• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.49-50
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• 2015

Since the mid-2000s, Korean large-sized construction companies have pursued in earnest to expand their business to global construction market in surroundings that domestic market have a continuous and long-term stagnation. However, during last a few years, they have experienced the serious financial loss from international projects. In the meantime, for the sound improvement of Korean construction industry, many stakeholders long for efficient early warning signals to generally monitor and track the potential risks of international projects. In this study, we introduce an International Project Risk Index (IPRI), which is derived from massive data provided by large-sized companies, and expect to provide the practitioners and decision makers as an aid to proactively cope with the change of the potential risks. The outcomes from the IPRI can be utilized to prepare a timely management strategy and to establish an appropriate government support regulation.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.614-615
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• 2015

In these days, global construction market is speedily increasing and domestic construction companies have a chance of new contracts. In the meantime, international projects have been increasingly forced to cope with potential risks, which seriously impacted achieving the targeted time and cost. In this study, we introduce a computerized risk management system for international EPCS projects, which is constructed on the needs of practitioners and decision makers as an aid to proactively control the potential risks and to monitor continuously their status and variation. The system is called the Project Risk Management System (PRiMS) is useful for furnishing project managers with warning signals as a project is progressing and helpful for producing the total risk score and tracking risk variation.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.330-334
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• 2011

Build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects are privatized infrastructure undertakings that face long-term investment risks and uncertainties. To ensure these projects can be completed on time and operated according to performance specifications, governments usually require BOT concessionaires to furnish performance bonds as a security. However, in order to attract investment, governments often provide abandonment rights for concessionaires to deal with investment risks and uncertainties. In the context of real options, these abandonment rights will increase project value, but the furnish of performance bonds will reduce this value. Currently in the BOT context, there is no real option model that can handle explicitly the impact of performance bonds on project value. In this paper, a real option valuation model is derived to deal with this important issue. The Taiwan high-speed rail project is used as a case study to show the applicability of the proposed model.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.31-61
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.12-24
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• 2012

The Risks in undertaking a construction project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. This study has identified various kinds of risks, assessed the risk factors quantitatively and suggested risk management method for response pertinent in Design Build(Turn Key)type of projects in Korean context. A questionnaire was designed comprising of 145 possible risks in all types of construction projects. The population from owner, consultant and contractor groups was asked to indicate the risks applicable in DB projects. 25 numbers of critical risks in DB projects were identified and further analyzed for reveling inherent relationship between them through factor analysis. Factor analysis revealed 8 risk factors in DB projects. Construction site related, contract related and design related risk factor consisted about 72% of total risk weight. It has been found out about 6%, while considering the mutual dependency, it is about 10% of total cost of DB project. Therefore, It is suggested that 6% to 10% of construction amount as contingency has to be made provision for risk responses in the DB projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2014.11a
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• pp.90-91
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• 2014

Previous research related to the construction schedule management has focused on construction schedule categorization, construction schedule management, and system development to manage construction schedule risks. Therefore this research present quantitively deducing method for managing construction schedule risk. Based on the investigation, this study suggested the probable risk factors and a practical management method, through interviews and discussions with experts. The quantified risks should be adapted for an individually specific projects and managed until the project is complete. To maintain the continuity of schedule risks, the schedule risk management procedures should be controlled during the performance of the construction project.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.864-868
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• 2009

Fire safety management on any construction site should start with recognizing fire risks in the workplace, understanding the extent of the risks, and proper assessment of the controls necessary to reduce the risks. However, the most important step to prevent fire-related accidents on jobsites is the constant review and monitoring of processes and controls by all individuals involved. This study was conducted to analyze the effectiveness of using computer simulation as an addition to maps or floor plans in safety training and management. Simulex was used on a real project to model various egress routes and to identify potential problem areas of the evacuation strategy. This study highlights the efficacy of simulated emergency evacuation as a training tool that visually shows constantly altering means of egress.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.929-934
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• 2005

The complex and dynamic job nature and the ever-changing working environment of construction projects inevitably present uncertainties to construction operations. Identification, evaluation and control of uncertainties constitute main elements of risk management and critical tasks of project management in construction. This paper is focused on application of a simplified discrete-event simulation approach in management of schedule-overrun risks, each being the combination of the occurrence probability of an uncertain interruptive factor and its potential consequence in terms of time delay. A case study observed from a concreting operation in Hong Kong is converted into a simulation model and analyzed with an in-house-developed simulation package for demonstrating how the proposed approach can be implemented to manage multiple schedule-overrun risks on construction projects.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.64-71
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• 2018

Project Management Institute of America separates the types of risk with external risks and internal risks. The external risk is an uncontrollable risk in projects such as changes of policy and related systems, climate, natural disasters, exchange rates and so on. The internal risk is an existing risk in the project itself that is controllable items in the project. Technical risks in project management are cost, quality, time, safety and environment. Therefore, both the external and internal risks should be managed to perform the construction project successfully. In particular, we can secure the quality and safety of facilities through the technical risk management. The importance of potential risk management has been emerging as a major interest and the lack of risk management delays projects and increases construction costs with negative effects of the building safety since the complex building, which is composed of a great number of facilities, consists of many project units and there are conflicts between various participants and stake-holders. This study presents the ways of establishing risk management processes to ensure the safety of the complex building. To that end, establishing procedure of risk management processes is presented and types of risk and factors in construction projects and counter strategies are presented as available risk information on the stages.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.1231-1236
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• 2005

Global construction projects manifest more risks than do other industries. Often, firms doing business in construction markets find these risks intimidating. To secure corresponding profits, many global contractors attempt to forecast the effects of risks and establish risk management strategies. However, one key problem with present-day risk management methods is that they are basically analytical or mathematical-oriented approaches which are not easy to adopt in real business. Based on preliminary investigations and evaluations of current tools, this research elicits more practical algorithms for risk checklist by constructing risk scenarios over the whole period of project execution. For the application of the algorithms, a "SE/RF" (Source-Event/Regular-Floating) checklist is suggested, which sorts out risk sources and their subsequent events, as well as dividing various risk factors into either regular or floating categories. In addition, the "PIS" (Probability-Impact-Significance) method is introduced, in place of traditional "PI" (Probability-Impact) methods, by adding the additional criterion of "risk significance" to determine the degree of risk exposure in a more realistic way. As a result, we draw the significant finding that the "PIS" method presents a closer evaluation regarding degree of risk exposure as compared to the level of expert judgments than those from traditional methods. Finally, we provide an integrated procedure for international project risk management with all of the research achievements being incorporated.