• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.217-239
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• 2009

As gas hydrate is recently emerging as a new energy source to solve environmental and exhaustion problems caused by fossil energy, Korea is working on a gas hydrate development project under a 10-year plan from 2005 to 2014. Gas hydrate is expected to have a big effect on the economy and society of Korea, which is largely depending on energy imports besides water energy and atomic energy. However, it is uncertain whether the project will produce successful results. Thus, it is very important to improve its validity and to propose effective execution strategies by evaluating the value of the project in advance. Thus, this study intended to include new information, which had not been evaluated in existing methods, and to reduce biases or errors in value evaluation results by applying a fuzzy risk analysis to the real option model in order to evaluate the value of a gas hydrate development project. It is advantageous that the real option model based on the fuzzy risk analysis modelizes the vagueness and inexactness of intangible element judgment into an appropriate language scale so as to evaluate these elements clearly and integrate them with estimated financial performance results. The application of the fuzzy risk analysis makes it possible to conduct an analysis by dissolving a decision-making issue with complicated and various attributes into several simplified problems. With the continuing high oil prices and today's demand of clean energy, the necessity of energy resources and technology development projects keeps growing. Amid this situation, it is expected that these study results will contribute to proposing a guideline not only for gas hydrate projects but also for policy decision-making related to future energy industries.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.67-76
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• 2022

Power generation construction projects involving large amounts of capital can affect the survival of a company along with huge economic losses in the event of a business failure. In general, private companies are organizations with challenging risk taking tendencies while public companies have a risk averse tendency to avoid risk, so these differences in organizational tendencies make it difficult to respond to risk. In particular, public companies are more likely to fail than private companies because they choose the contradiction of risk picking to enter overseas markets with high uncertainty despite their tendency to risk averse due to the nature of the organization. Therefore, these organizations need risk management techniques that reflect a risk-averse strategy. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the risk management research papers of the existing overseas development EPC business in order to find the risk management techniques related to the organizational tendencies of public companies and proposes "establishing a performance audit system for risk management of the organizational tendencies of public companies" as a way to extract the risk factors through the examples of overseas development projects of public companies and to manage the organizational tendencies of public companies that affect them.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.34-41
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• 2017

The Pyro project, one of the large national R&D project to construct Korea Advanced Pyroprocessing Facility (KAPF), which has many goals such as development of pyro technology and process equipment, design of equipment and facility, construction, and test operation, is now under research and development. To reduce uncertainty and risk of such complex project, the technical management processes in systems engineering standards and NASA handbook were reviewed, and then the ten common technical management processes were selected for the large national R&D project to meet its goal successfully. And the essential technical management processes were finally suggested for Pyro project in consideration of current situation of the project.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.5 no.2 s.18
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• pp.144-152
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• 2004

Defining value as a measure of how well the project value objectives are met, Value Management Process (VMP) is considered to be any management effort or process that can proactively pursue one or more project objectives (i.e., security/safety, cost effectiveness, schedule optimization, and risk containment). The collection of 44 VMPs has been established based on a rigorous effort conducted by Construction Industry Institute (CII). Because varying circumstances on each project determine the level of suitability, it is crucial to identify which VMP should be implemented on a particular project. The current VMP selection process is primarily based on human intuition. The main objective of this paper is to provide a systematic method to facilitate the usage of VMPs on a particular project. This paper identified and quantified the selection principles (i.e., targeted value objectives, timing of initiation, project characteristics, and relative impact). The data collected from industry practitioners and VMP experts characterized each VMP in terms of the magnitude of benefit. An automated selection tool by Visual Basic Application (VBA) on MS Excel TM, was developed and proved its validity. As a pioneering study, this paper provides a comprehensive and structured knowledge on the subject of VMPs. From the industry's perspective, the automated selection tool, the premier of this study, contributes the facilitation of the VMP implementations in the construction industry thereby maximizing the potential benefits to a particular project.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.800-807
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• 2009

