• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.43-58
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• 2013

This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.5-12
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• 2010

Unlike housing development project that can ensure profit by selling built units, a hotel development depends on long-term business operation to be profitable due to characteristics of service industry. The expected cash flow has substantial uncertainty depending on room occupancy rate and room charge. Thus, even after construction is complete, business risk tends to rise. It is necessary to ensure strategic response to uncertainty in future value of a hotel. The objective of the study is to explore strategic measures to deal with risk and uncertain future value in hotel development project by adopting abandonment option, which is a type of real options. The case in analysis had sevenyears of project period: Two years for construction, and five years for operation; a plan was made to sell the hotel after five years' of operation. For the research purpose, option value ofrecoverable investment amount was estimated, and value of abandonment option was KRW 124.921 billion. When abandonment option is applied, the project value was deemed to be KRW 120.592 billion. Generally, the amount of loss is enormous when a real estate project like a hotel development fails, and therefore, application of option is expected to be an effective measure to leverage uncertainty of a project.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.1-6
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• 2013

Developing Build-Own (or Operate)-Transfer (BOT) nuclear power project carrying large capital in the long term requires initially well-made multi-decision which it prevents sorts of risks from unexpected situation of target countries. In order to analyze the feasibility of project country, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is adopted. Firstly, the factors influencing the success of BOT nuclear power project in overseas countries were investigated through the literature survey for the country risk and were evaluated by expert interview for estimating comparative weight through pairwise comparison between such factors. Finally, it is developed comparative database of alternate countries with respect to each factor. This analytic method enables the developer to select and focus on the country which has preferable circumstance so that it enhances the efficiency of the project promotion. Also, it enables the developer to quantify the qualitative factors so that it diversifies the project success strategy and policy for the target country.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.121-132
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• 2011

One of the advantages of BOT PF(Project Finance) is the government can be protected from risks involved in projects as the private finances, builds, and operates relevant projects. Moreover, the private may avoid outstanding responsibility in case of default thanks to BOT PF's unique financial structure and characteristics. However, despite increasing attention on risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF to default risk with emerging controversies of capital crunch, introduction of IFRS, and contingent liabilities, valuation of default risk mitigation effect caused by financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF still seems sophisticated due to uncertain cash flows, complexly layered contracts, and their interaction. So, this paper is to show the theoretical frame to assess the default risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF with option pricing and related financial economic theories and to provide some meaningful implications. Finally, this research shows that the financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF help mitigate the default risk and default risk mitigation effect increases as change of relevant variables on financial feasibility gets the BOT project less financially feasible.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.408-413
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• 2004

Early planning phase of private development project is an important part in mercy of failure and success of all project. Hut reliability of analysis result existing planning phase in not high to the importance. So we analyzed a basic problem point through case study and research data analysis of planning phase in private development project. After this, there is a cause in no establishment of systemic model about work processing and method of planning phase. We would like to suggest the solution through establishment of planning phase analysis processing and risk management model. We think that suggested analysis method increase the credibility of analysis result. With this, we anticipate we suggest the guideline in project process phase and that assist the effective accomplishment of project.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.1 s.29
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• pp.168-175
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• 2006

Since the partly changed 'Private Investment Act for Social Infrastructure Projects' set forth in January 2005, the number of BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) projects offered to the market has rapidly increased. The scope of BTL projects offered covers not only legally defined facilities but several facilities for the private schools. A BTL project, by definition, is a way of project management that includes the entire process of development such as planning, design, construction and operation over the period of 20-30 years. As a result, various types of risk may happen at each stage of the project and it is extremely important to efficiently control the sensitive factors that affect the risk profiles of the project. The examples of the sensitive factors are construction cost, interest rate, discount rate, lease amount, rental fee, O&M cost and so on. This study examines the characteristics of these sensitivity factors, analyzes their impact on the project feasibility and suggests the alternatives to manage them efficiently.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.73-83
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• 2013

