KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Analysis of Promising Country for Seawater Desalination Plant Using Delphi Method

Delphi 기법을 이용한 해수담수화 플랜트 유망 국가 분석

  • 양정석 (국민대학교 건설시스템공학부) ;
  • 김일환 (국민대학교 건설시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2013.05.14
  • Accepted : 2013.08.09
  • Published : 2013.11.30
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Abstract

An index was developed for analyzing the promising countries for seawater desalination plant and related data sets were collected and analyzed. Each indicators was standardized by scale readjustment method and Delphi method was used to calculate the weights for indicators from questionnaire survey by experts in seawater desalination plant field. Twenty three indicators were selected and they were classified into three groups, economic, social, and environmental indicator groups. Eleven countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, China, Singapore, India, Algeria, Turkey, United States) were selected considering present data availability and index for each country was calculated. The results show United States and China took the first (0.537) and second (0.490) place for the most promising country for seawater desalination plant. However it will not be easy to play a significant role in the markets because of present seawater desalination technology level and national policy, etc. Saudi Arabia took the third (0.329) place and other countries which has more than 0.2 index value can be considered as a promising countries for seawater desalination plant. We can establish a strategy to export our seawater desalination technology and plant using the result of this study. The developed index can be applied to other countries, which were not included in this study, when their data is available.

해수담수화 플랜트 시장 진출 유망 국가 분석을 위한 지수를 개발하였고 이를 위해서 관련된 자료를 수집하고 분석하였다. 자료의 특성상 국가별로 편차가 커 스케일 재조정 방법을 통해 각 지표별로 표준화를 실시하였고, 해수담수화 플랜트에 대한 전문가들을 대상으로 Delphi 기법을 통한 설문 조사를 통해 가중치를 결정하였다. 총 23개의 지표를 3가지 요소로 나누어 각각의 항목별로 가중치를 결정하였으며, 사우디아라비아, UAE, 쿠웨이트, 이란, 카타르, 중국, 싱가포르, 인도, 알제리, 터키, 미국 등 11개 국가, 즉 해수담수화 플랜트 해외 시장 유망 국가들에 대해서 지수를 산정하였다. 산정된 지수를 비교하였을 때 미국이 0.537, 중국이 0.490, 사우디아라비아가 0.329로 나타났다. 현지 사정을 고려하였을 때는 미국과 중국은 해외 시장 진출을 하는데 많은 어려움이 있을 수 있지만 그 외에 국가에 대해서는 본 연구의 결과를 바탕으로 전략적으로 시장 진출을 도모하는데 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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