• 제목/요약/키워드: Purpose of Long-term Investment

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장기 수익률 정보의 활용 방안: 미국 주식형 펀드를 대상으로 (The Way to Use Information on Long-term Returns: Focus on U.S. Equity Funds)

  • 하연정;오해준
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.167-183
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to show the need to use the past long-term returns for investment decisions in U.S. equity funds and to suggest an investment strategy using long-term returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study solves the problem of high return volatility in long-term returns and proposes new investment portfolios based on the behavior of fund investors according to past returns. For the investment portfolio of this study, 60 months are divided into several periods and the average of the performance ranks for each period is used. Findings - First, funds with high average returns over multiple periods have lower future outflows and higher future returns than funds with high 60-month cumulative returns. Second, funds with low average returns over multiple periods have lower future inflows and lower future returns than funds with low 60-month cumulative returns. The findings mean that when making decisions based on past long-term returns, it is a smarter investment choice to buy funds with high average returns over multiple periods and sell funds with low average returns over multiple periods. Research implications or Originality - This study shows that it is necessary to use long-term returns in fund investment by analyzing the characteristics of the portfolio based on past returns. In addition, the study is meaningful in that it suggests a way to use long-term returns more efficiently based on the behavior of fund investors and shows that such investments lead to higher returns in the future.

무선인식 유통정보기술 투자가 장기 주가수익률에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (Long Term Impact of Distribution Information Technology Investment on Firm Value)

  • 손삼호
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This paper investigates the long term impact of RFID investment on firm value in Korea. We wand to find out why the long term performance of some firm's RFID investment is better than others. To understand the dynamics of the long term returns from RFID investment announcements, we divide our events into groups for each of the independent firm characteristic variable such as investment time period, kind of markets, industries, solvency and growth potential. We composed portfolios based on the RFID investment announcement date for each group and evaluate the monthly abnormal excess returns. Research design, data, and methodology - Based on these calendar-time portfolios, we measure the long term returns from 86 RFID investment announcements of 46 firms from 2003 to 2017. We construct the calendar-time portfolio for 3, 6, 9, 12 months of holding periods. Using the weighted least squares method, we regress the raw monthly returns of the portfolios on the Fama-French model and Carhart(1997) model. As a result, we can get the estimated risk adjusted mean monthly abnormal excess return αP for each of the calendar-time portfolio. Results - We found that early adopters, large firms, non-manufacturing firms have very significant excess returns. We also found modestly significant excess returns for financially stable firms and slow growing firms. Put together, top managers of the firms which plan to invest RFID should understand the strategic role of RFID adoption and the generalized business process of distribution information technology investment in Korea. Moreover, the findings of this paper provide useful trading strategies to the managers of large funds who are considering on investing in RFID adopting firms. Conclusions - Put together, the results of this paper give us a new insight into how the RFID and IT technology in general and other characteristic factors' interactions affect the long term performance of firms. Using the unbiased estimates of long term returns of the calendar-time portfolios, this paper extends the understandings on short term impact of RFID adoption of existing studies. This paper also extends the current understandings of firm characteristics that affect the long term performance of RFID adopting firms.

주식유통시장의 층위이동과 장기기억과정 (Level Shifts and Long-term Memory in Stock Distribution Markets)

  • 정진택
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - The purpose of paper is studying the static and dynamic side for long-term memory storage properties, and increase the explanatory power regarding the long-term memory process by looking at the long-term storage attributes, Korea Composite Stock Price Index. The reason for the use of GPH statistic is to derive the modified statistic Korea's stock market, and to research a process of long-term memory. Research design, data, and methodology - Level shifts were subjected to be an empirical analysis by applying the GPH method. It has been modified by taking into account the daily log return of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index a. The Data, used for the stock market to analyze whether deciding the action by the long-term memory process, yield daily stock price index of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the rate of return a log. The studies were proceeded with long-term memory and long-term semiparametric method in deriving the long-term memory estimators. Chapter 2 examines the leading research, and Chapter 3 describes the long-term memory processes and estimation methods. GPH statistics induced modifications of statistics and discussed Whittle statistic. Chapter 4 used Korea Composite Stock Price Index to estimate the long-term memory process parameters. Chapter 6 presents the conclusions and implications. Results - If the price of the time series is generated by the abnormal process, it may be located in long-term memory by a time series. However, test results by price fixed GPH method is not followed by long-term memory process or fractional differential process. In the case of the time-series level shift, the present test method for a long-term memory processes has a considerable amount of bias, and there exists a structural change in the stock distribution market. This structural change has implications in level shift. Stratum level shift assays are not considered as shifted strata. They exist distinctly in the stock secondary market as bias, and are presented in the test statistic of non-long-term memory process. It also generates an error as a long-term memory that could lead to false results. Conclusions - Changes in long-term memory characteristics associated with level shift present the following two suggestions. One, if any impact outside is flowed for a long period of time, we can know that the long-term memory processes have characteristic of the average return gradually. When the investor makes an investment, the same reasoning applies to him in the light of the characteristics of the long-term memory. It is suggested that when investors make decisions on investment, it is necessary to consider the characters of the long-term storage in reference with causing investors to increase the uncertainty and potential. The other one is the thing which must be considered variously according to time-series. The research for price-earnings ratio and investment risk should be composed of the long-term memory characters, and it would have more predictability.

