• 지능정보연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.69-81
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• 2005

고객관계관리는 치열한 경쟁환경에서 각 기업이 생존하기 위해 반드시 필요한 하나의 기업전략이 되었다. 고객관계관리의 방법은 다양하지만 가장 기본적인 방법은 특정 고객이 어떤 상품 혹은 상품군을 구매할 것인지를 정확히 예측하는 것이다. 이미 국내외 실무현장에서 전통적인 데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 고객구매예측모형이 널리 적용되고 있다. 하지만 전통적인 기법의 경우, 정확도가 상대적으로 떨어지거나 혹은 모형의 구축 및 유지관리가 어렵다는 문제가 종종 제기되어 왔다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기존 모형의 문제점을 개선하기 위한 대안으로, 매우 높은 예측력을 나타내면서 동시에 일반화 능력이 우수한 것으로 알려진 Support Vector Machine(SVM)을 이용하여 고객구매예측모형을 구축하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 고객구매예측의 도구로써 SVM의 적합성을 판단하기 위하여 전통적인 기법인 로지스틱 회귀분석, 인공신경망과 그 성과를 비교하였다. 그 결과, SVM이 다른 기법들에 비해 상대적으로 우수한 성과를 나타냄을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.9-14
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• 2021

This paper predicted a model that indicates whether to buy a car based on primary health insurance customer data. Currently, automobiles are being used to land transportation and living, and the scope of use and equipment is expanding. This rapid increase in automobiles has caused automobile insurance to emerge as an essential business target for insurance companies. Therefore, if the car insurance sales are predicted and sold using the information of existing health insurance customers, it can generate continuous profits in the insurance company's operating performance. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze existing customer characteristics and implement a predictive model to activate advertisements for customers interested in such auto insurance. The goal of this study is to maximize the profits of insurance companies by devising communication strategies that can optimize business models and profits for customers. This study was conducted through the Microsoft Azure program, and an automobile insurance purchase prediction model was implemented using Health Insurance Cross-sell Prediction data. The program algorithm uses Two-Class Logistic Regression and Two-Class Boosted Decision Tree at the same time to compare two models and predict and compare the results. According to the results of this study, when the Threshold is 0.3, the AUC is 0.837, and the accuracy is 0.833, which has high accuracy. Therefore, the result was that customers with health insurance could induce a positive reaction to auto insurance purchases.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.111-128
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• 2017

Existing studies for recommender have focused on recommending an appropriate item based on the customer preference. However, it has not yet been studied actively to recommend purchase timing for the repurchase product despite of its importance. This study aims to propose MLP and RNN models based on the only simple purchase history data to predict the timing of customer repurchase and compare performances in the perspective of prediction accuracy and quality. As an experiment result, RNN model showed outstanding performance compared to MLP model. The proposed model can be used to develop CRM system which can offer SMS or app based promotion to the customer at the right time. This model also can be used to increase sales for repurchase product business by balancing the level of order as well as inducing repurchase of customer.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.213-225
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 기업의 마케팅 프로모션에 따른 반응고객의 구매액 예측을 위한 방법을 제시하고 SVR의 효과적인 학습방법을 제시하였다. 프로모션에 의한 고객의 구매액을 기반으로 고객을 5등급으로 등급화하고 각 등급 내에서 SVR을 적용하여 고객의 구매액을 예측하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 예측된 고객의 등급 내에서 고객 구매액을 예측하는 분리데이터 학습법이 프로모션에 반응한 모든 고객을 대상으로 구매액을 예측하는 전체데이터 학습법보다 높은 예측성과를 보여주었다. 일반적으로 세분화된 고객집단을 하나의 집단으로 보고 동일한 마케팅 전략을 제시하나 본 연구를 통해 구매액에 따라 등급화 된 고객의 등급 내에서 다시 고객의 거래 구매액을 예측하여 동일한 집단 내에서도 차별화된 마케팅 전략을 제시할 수 있는 기반을 제시하였다. 즉 동일한 등급에서도 고객 구매액에 따라 고객의 우선순위를 정할 수 있으며, 이는 마케팅 담당자가 프로모션을 제시할 고객을 선정할 때 유용한 정보로 활용될 수 있다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.105-126
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• 2021

Purpose The purpose of this study is to implement a optimal machine learning model about the cancellation prediction performance in car sales business. It is to apply the data set of accumulated contract, cancellation, and sales information in sales support system(SFA) which is commonly used for sales, customers and inventory management by imported car dealers, to several machine learning models and predict performance of cancellation. Design/methodology/approach This study extracts 29,073 contracts, cancellations, and sales data from 2015 to 2020 accumulated in the sales support system(SFA) for imported car dealers and uses the analysis program Python Jupiter notebook in order to perform data pre-processing, verification, and modeling that is applying and learning to Machine learning model after then the final result was predicted using new data. Findings This study confirmed that cancellation prediction is possible by applying car purchase contract information to machine learning models. It proved the possibility of developing and utilizing a generalized predictive model by using data of imported car sales system with machine learning technology. It can reduce and prevent the sales failure as caring the potential lost customer intensively and it lead to increase sales revenue by predicting the cancellation possibility of individual customers.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.769-782
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• 2020