Recently, not only around Korea but also other countries shows a pattern of arising high-rise building construction project which was delayed or aborted during global economic crises and recession. Although the market starts to stretch, It is getting competitive to win a contract in high-rise construction project between contractors due to lack of competitive advantage especially to Korea contractors. To get that, Korean contractors needs lifting equipment plan. But currently, they depend on the empirical methods and that cause schedule delay, not controlled cost management problem. Therefore, this research is to improve the accuracy of Lifting plan by analyzing the current issues of Lifting plan system and deducing the types of failures with planning factors, as well as analyzing the impact on schedule and cost control and safety management by each failure mode. Also, by analyzing detail risk factors per Lifting Equipment with FMEA, to infer the critical risk factor on high-rise construction project.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.347-356
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• 2020

Mechanization and automation constitute an essential stage in the production and operation of any company, as one of the determinants of increase in labor productivity and decrease in product price, while significantly contributing to shortening of the lead time. Businesses are, therefore, able to quickly put projects into operation, improving economic efficiency, quality, and aesthetics, which speeds up the national economic growth. For the construction industry to be the most effective, modern construction equipment is a necessity. It is one of the five main resources of a construction project. Thus, effective construction equipment management contributes to the success of a project and benefits the relevant construction companies economically. This paper presents the critical risk factors affecting equipment management and proposes suitable solutions. The questionnaire-based survey with experienced experts in the construction sector on the management of the likelihood and consequence of risk factors revealed thirty-two risks for equipment management in construction companies. These factors fell into six groups: (i) site organization-related risks; (ii) management-related risks; (iii) owner-related risks; (iv) supplier-related risks; (v) legal risks, and (vi) site condition-related and external risks. The results showed that management-related factors contributed to the most significant risks and problems for equipment management in construction companies.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.61-69
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• 2018

The buildings are getting enormous and more complex as well as the requirement of the owner which wants diverse and efficient. Moreover advanced management is necessary for construction services and a new method of delivering project is now required. In order to expand the delivering method and the construction industry, we have to introduced the CM at Risk method. However, despite the fact that six years have passed already the CM at Risk regulation was introduced, the contract amount in significantly lower than that of the CM for fee, and also there is no CM at Risk project in the public sector. As a result, three pilot projects are currently underway for the LH(Korea Land & Housing Corporation) in order to set up a CM at Risk for the public sector. However, detailed regulations related to CM at Risk have not yet been implemented in Korea. Therefore, in this study, I am trying to understand the risks that could incur when practitioners participate in the three pilot projects that are currently underway and employed in the public sector wherein the CM at Risk is normally introduced. Based on the results of this study, It will be able to utilize as a basic data for future CM at Risk delivery system improvement and enactment.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.304-311
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• 2022

Construction inspection is a crucial stage that ensures that all contractual requirements of a construction project are verified. The construction inspection capabilities among state highway agencies have been greatly affected due to budget reduction. As a result, efficient inspection practices such as risk-based inspection are required to optimize the use of limited resources without compromising inspection quality. Automated prioritization of textual requirements according to their criticality would be extremely helpful since contractual requirements are typically presented in an unstructured natural language in voluminous text documents. The current study introduces a novel model for predicting the risk level of requirements using machine learning (ML) algorithms. The ML algorithms tested in this study included naïve Bayes, support vector machines, logistic regression, and random forest. The training data includes sequences of requirement texts which were labeled with risk levels (such as very low, low, medium, high, very high) using the fuzzy logic systems. The fuzzy model treats the three risk factors (severity, probability, detectability) as fuzzy input variables, and implements the fuzzy inference rules to determine the labels of requirements. The performance of the model was examined on labeled dataset created by fuzzy inference rules and three different membership functions. The developed requirement risk prediction model yielded a precision, recall, and f-score of 78.18%, 77.75%, and 75.82%, respectively. The proposed model is expected to provide construction inspectors with a means for the automated prioritization of voluminous requirements by their importance, thus help to maximize the effectiveness of inspection activities under resource constraints.