• Title/Summary/Keyword: Project risks

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A CASE STUDY ON INVESTMENT EVALUATION OF A PRIVATE SECTOR PROJECT WITH GEOTECHNICAL RISKS

  • Yoshiki Onoi;Hiroyasu Ohtsu
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.824-829
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    • 2005
  • This paper focuses on construction cost volatility for the purpose of private sector investment by use of a financial model with key indices of IRR and DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio). A case project, 1,000 MW pumped storage hydropower plant, has shown that its financial impacts by cost volatility of underground works are less measured than interest rates impacts by interest rate of loans. Probabilistic analysis of costs under geotechnical conditions has been made by Indicator Kriging method. And, in the modeling of interest rates, geometric Brownian motion has been applied. Both of these impacts are measured on the same financial model.

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A Study on Risks in China's Foreign Invested Water BOT Projects (중국 외국인투자 수처리 BOT 사업 리스크 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Choi, Jae-Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3D
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    • pp.295-302
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    • 2010
  • Since the late 1990s, the BOT mode in China has been extensively used in the water sector in order to attract private investment, improve technical and operational efficiency, and expand the coverage of water services. The BOT mode has been hailed as this provides a win-win structure between the government and private players through formalized procedures and an optimal risk allocation. However, recent market analyses show that some foreign investors are reluctant to participate in the market or even retreat due to uncertainties and risks in the market. This study aims to explore various risks in the Chinese water BOT market based on the thorough literature review, fieldwork, and the case studies on the two wholly foreign-owned BOT water projects: the Chengdu No. 6 and the Shanghai Dachang Water Supply BOT projects. The research results indicate that the Chinese BOT market embraces high risks in political, institutional and legal, and financial systems. The key to a successful takeoff of the BOT mode in the Chinese water market depends on the extent to which the government will be able to remove risky factors in political, institutional and legal, and financing systems. This research outcome will provide a useful reference to the Korean construction companies which consider expanding business to overseas water markets in the form of public private partnership.

Establishment of Risk Database and Development of Risk Classification System for NATM Tunnel (NATM 터널 공정리스크 데이터베이스 구축 및 리스크 분류체계 개발)

  • Kim, Hyunbee;Karunarathne, Batagalle Vinuri;Kim, ByungSoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.32-41
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    • 2024
  • In the construction industry, not only safety accidents, but also various complex risks such as construction delays, cost increases, and environmental pollution occur, and management technologies are needed to solve them. Among them, process risk management, which directly affects the project, lacks related information compared to its importance. This study tried to develop a MATM tunnel process risk classification system to solve the difficulty of risk information retrieval due to the use of different classification systems for each project. Risk collection used existing literature review and experience mining techniques, and DB construction utilized the concept of natural language processing. For the structure of the classification system, the existing WBS structure was adopted in consideration of compatibility of data, and an RBS linked to the work species of the WBS was established. As a result of the research, a risk classification system was completed that easily identifies risks by work type and intuitively reveals risk characteristics and risk factors linked to risks. As a result of verifying the usability of the established classification system, it was found that the classification system was effective as risks and risk factors for each work type were easily identified by user input of keywords. Through this study, it is expected to contribute to preventing an increase in cost and construction period by identifying risks according to work types in advance when planning and designing NATM tunnels and establishing countermeasures suitable for those factors.

Improved Scheme to Manage Engineering Man-hour in a Plant Project (플랜트 프로젝트에서의 설계시간 관리 기법 개선 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Ji-Roh;Moon, Seung-Jae;Lee, Jae-Heon
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2009
  • The global plant construction market has grown dramatically since 2000. As the market grows, domestic EPC contractors are expanding to meet its needs and have made great strides in terms of economic indicators from a decade ago. Larger projects involve a number of risk factors, such as volatile oil prices, however, and thus require quantitative and elaborate project management techniques for the ultimate success of a project's profitability. In addition, many Korean companies face difficulties in predicting potential risks and problems due to a lack of experience in dealing with the global market trend toward projects based on the Cost-re(Cost Reimbursable) contract as opposed to those based on the LSTK(Lumpsum Turnkey) contract. This study will examine methods and types of man-hour management according to plant project contract types. Further, it will explore the man-hour management system for successful completion of projects by satisfying the client's needs and enhancing the convenience in engineers' using the system. Additionally, this study will analyze the current system and identify its problems to address potential problems.

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민자사업의 사업관리 사례분석

  • Lee Kwan-Young;Kim Se-Jong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2004
  • In most PFI(Private Finance Initiative) projects in Korea, the project management are in charge of the Special Purpose Company(SPC) established for carrying out the project. This paper is a case study about an owner CM executed by the organizations and staffs of SPC itself. : Seoulbeltway (Ilsan $\~$ Toegaewon) Private Investment Project. In time management area, the SfC was the leader of project management throughout the life circle - plan, design, permit, construction, operation and maintenance - beyond the schedule manager's role. In cost management area, the methods of reducing the total costs by VE, new technologies, etc. has been needed assuming the construction risks were subject to SPC.