외국인직접투자 유치확대 방안에 관한 연구 (A Study on Invitation and Extension of Foreign Direct Investment in Korea)

  • 오수균
    • 통상정보연구
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.367-386
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this is to analyze environment of foreign direct investment and Act in Korea and to find invitation and extension of foreign direct investment into Korea. Investment incentives, simplification of investment procedures, image improvement, increased public relations and investment support services are all factors which can be enhanced in the short term to positively influence investors decision-making in where to invest. Since the enactment of the Foreign Investment Promotion Act in November of 1998, there has been a signification improvement in Korea's investment environment in terms of policies and systems. It is expected that the foreign direct investment environment in Korea will continue to improve through the improvement in political stability, labor-management relations and easing of political tensions between the North and South, in the long term, as well as through improvements in investment incentives, investment procedures and public relations activities, in the short term.

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부동산세제의 부동산투자행동 및 성과에 대한 관련성 (The Effects of Real Estate Taxation System on the Real Estate Investment Behavior and Performance)

  • 윤윤석;심원미
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제10권6호
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구에서는 부동산투자와 관련한 대표적 조세인 취득세, 종합부동산세, 양도소득세에 대한 투자자의 조세 부담정도가 부동산의 투자행동(장기투자 목적 정도)에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지에 대하여 분석하고, 이러한 부동산 투자행동은 부동산 투자에 대한 투자성과(실현수익률)에 얼마나 영향을 미치는가에 대하여 분석을 실시하였다. 본 연구는 부동산 투자에 있어서 투자자에게 조세의 부담정도에 따른 투자행동의 선택결과가 최종의 투자성과에 서로 다른 결과를 나타낸다는 점을 고려하여 본 연구모델을 투자의사결정시 기초적인 의사결정 도구로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

The Impact of the RMB Exchange Rate Expectations on Foreign Direct Investment in China

  • Yuantao FANG;Renhong WU;Md. Alamgir HOSSAIN
    • 융합경영연구
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: As a major economy attracting foreign investment, China is currently facing significant international economic pressure due to the appreciation of the RMB. Additionally, China is at a critical period of socio-economic development, where foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an indispensable role in stabilizing economic growth, adjusting industrial structure, and promoting economic transformation. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the relationship between RMB exchange rate expectations and FDI. It examines the magnitude of their relationship through empirical research using cointegration tests, Granger causality tests, and BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression) analysis. Results: The comprehensive study of the empirical results in this paper concludes that there is a long-term cointegrated relationship between China's RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment, indicating that their relationship is stable in the long run. It is also found that RMB exchange rate expectations have a significantly positive impact in the short term, but this impact is not significant in the long term. Conclusions: The paper also considers the possibility of establishing a China-EU Free Trade Area in the future and offers policy recommendations regarding RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment.

Japan's Export Regulations and Korea's Investment Attraction Strategy: Focusing on the Parts and Materials Industry

  • Lee, Min-Jae;Jung, Jin-Sup;Lee, Jeong-Eun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.55-72
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - In this paper, we provide recommendations for Korea's long-term direction and strategic measures to attract inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in response to Japan's export regulations. In doing so, we analyze the current situation and characteristics of trade between Korea and Japan, focusing on the parts and materials industry, which is particularly affected by Japan's trade regulations. Design/methodology - Based on the analysis of five successful inward FDI cases (e.g. Toray, IGK, Delkor, GlobalWafers, DuPont) and statistic trend review in the parts and materials industry, we consider various factors pertaining to successful inward FDI in Korea and propose valuable investment attraction strategies. Findings - For a successful investment attraction strategy, we studied some statistical trends in the internal and external environments of the parts and materials industry and successful investment attraction cases in Korea. We have found that in order to increase the probability of success in attracting investment, we need a mid-to long-term strategy considering multiple factors such as "Production-oriented, Demand-linked, Global Value Chain (VGC) linked, and Policy-linked investment attraction." Originality/value - We suggest several specific measures and important strategic implications for the Korean government and firm's managers to attract inward FDI successfully.

