• Title/Summary/Keyword: Promising Index

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A Study on Forecast of the Promising Fusion Technology by US Patent Analysis (특허분석을 통한 유망융합기술의 예측)

  • Gang, Hui-Jong;Eom, Mi-Jeong;Kim, Dong-Myeong
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.93-116
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    • 2006
  • This study provides a quantitative forecasting method to identify promising fusion technology and it also applies the method based on patent analysis to IT. This study defines fusion technology, promising technology, fusion index, promising index and promising fusion technology. From the analysis, this study found that the next generation computer network is the most promising in IT area. This result is consistent with the forecasts made by the interviews and discussion of experts.

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Exploring Promising Technology in ICT Sector Using Patent Network and Promising Index Based on Patent Information

  • Park, Inchae;Park, Gwangman;Yoon, Byungun;Koh, Soonju
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.405-415
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    • 2016
  • This research proposes the use of a patent analysis methodology that can suggest promising technology in the ICT sector at the micro-level. This approach identifies core patents from the technology field, groups them as research frontiers (RFs), and develops a visualized network based on the citing relationships to monitor the relationship among RFs. In addition, it calculates a "promising index" based on the growth potential, impact, and marketability of patents to ultimately derive promising RFs. To illustrate the proposed approach, this research presents analysis results for a chosen area, which is the user interface and user experience (UI/UX) technology field. By proposing promising technological fields at the micro-level, the proposed methodology will serve as a useful decision-making support tool in selecting R&D projects, technology planning, and determining technology policy direction.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

Analysis of Promising Country for Seawater Desalination Plant Using Delphi Method (Delphi 기법을 이용한 해수담수화 플랜트 유망 국가 분석)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2351-2357
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    • 2013
  • An index was developed for analyzing the promising countries for seawater desalination plant and related data sets were collected and analyzed. Each indicators was standardized by scale readjustment method and Delphi method was used to calculate the weights for indicators from questionnaire survey by experts in seawater desalination plant field. Twenty three indicators were selected and they were classified into three groups, economic, social, and environmental indicator groups. Eleven countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, China, Singapore, India, Algeria, Turkey, United States) were selected considering present data availability and index for each country was calculated. The results show United States and China took the first (0.537) and second (0.490) place for the most promising country for seawater desalination plant. However it will not be easy to play a significant role in the markets because of present seawater desalination technology level and national policy, etc. Saudi Arabia took the third (0.329) place and other countries which has more than 0.2 index value can be considered as a promising countries for seawater desalination plant. We can establish a strategy to export our seawater desalination technology and plant using the result of this study. The developed index can be applied to other countries, which were not included in this study, when their data is available.

Discovering locally customized and future promising industries using patent analysis : Centered on the Case of Busan city (특허 분석을 통한 지역맞춤형 미래유망산업 발굴 및 도출에 관한 연구 : 부산 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hyun-Woo;Shim, We;Kwon, Oh-Jin;Noh, Kyung-Ran
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this paper is to suggest methodology for local governments when discovering locally customized future promising industries with regard to policies of central government, regional competencies, and industrial promising. Firstly, key industries by region specified in '5-years regional industrial development master plan(2014)' were utilized. Secondly, science and technology competency by region was calculated with analyzing patent data in each key industries. Thirdly, industrial promising was verified by calculating Knowledge Stock and Activity Index based on measuring industry-IPC linkage. Based on the methodology proposed above, case study(case of Busan city) was done. Finally, 7 core industries and 94 candidates of future promising industries were extracted on the basis of 5 digit of KSIC subdivision. The methodology is expected to contribute local governments to establish evidence-based, efficient, and future-oriented local R&D roadmapping.

A Study On The Realization Of Multi-Threshold Function By Partition Of Switching Functions (스윗칭함수 분할에 의한 다역치함수 실현에 관한 연구)

  • Chae Tak Lim
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 1974
  • This paper investigates the theoretical properties of a logic element called the multithreshold threshold element, which is a generalization of the single-threshold threshold element. The primary partition os a systematic method of obtaining the multi-threshold realization of a switching function by the index numbers. The concept of comparable vertices of the same index numbers introduced in this paper is very promising for testing the multi-threshold partition by the initial condition to be defined by the minterms of the same index numbers.

