosporidium pavum were beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.15$, ${\beta}=7.59$, fi = 0.72), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.49$, ${\beta}=1.81{\times}10^5$, fi = 0.67) / beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.22$, ${\beta}=8.70{\times}10^3$, fi = 0.40) / beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.18$, ${\beta}=8.60{\times}10^7$, fi = 0.60), exponential (r=$1.18{\times}10^{-10}$, fi = 0.14), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.11$, ${\beta}=6,097$, fi = 0.09), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.21$, ${\beta}=1,120$, fi = 0.15), exponential ($r=7.64{\times}10^{-8}$, fi = 1.00), betapoisson (${\alpha}=0.17$, ${\beta}=1.18{\times}10^5$, fi = 1.00), beta-poisson (${\alpha}=0.25$, ${\beta}=16.2$, fi = 0.57), exponential ($r=1.73{\times}10{-2}$, fi = 1.00), and exponential ($r=1.73{\times}10^{-2}$, fi = 0.17), respectively. Therefore, these results provide the preliminary data necessary for the development of foodborne pathogens QMRA.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.305-311
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• 2014

Minimum infective dose (MID) data has been recognized as an important and absolutely needed in quantitative microbiological assessment (QMRA). In this study, we performed a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis to better quantify this association. The meta-analysis applied a final selection of 82 published papers for total 12 species foodborne disease pathogens (bacteria 9, virus 2, and parasite 1 species) which were identified and classified based on the dose-response models related to QMRA studies from PubMed, ScienceDirect database and internet websites during 1980-2012. The main search keywords used the combination "food", "foodborne disease pathogen", "minimum infective dose", and "quantitative microbiological risk assessment". The appropriate minimum infective dose for B. cereus, C. jejuni, Cl. perfringens, Pathogenic E. coli (EHEC, ETEC, EPEC, EIEC), L. monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., S. aureus, V. parahaemolyticus, Hepatitis A virus, Noro virus, and C. pavum were $10^5cells/g$ (fi = 0.32), 500 cells/g (fi = 0.57), $10^7cells/g$ (fi = 0.56), 10 cells/g (fi = 0.47) / $10^8cells/g$ (fi = 0.71) / $10^6cells/g$ (fi = 0.70) / $10^6cells/g$ (fi = 0.60), $10^2{\sim}10^3cells/g$ (fi = 0.23), 10 cells/g (fi = 0.30), 100 cells/g (fi = 0.32), $10^5cells/g$ (fi = 0.45), $10^6cells/g$ (fi = 0.64), $10{\sim}10^2particles/g$ (fi = 0.33), 10 particles/g (fi = 0.71), and $10{\sim}10^2oocyst/g$ (fi = 0.33), respectively. Therefore, these results provide the preliminary data necessary for the development of foodborne pathogens QMRA.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1028-1033
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• 2010

Wastewater reuse for agricultural irrigation needs treatment and control of pathogens to minimize risks to human health and the environment. In order to evaluate the water quality of UV-treated reclaimed water, this study focused on the relationship between micro-pathogens and particulate matters. MS2 was selected as an index organism because it has similar characteristics to human enteric virus and strong resistance to UV disinfection. The turbidity and suspended solid (SS) were selected for test parameters. In this study, it was performed with different UV doses (30 and $60mJ/cm^2$) for estimation of the MS2 inactivation rate using collimated beam batch experiments in the laboratory. The experiment results by turbidity or SS concentration presented that the increased concentration of them lowered MS2 inactivation. At the turbidity (below 4.27 NTU) and SS (below 1.47 mg/L) of the low level range, the inactivation of 60 UV dose is higher than 30 UV dose. However, at the turbidity and SS of the high level, the increasing UV dose did not show apparent increasing the MS2 inactivation. In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), it can confirm the trend that $P_D$ and turbidity concentrations have positive correlationship at the low concentration, which was also observed in SS. The QMRA can be helpful in communication with public for safe wastewater reuse and be recommended.

• Food Engineering Progress
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.56-63
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• 2009

The aim of this study was to control the outbreak of food pathogen through quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). We used Monte Calro Simulation (MCS) to predict contamination levels of Staphylococcus aureus on the raw materials, equipments and cook in Japanese restaurant located in Seoul. The result of sensitivity analysis showed that the most significant factor for the outbreak of food pathogen was consumption temperature and storage time. In shrimp and octopus sushi, 'consumption temperature' was the highest sensitivity value of 0.419 followed by 'storage time' of 0.374. To increase safety of sushi, consumers should have sushi as soon as possible after cooking. In sushi 'storage time after cooking' was determined as Critical Control Point (CCP). To determine Control Limit (CL), Scenario Analysis (SA) was carried out. In sushi, SA was carried out using storage time as a unit condition. Safety level of S. aureus was set lower than 5 log CFU/g. After 2 hr 'storage time' the number of S. aureus increased to 3.908 log CFU/g. Therefore, 'storage time' of sushi was set as CL in case of room temperature storage.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.287-297
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• 2022

The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption. One hundred fifty-six oyster samples were collected to examine the norovirus prevalence. The oyster samples were inoculated with murine norovirus and stored at 4℃-25℃. A plaque assay determined norovirus titers. The norovirus titers were fitted with the Baranyi model to calculate shoulder period (h) and death rate (Log PFU/g/h). These kinetic parameters were fitted to a polynomial model as a function of temperature. Distribution temperature and time were surveyed, and consumption data were surveyed. A dose-response model was also searched through literature. The simulation model was prepared with these data in @RISK to estimate the probability of norovirus foodborne. One sample of 156 samples was norovirus positive. Thus, the initial contamination level was estimated by the Beta distribution (2, 156), and the level was -5.3 Log PFU/g. The developed predictive models showed that the norovirus titers decreased in oysters under the storage conditions simulated with the Uniform distribution (0.325, 1.643) for time and the Pert distribution (10, 18, 25) for temperature. Consumption ratio of raw oyster was 0.98%, and average consumption amount was 1.82 g, calculated by the Pert distribution [Pert {1.8200, 1.8200, 335.30, Truncate (0, 236.8)}]. ₁F₁ hypergeometric dose-response model [1 - (1 + 2.55 × 10^-3 × dose)^-0.086] was appropriate to evaluate dose-response. The simulation showed that the probability of norovirus foodborne illness by raw oyster consumption was 5.90 × 10^-10 per person per day. The annual socioeconomic cost of consuming raw oysters contaminated with norovirus was not very high.