연구개발투자와 경제성장의 상호관계 실증분석 (Investing the relationship between R&D expenditure and economic growth)

  • 최현이;조근태
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.59-82
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    • 2023
  • 본 논문에서는 우리나라 경제성장과 연구수행 주체별 공공 연구개발투자, 기업연구개발투자, 대학 연구개발 투자 간의 장·단기 인과관계를 실증 분석하였다. 이를 위해 1976년부터 2020년 동안의 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 단위근 검정, 공적분 검정, 백터오차수정모형(VECM)을 통한 인과성 검정을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 우리나라 경제성장과 공공 연구개발투자, 기업 연구개발투자, 대학 연구개발투자 간에는 장기적으로 인과관계가 존재하는 장기균형관계가 있다는 것을 도출하였다. 그러나, 공공 연구개발투자가 경제성장에 단기적으로 영향을 미치는 데에 비해 기업 및 대학 연구개발투자는 경제성장에 단기적으로 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 더불어, 경제성장 및 공공 연구개발투자, 기업 연구개발투자와 공공연구개발투자, 대학 연구개발투자와 공공 연구개발투자 간에 단기적으로 양방향의 인과관계가 있는 것으로 도출되었다. 마지막으로 단기적으로 공공 연구개발에 인과관계가 있는 것은 GDP 경제성장이며, 대학의 연구개발에 단기적으로 인과관계가 있는 것은 공공 및 기업의 연구개발투자인 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 연구를 통해서 공공 연구개발투자, 기업 연구개발투자, 대학 연구개발 투자와 경제성장 간에는 높은 상호 유기적인 관계가 존재한다는 것을 실증적으로 도출하였다. 향후 연구개발투자가 경제성장에 미치는 파급효과를 높이기 위해서는 대학과 기업의 연구개발투자가 상호 촉진되고, 기업의 연구개발투자가 공공 연구개발투자에 긍정적 영향을 미쳐 공공 연구개발투자가 향후 경제성장에 기여할 수 있도록 하는 정책개발이 필요할 것이다.

IT 투자 평가를 위한 시스템 다이나믹스를 활용한 밸런스스코어카드 (Balanced Scorecard using System Dynamics for Evaluating IT Investment)

  • 백승원;주정은;구상회
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.19-34
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    • 2008
  • IT는 도입 비용이 상당히 높고, 단기간에 그 성과가 나타나지 않는다. 하지만 대부분의 IT 도입 성과 평가 모델은 단기간의 성과만을 측정하기 때문에 신뢰성 있는 예측을 하기 힘들다. 또한 성과 측정을 위해 ROI와 같은 재무적인 요소만을 고려하는 경우가 대부분이다. 보다 정확한 성과 측정을 위해서는 재무적 요소뿐 아니라 시스템 활용성, 고객만족, 기업 이미지 등 비재무적인 요소도 고려하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 장기적인 관점에서 재무적인 요소와 비재무적인 요소 모두를 성과 측정에 반영할 수 있는 방법을 제안한다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 시스템 다이나믹스와 균형성과표(Balanced scorecard)의 연구 성과를 활용하였다. 시스템 다이나믹스는 장기적인 관점에서 대상 시스템의 행태를 분석하는데 유용하며, BSC는 재무적 비재무적 측면에 관한 평가를 가능하게 해 준다. 또한 본 연구의 유용성을 입증하기 위하여, 본 연구 결과를 유통 산업에 있어서 RFID 도입 성과를 측정하는데 적용해 보았다. 적용해 본 결과 RFID는 도입 비용이 많이 들기에 단기적인 관점에서는 부정적인 결과를 가져오나, 장기적인 관점에서는 기업에 이익을 주는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

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이전 가격 트렌드가 낙관적 예측에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of Prior Price Trends on Optimistic Forecasting)

  • 김영두
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제9권10호
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study examines when the optimism impact on financial asset price forecasting and the boundary condition of optimism in the financial asset price forecasting. People generally tend to optimistically forecast their future. Optimism is a nature of human beings and optimistic forecasting observed in daily life. But is it always observed in financial asset price forecasting? In this study, two factors were focused on considering whether the optimism that people have applied to predicting future performance of financial investment products (e.g., mutual fund). First, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied depending on the direction of the prior price trend. Second, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied according to the forecast period by dividing the future forecasted by people into three time horizon based on forecast period. Research design, data, and methodology - 2 (prior price trend: rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) × 3 (forecast time horizon: short term vs medium term vs long term) experimental design was used. Prior price trend was used between subject and forecast time horizon was used within subject design. 169 undergraduate students participated in the experiment. χ2 analysis was used. In this study, prior price trend divided into two types: rising-up trend versus falling-down trend. Forecast time horizon divided into three types: short term (after one month), medium term (after one year), and long term (after five years). Results - Optimistic price forecasting and boundary condition was found. Participants who were exposed to falling-down trend did not make optimistic predictions in the short term, but over time they tended to be more optimistic about the future in the medium term and long term. However, participants who were exposed to rising-up trend were over-optimistic in the short term, but over time, less optimistic in the medium and long term. Optimistic price forecasting was found when participants forecasted in the long term. Exposure to prior price trends (rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) was a boundary condition of optimistic price forecasting. Conclusions - The results indicated that individuals were more likely to be impacted by prior price tends in the short term time horizon, while being optimistic in the long term time horizon.