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Developing a Dynamic Materialized View Index for Efficiently Discovering Usable Views for Progressive Queries

  • Zhu, Chao;Zhu, Qiang;Zuzarte, Calisto;Ma, Wenbin
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.511-537
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    • 2013
  • Numerous data intensive applications demand the efficient processing of a new type of query, which is called a progressive query (PQ). A PQ consists of a set of unpredictable but inter-related step-queries (SQ) that are specified by its user in a sequence of steps. A conventional DBMS was not designed to efficiently process such PQs. In our earlier work, we introduced a materialized view based approach for efficiently processing PQs, where the focus was on selecting promising views for materialization. The problem of how to efficiently find usable views from the materialized set in order to answer the SQs for a PQ remains open. In this paper, we present a new index technique, called the Dynamic Materialized View Index (DMVI), to rapidly discover usable views for answering a given SQ. The structure of the proposed index is a special ordered tree where the SQ domain tables are used as search keys and some bitmaps are kept at the leaf nodes for refined filtering. A two-level priority rule is adopted to order domain tables in the tree, which facilitates the efficient maintenance of the tree by taking into account the dynamic characteristics of various types of materialized views for PQs. The bitmap encoding methods and the strategies/algorithms to construct, search, and maintain the DMVI are suggested. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that our index technique is quite promising in improving the performance of the materialized view based query processing approach for PQs.

Evaluation and Identification of Promising Bivoltine Breeds in the Silkworm Bombyx mori L.

  • Begum, Azeezur Rehman Naseema;Basavaraja, Hadikere Kallappa;Joge, Punjab Govindrai;Palit, Aditya Kumar
    • International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2008
  • Under the all India programme of evaluation of mulberry and silkworm genotypes, twelve bivoltine silkworm breeds obtained from Central Silkworm Germplasm Resource Centre, Hosur (CSGRC) were evaluated at the bivoltine silkworm breeding laboratory, Central Sericultural Research & Training Institute, Mysore (CSR&TI). These breeds were tested during September-October 2003, August-September 2004 and February-March 2005. The average temperature and humidity during September-October 2003 was $26.5^{\circ}C$ and 72.6% RH, while during August-September 2004, it was $26.5^{\circ}C$ and 75.2% RH and during February-March 2005 it was $24^{\circ}C$ and 48% RH respectively. The performance of the breeds in respect of 21 traits was studied and statistically analyzed using analysis of variance (Singh and Choudhary, 1985). Silkworm breeds were short-listed using multiple trait evaluation index method as suggested by Mano et at., (1993). Evaluation Index values were calculated for all the 11 traits of economic importance and six breeds were short-listed based on average index value 50 and above 50. Two breed viz., BV 183 (SMGS-1) have recorded average E.I. >50 in 10 traits (except in neatness) and ranked first and the breed BV 262 (SMGS9) with E.I. value >50 in nine traits except in cocoon weight and neatness ranked second, in the order of merit. These two breeds may be selected as resource material for evolving region specific silkworm breeds.

Multiple Trait Evaluation of Bivoltine Hybrids of Silkworm(Bombyx mori L.)

  • Babu, M.Ramesh;Chandrashekharaiah;Lakshmi, H.;Prasad, J.
    • International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2002
  • Eighteen new bivoltine silkworm (Bombyx mori L.) hybrids developed at Andhra Pradesh State Sericul-ture Research and Development Institute, Hindupur are evaluated for 10 economic traits by following two multiple trait index methods, i.e., Subordinate Function and Evaluation Index for their economic merit. The hybrid genotype, APS6${\times}$APS11 with highest Subordinate function value of 8.2432 and highest average Evaluation Index of 61.67 ranked first. This hybrid is adjudicated as most promising hybrid and recommended for commercial use. Further, applicability of Subordinate Function Index Method is tested and recommended for application of multiple trait evaluation similar to Evaluation Index Method as the results obtained are comparable. Further, both these methods can be applied for confirmation of results.