Interest in fruit and vegetables has increased due to changes in consumer consumption patterns, socioeconomic status, and family structure. This study determined the factors influencing the demand for fruit and vegetables (strawberries, paprika, tomatoes and cherry tomatoes) using a panel of Rural Development Administration household-level purchases from 2010 to 2018 and compared the ability to the prediction performance. An artificial neural network model was constructed, linking household characteristics with final food expenditure. Comparing the analysis results of the artificial neural network with the results of the panel model showed that the artificial neural network accurately predicted the pattern of the consumer panel data rather than the fixed effect model. In addition, the prediction for strawberries was found to be heavily affected by the number of families, retail places and income, while the prediction for paprika was largely affected by income, age and retail conditions. In the case of the prediction for tomatoes, they were greatly affected by age, income and place of purchase, and the prediction for cherry tomatoes was found to be affected by age, number of families and retail conditions. Therefore, a more accurate analysis of the consumer consumption pattern was possible through the artificial neural network model, which could be used as basic data for decision making.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.737-767
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• 2023

With the availability of big customer data and advances in machine learning techniques, the prediction of customer behavior at the session-level has attracted considerable attention from marketing practitioners and scholars. This study aims to predict customer purchase conversion at the session-level by employing customer profile, transaction, and clickstream data. For this purpose, we develop a multimodal deep learning fusion model with dynamic and static features (i.e., DS-fusion). Specifically, we base page views within focal visist and recency, frequency, monetary value, and clumpiness (RFMC) for dynamic and static features, respectively, to comprehensively capture customer characteristics for buying behaviors. Our model with deep learning architectures combines these features for conversion prediction. We validate the proposed model using real-world e-commerce data. The experimental results reveal that our model outperforms unimodal classifiers with each feature and the classical machine learning models with dynamic and static features, including random forest and logistic regression. In this regard, this study sheds light on the promise of the machine learning approach with the complementary method for different modalities in predicting customer behaviors.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.73-90
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• 2018

Despite of increasing studies for product recommendation, the recommendation of product repurchase timing has not yet been studied actively. This study aims to propose deep neural network models usingsimple purchase history data to predict the repurchase timing of each customer and compare performances of the models from the perspective of prediction quality, including expected ROI of promotion, variability of precision and recall, and diversity of target selection for promotion. As an experiment result, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model showed higher promotion ROI and the smaller variability compared to MLP and other models. The proposed model can be used to develop a CRM system that can offer SMS or app-based promotionsto the customer at the right time. This model can also be used to increase sales for product repurchase businesses by balancing the level of ordersas well as inducing repurchases by customers.

• International Journal of Contents
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.113-119
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• 2019

It has been reported that large amounts of information on agri-foods were delivered to consumers through television and social networks, and the information may influence consumers' behavior. The purpose of this paper was first to analyze relations of social network service and broadcasting program on paprika consumption in the aspect of amounts to purchase and identify potential factors that can promote paprika consumption; second, to develop prediction models of paprika consumption by using structured and unstructured big data. By using data 2010-2017, cross-correlation and time-series prediction algorithms (autoregressive exogenous model and vector error correction model), statistically significant correlations between paprika consumption and television programs/shows and blogs mentioning paprika and diet were identified with lagged times. When paprika and diet related data were added for prediction, these data improved the model predictability. This is the first report to predict paprika consumption by using structured and unstructured data.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.101-116
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• 2015

많은 기관들이 데이터에 기반을 둔 의사결정을 수행해 왔으며, 특히 수치자료를 비롯한 정형 데이터가 이러한 목적으로 널리 활용되어 왔다. 하지만 최근에는 스마트기기와 소셜미디어의 발달로 인해 다양한 형태를 가진 방대한 양의 정보가 생성, 공유, 저장되면서, 전통적인 정형 데이터 기반 의사결정으로부터 비정형 빅데이터 기반 의사결정으로 관심의 전환이 이루어지고 있다. 데이터 기반 의사결정의 대표적 분야인 추천시스템 분야에서도 성능 향상을 위해 비정형 데이터를 활용해야 한다는 필요성이 최근 꾸준히 제기되고 있다. 특히 사용자의 성향이나 선호도는 고객의 니즈와 직결되기 때문에, 비정형 데이터 분석을 통해 사용자의 성향을 파악하고 이를 통해 상품 추천 및 구매 예측의 정확도를 향상시키기 위한 노력이 매우 시급하게 이루어질 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 사용자의 성향을 측정하여 재구매 예측 정확도, 특히 카테고리별 재구매 예측 정확도를 높임으로써, 궁극적으로 추천시스템의 성능을 향상시킬 수 있는 방안을 제시한다. 구체적으로는 사용자의 일상적인 인터넷 사용 기록을 분석하여 고객이 조회하는 뉴스 기사의 이슈를 식별하고 다양한 이슈에 대한 고객의 관심을 계량화한 후, 이를 활용하여 고객의 카테고리별 재구매 여부를 예측하는 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 실제 웹 트랜잭션으로부터 도출된 인터넷 뉴스 조회 기록 및 쇼핑몰 구매 기록을 대상으로 실험을 수행한 결과, 고객의 과거 구매이력만을 활용한 카테고리 재구매 예측 모형에 비해 본 연구에서 제안한 모형, 즉 고객의 과거 구매이력과 관심 이슈를 모두 활용한 예측 모형의 정확도가 다소 우수한 것으로 나타났다.