Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation by Combination of PERT and PLET in High-Risk Project

고위험 사업에서 PERT와 PLET기법 결합에 의한 확률적 사업공기 추정

  • Kim, Seon-Gyoo (Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Junyoung (Department of Architecture and Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2016.03.04
  • Accepted : 2016.04.06
  • Published : 2016.05.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

PERT(Project Evaluation and Review Technique) is typical method in order to probabilistically establish the schedule plan for large scale complex project or mega project. PERT technique is impossible to estimate relationship of each activity probabilistically when there are overlapping relationships because it is limited to Finish-to-Start(FS) relationship. In order to overcome this kind of limitation of PERT technique, PLET(Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique) has been suggested to probabilistically estimate project duration for various overlapping relationships for each activity. However, estimating project duration by PLET technique only considers uncertainty of relationship between activities and not activity time, thus it is not the perfect duration estimating method. The main objective of this research is to propose the integration model of PERT and PLET and verify its probabilistic validity. By verifying application of time calculation method of integration model in practical case, this research will suggest probabilistic project duration estimating method in schedule plan of high-risk construction industry.

대규모 복합 프로젝트(complex project) 또는 메가 프로젝트(mega project)들에서 확률적으로 공정계획을 수립하는 대표적인 방법이 PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique)기법이다. PERT기법은 작업공기의 불확실성에만 중점을 두고 작업간 연결관계는 Finish-to-Start(FS)관계로 제한되기 때문에 작업간 중복관계가 존재할 경우 작업간 연결관계의 불확실성에 대한 확률적인 추정이 불가능하다. PERT기법의 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위해, 작업간 다양한 중복관계들의 불확실성을 고려하여 사업전체 공기를 추정하는 방법으로 PLET (Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique)기법을 제안되었다. 그러나 PLET 기법에 의한 사업공기 추정은 작업간 연결관계의 불확실성만을 고려할 뿐, PERT기법에서의 작업공기에 대한 불확실성은 고려하지 않으므로, 완전한 사업공기 추정방법이라 할 수 없다. 본 논문은 작업공기의 불확실성을 고려하는 PERT기법과 작업간 연결관계의 불확실성을 고려하는 PLET기법을 결합시켜 사업공기를 추정하는 통합 모델을 제안하고 확률적 타당성을 검증한다. 그리고 통합 모델의 일정계산방법을 제시하고 이를 실제사례에 적용하여 검증함으로써, 고위험 건설사업의 공정계획을 수립할 때 보다 폭넓고 다양한 위험요인들을 통합적으로 고려하는 확률적 사업공기 추정 방법을 제안하는 것이다.

Keywords

References

  1. Ahn, S. C. (2014). "Forward-Looking Probability and Statistics" Hanbit Media Inc. Korea, pp. 15-26.
  2. Barraza, G. A. (2011). "Probabilistic Estimation and Allocation of Project Time Contingency" Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, USA.
  3. Bruce, P. J., and Matthew, J. L. (2005). "Project Planning Under Uncertainty Using Scenario Analysis" Project Management Journal, PMI, pp. 15-26.
  4. Callahan, M. T., Quackenbush, D. G., and Rowings, J. E. (1992). "Construction Project Scheduling" McGraw-Hill, USA.
  5. Cheong, H. Y. (2012). "Probability, Random Variable and Random Process" Hanbit Media Inc. Korea, pp. 15-26.
  6. Edwards, L. (1995). "Practical Risk Management in the Construction Industry" Thomas Telford, England.
  7. Forgionne, G. A. (1985). "Quantitative Decision Making" Wadsworth Inc., USA.
  8. Harris, R. B. (1978). "Precedence and Arrow Networking Techniques for Construction" John Wiley & Sons, USA.
  9. Hullet, D. T. (2009). "Practical Schedule Risk Analysis" Gower Publishing ltd., England.
  10. Kim, S. (2010). "Advanced Scheduling Technique", Kimoon-Dang, Korea.
  11. Kim, S. (2010). "Construction Risk Management", Kimoon-Dang, Korea
  12. Kim, S., Yoo, J., Kim, D., and Park, J. (2014). "TACT Scheduling & Monitoring of Apartment Finish Works based on the BDM Technique", Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KICEM, 15(2), Korea.
  13. Kim, S. (2014). "Estimation of Project Duration by Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique (PLET)", Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, KICEM, 15(6), Korea.
  14. Kim, S. (2015). "BDM Scheduling", Munwoon-Dang, Korea.
  15. Leach, L. (2003). "Schedule and cost buffer sizing; How to account for the bias between project performance and your model." Project Management Journal, USA.
  16. Peebles, P. Z. (2001). "Probability, Random Variables and Random Signal Principles" McGraw-Hill, USA.
  17. Pritsker, A. A. B. (1966). "GERT: Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique" National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA.
  18. Smith, N. J. (1999). "Managing Risk in Construction Project" Blackwell Science, USA.
  19. Walpole, R. E., and Myers, R. H., (1985). "Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists-Third Edition" Macmillan Publishing Company, USA.