The limited public funds available for infrastructure projects have led governments to consider private entities' participation in long-term contracts for finance, construction, and operation of these projects to share risks and rewards between the public and the private. Because these projects have complicated risk evolutions, diverse contractual forms for each project member to hedge risks involved in a project are necessary. In light of this, Build-Operate-Transfer(BOT) model is considered as effective to accomplish Public Private Partnerships(PPPs) with a characteristic of an ownership-reversion. In BOT projects, the government has used such an incentive system as minimum revenue guarantee(MRG) agreement to attract the private's participation. Although this agreement turns out critical in success of BOT project, there still exist problematic issues in a financial feasibility analysis since the traditional capital budgeting theory, Net Present Value(NPV) analysis, has failed to evaluate the contingent characteristic of MRG agreement. The purpose of this research is to develop real option model based on option pricing theory so as to provide a theoretical framework in valuing MRG agreement in BOT projects. To understand the applicability of the model, the model is applied to the example of the BOT toll road project and the results are compared with that by NPV analysis. Finally, we found that the impact of the MRG agreement is significant on the project value. Hence, the real option model can help the government establish better BOT policies and the developer make appropriate bidding strategies.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2017.10a
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• pp.291-296
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• 2017

Infrastructure development as national project suffers from social conflict which is one of main risk to be managed. Social conflicts have a negative impact on not only the social integration but also the national economy as they require enormous social costs to be solved. Against this backdrop, this study analyzes social conflict using articles published by online news media based on web-crawling and natural language processing (NLP) techniques. As an illustrative case, the Jeju Naval Base (JNB) project which is one of representative conflict case in South Korea is analyzed. Total of 21,788 articles and representative keywords are identified annually. Additionally, comparative analysis is conducted between the extracted keywords and actual events occurred during the project. The authors explain actual events in the JNB project based on the extracted words by the year. This study contributes to analyze social conflict and to extract meaningful information from unstructured data.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.71-80
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• 2016

PERT(Project Evaluation and Review Technique) is typical method in order to probabilistically establish the schedule plan for large scale complex project or mega project. PERT technique is impossible to estimate relationship of each activity probabilistically when there are overlapping relationships because it is limited to Finish-to-Start(FS) relationship. In order to overcome this kind of limitation of PERT technique, PLET(Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique) has been suggested to probabilistically estimate project duration for various overlapping relationships for each activity. However, estimating project duration by PLET technique only considers uncertainty of relationship between activities and not activity time, thus it is not the perfect duration estimating method. The main objective of this research is to propose the integration model of PERT and PLET and verify its probabilistic validity. By verifying application of time calculation method of integration model in practical case, this research will suggest probabilistic project duration estimating method in schedule plan of high-risk construction industry.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.627-638
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• 1998

For any hazardous operation or risky project to be carried out safely and economically, it is of the utmost importance to formulate proper risk management policies based on the rational assessment of the risk levels of various potential hazards. In this paper, a Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making(FMCDM) method for risk assessment is proposed. The method evaluates, on the basis of fuzzy set theory, the risk level of a risky situation by aggregating the assessed levels of risk factors and their subjective weights. The method also allows some flexibility for the future users in the sense that, first, the relative importance weights for the three risk factors can be adjusted according to the nature of projects or systems and, second, the users have the choice between the two types of risk assessment results, that is, the assessed risk levels or the ranks of the risk situations. A numerical example for the proposed FMCDM method is provided to illustrate the computational procedure. To see how the suggested FMCDM method describes well people's perceived risk level, we compared the risk values derived from the suggested method with the subjective risk evaluations for ten risky situations.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.38-45
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to deduct the structural damage / work process risks factors which can be occurred during the decommissioning in the NPP containment concrete structure. To achieve these purpose, risk profile specified in the construction industry is analyzed, and the work process of NPP decommissioning and the construction project were matched based on the similarity of each works. Accordingly, human and physical risk factors are classified. Finally, the risk associated with the building structure and work process was classified as per their process activities, and risk typology explaining the disaster which put the structure, equipments, machine and workers in serious danger was developed.

• Journal of Convergence Society for SMB
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.45-53
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• 2011

There are always many kinds of risks in software development such as frequent changes of requirements. Especially those risks related to the software characteristic of non-visibility can be threat to the project success. That lead us to the need of process implementation to reduce and minimize those risks. Although, most of the organization recognizes the importance of risk management, actual implementation requires professional knowledge in this area. CMMI, the de facto standard in process reference model, also emphasizes on risk management process area but only provides goals and practices to be implemented, not detail procedure and methods. In this paper, we developed Risk management implementation model based on IDEAL, the process improvement model based on CMMI. The proposed model will help the organizations to implement risk management process which is proper to their situation in the factor of organization size and project characteristics.