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The Impact of If Project Types and Ownerships on IT Value Evaluation (IT 프로젝트 유형과 오너쉽이 IT 가치평가에 미치는 영향)

  • 이국희;구본재
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2002
  • As the budget size and complexity of 1T investment are growing, IT value measurement becomes more critical to the success of IT management In public organizations and private firms. It has been known that there are many factors such as IT costs, risks, qualify, and usage that should be taken Into consideration during the process of measuring IT value and making IT Investment decisions. However, little research has been done so far In order to analysis factors affecting the IT value and effectiveness. The purpose of this study Is to Investigate the impact of IT Project types and ownerships on IT value evaluation. The three research questions are as follows : (1) Does IT project type such as transactional, Informational, and infrastructure have any impact on 1T value measurement\ulcorner (2) Does the IT development ownership has any Impact on IT value\ulcorner (3) Does the IT operation ownership has any impact\ulcorner The empirical research was done at S-Electronics, world-wide known and the biggest manufacturing company in Korea, based on the method of structured interview. About 200 individual Information systems have been evaluated to calculate ROI measures, the dependent variable In this study. The results of statistical analysis show that two of three Independent variables, IT project types and IT development ownership, have statistically significant effects on IT value in terms of ROI measures.

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A Basic Study on the Development of Profit Risk Management Model for Apartment Projects (아파트 개발 프로젝트의 수익 리스크 관리모델에 관한 기초연구)

  • Son, Seunghyun;Lee, Sungho;Han, Bumjin;Na, Young-Ju;Kim, Ji-Myung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.11a
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    • pp.215-216
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    • 2022
  • Profit, the performance of an apartment development project, is directly affected by the sales ratio, unit sale price, financial costs, land costs and construction costs. However, these factors fluctuate in response to changes in the environment, including various stake holders, and the profits fluctuate as a result. In order to ensure that profits are managed within target levels, these factors must be able to be predicted, controlled and monitored and managed up to the start, sale, and end stages of the project. The purpose of this study is to develop a profit risk management model for apartment development projects. The results of this study will contribute to the establishment of academic basis for the dynamic management of project profits that fluctuate with time and environment. And in practice, it will help project developers manage their business revenue to the proper level. In addition, the risks that occur from time to time can be identified quantitatively and visually, and it is expected that it will be easier to derive consensus points for smooth business progress by reducing conflicts of interest among stakeholders.

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A Decision Support System for Small & Medium Construction Companies (SMCCs) at the early stages of international projects

  • Park, Chan Young;Jang, Woosik;Hwang, Geunouk;Lee, Kang-Wook;Han, Seung Heon
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.213-216
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    • 2015
  • Despite the significant increase of Korean contractors in the international construction market, many SMCCs (Small & Medium Construction Companies) have suffered in the global financial crisis, and some of them have been kicked out of the international market after experiencing huge losses on projects. SMCCs face obstacles in the international market, such as an insufficient ability to gather information and inappropriate management of associated risks, which lead to difficulties in establishing effective business strategies. In other words, making immature decisions without an effective business strategy may cause not only the failure of one project but also the bankruptcy of the SMCC. To overcome this, the research presented herein aims to propose a decision support system for SMCCs, which would screen projects and make a go/no-go decision at the early stages of international projects. The proposed system comprises a double axis: (1) a profit prediction model, which evaluates 10 project properties using an objective methodology based on a historical project performance database and roughly suggests expected profit rate, and (2) a feasibility assessment model, which evaluates 17 project environment factors in a subjective and quantitative methodology based on experience and supervision. Finally, a web-based system is established to enhance the practical usability, which is expected to be a good reference for inexperienced SMCCs to make proper decisions and establish effective business strategies.

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Extraction and Analysis of Construction Phase Risk Factors in High-rise Construction Project (초고층 건설공사 시공단계 리스크 요인 도출 및 분석)

  • Kim, Sooyong;Kim, Sunghyun;Yang, Jinkook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.90-98
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    • 2016
  • High-rise buildings construction project have various risk factors. Major risk factors are negative results such as time delay and increase of costs. Therefore, this study was analyzed risk factors in construction stages of high-rise buildings using by PROMETHEE technique. For this, this research were identified risk factors through experts Focus Group Interview(FGI). And, PROMETHEE was used to setup evaluation standard for analysis of high-rise building construction risks. Next, the standard of evaluation index calculation was composed by using the definition level in PDRI. Preference function and evaluation index were identified through questionnaires. Through these processes, this study has calculated the importance of high-rise building construction risks using by PROMETHEE technique. As a result, high degree risk factors were as following. These are 'Operation plan of material lifting', 'Outrigger & Belt Truss Construction', 'Foundation work plan of high-rise building' and 'Considering a Structure concept of high-rise building'.

Criteria for the Float Distribution (여유시간 분배기준에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Gul-Chan;Kim Kyung-Rai;Shin Dong-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.509-512
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    • 2003
  • The Critical Path Method(CPM) is an effective tool used for planning and scheduling. One of strong point in the CPM is what can calculate float. Float is able to prolong without having an effect on overall schedule of project, however concept and scope about ownership is not definite, because it is a by-product of project. Thus participants have had many dispute in using float because of their interests. In recent years, a few theories have evolved in an attempt to solve this problem. But the prior research did not make a reasonable distribution of float because their criteria of distribution was based on ratio for total project time. Actually, an application of float is achieved by participant's delay risk. Therefore. this paper proposes criteria for float distribution using delay risks, and the framework for the assessment of the delay risks.

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