• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 학계
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• pp.159-162
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• 2009

Today's construction is more various and more complex. Because of that, a lot of uncertain factors are occurred and they related uncertain construction duration. For management complex architecture project, importance of construction schedule management also increased. In previous studies, one of solutions to overcome those problems is suggested. It was BIM based construction simulation process which focused on construction schedule and construction schedule management. But latest process had limited point which has no duration estimation function. So this paper suggested duration estimation method and developed duration estimation module. Duration estimation module developed with current scheduling tool MS Project and their macro function. However, this module has just developed Reinforced Concrete Structure and has to do more development and research.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2000년도 추계정기학술대회:지능형기술과 CRM
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• pp.369-374
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• 2000

Despite their tilde application of some traditional project management techniques like the Program Evaluation and Review Technique, they lack of learning, one of important factors in many disciplines today due to a static view far prefect progression. This study proposes a framework for estimation by learning based on a Linear Bayesian approach. As a project progresses, we sequentially observe the durations of completed activities. By reflecting this newly available information to update the distribution of remaining activity durations and thus project duration, we can implement a decision support system that updates e.g. the expected project completion time as well as the probabilities of completing the project within talc due date and by a certain date. By Implementing such customized systems, project manager can be aware of changing project status more effectively and better revise resource allocation plans.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.20-28
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• 2004

소프트웨어 개발 초기에 개발비용, 소묘인력과 기간을 추정하는 것은 소프트웨어공학 분야의 중요하면서도 어려운 문제이다. 기존 모델은 개발업체의 생산성 수준을 고려하지 않고 단순히 기능점수와 노력, 노력과 개발기간 관계에 대한 회귀분석을 통해 개발노력과 기간을 추정하는 모델을 제시하였다. 그러나 동일한 규모의 소프트웨어라도 개발업체의 생산성 수준에 따라 다른 노력의 양이 투입되며, 동일한 노력이 투입되더라도 생산성에 따라 개발기간이 달라진다. 생산성 수준을 고려하지 않은 제안된 모델들은 실제 개발될 프로젝트 적용에 제한점을 갖고 있다. 본 논문은 기존 모텔의 단점을 보완하기 위해 생산성을 고려하여 개발기간을 추정할 수 있는 모델들을 제안한다. 생산성에 기반 하여 다양한 방법으로 개발기간을 추정할 수 있는 모델을 제안하고 모델들의 성능을 비교하였다. 모델 성능 비교 결과 생산성에 기반 하여 소프트웨어 규모로부터 개발기간을 추정하는 모델이 단순하면서도 가장 좋은 결과를 얻었다. 본 모델은 사업 초기에 프로젝트 관리자에게 소프트웨어 개발 기간 의사결정 정보를 제공한다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.608-615
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• 2022

Construction projects are large-scale projects that require extensive construction costs and resources. Especially, scheduling is considered as one of the essential issues for project success. However, the schedule and resource management are challenging to conduct in high-tech construction projects including complex design of MEP and architectural finishing which has to be constructed within a limited workspace and duration. In order to deal with such a problem, this study suggests resource and sequence optimization using constraint programming in construction projects. The optimization model consists of two modules. The first module is the data structure of the schedule model, which consists of parameters for optimization such as labor, task, workspace, and the work interference rate. The second module is the optimization module, which is for optimizing resources and sequences based on Constraint Programming (CP) methodology. For model validation, actual data of plumbing works were collected from a construction project using a five-minute rate (FMR) method. By comparing actual data and optimized results, this study shows the possibility of reducing the duration of plumbing works in construction projects. This study shows decreased overall project duration by eliminating work interference by optimizing resources and sequences within limited workspaces.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.71-80
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• 2016

대규모 복합 프로젝트(complex project) 또는 메가 프로젝트(mega project)들에서 확률적으로 공정계획을 수립하는 대표적인 방법이 PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique)기법이다. PERT기법은 작업공기의 불확실성에만 중점을 두고 작업간 연결관계는 Finish-to-Start(FS)관계로 제한되기 때문에 작업간 중복관계가 존재할 경우 작업간 연결관계의 불확실성에 대한 확률적인 추정이 불가능하다. PERT기법의 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위해, 작업간 다양한 중복관계들의 불확실성을 고려하여 사업전체 공기를 추정하는 방법으로 PLET (Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique)기법을 제안되었다. 그러나 PLET 기법에 의한 사업공기 추정은 작업간 연결관계의 불확실성만을 고려할 뿐, PERT기법에서의 작업공기에 대한 불확실성은 고려하지 않으므로, 완전한 사업공기 추정방법이라 할 수 없다. 본 논문은 작업공기의 불확실성을 고려하는 PERT기법과 작업간 연결관계의 불확실성을 고려하는 PLET기법을 결합시켜 사업공기를 추정하는 통합 모델을 제안하고 확률적 타당성을 검증한다. 그리고 통합 모델의 일정계산방법을 제시하고 이를 실제사례에 적용하여 검증함으로써, 고위험 건설사업의 공정계획을 수립할 때 보다 폭넓고 다양한 위험요인들을 통합적으로 고려하는 확률적 사업공기 추정 방법을 제안하는 것이다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제64권2호
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• pp.47-55
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• 2022

The objective of this study was to analyze the effect of the duration and time distribution of probability rainfall on farmland inundation for the paddy fields in the drainage improvement project site. In this study, eight drainage improvement project sites were selected for inundation modeling. Hourly rainfall data were collected, and 20- and 30-year frequency probability rainfalls were estimated for 14 different durations. Probability rainfalls were distributed using Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) and Huff time distribution methods. Design floods were calculated for 48 hr and critical duration, and IDF time distribution and Huff time distribution were used for 48 hr duration and critical duration, respectively. Inundation modeling was carried out for each study district using 48 hr and critical duration rainfalls. The result showed that six of the eight districts had a larger flood discharge using the method of applying critical duration and Huff distribution. The results of inundation depth analysis showed similar trends to those of design flood calculations. However, the inundation durations showed different tendencies from the inundation depth. The IDF time distribution is a distribution in which most of the rainfall is concentrated at the beginning of rainfall, and the theoretical background is unclear. It is considered desirable to apply critical duration and Huff time distribution to agricultural production infrastructure design standards in consideration of uniformity with other design standards such as flood calculation standard guidelines.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2005

This paper, introduces a Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS III) developed by the author to predict a project completion probability in a certain time. The system integrates deterministic CPM, probabilistic PERT, and stochastic Discrete Event Simulation (DES) scheduling methods into one system. It implements automated statistical analysis methods for computing the minimum number of simulation runs, the significance of the difference between independent simulations, and the confidence interval for the mean project duration as well as sensitivity analysis method in What-if analyzer component. The SPSS 111 gives the several benefits to researchers in that it (1) complements PERT and Monte Carlo simulation by using stochastic activity durations via a web based JAVA simulation over the Internet, (2) provides a way to model a project network having different probability distribution functions, (3) implements statistical analyses method which enable to produce a reliable prediction of the probability of completing a project in a specified time, and (4) allows researchers to compare the outcome of CPM, PERT and DES under different variability or skewness in the activity duration data.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.892-896
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• 2005

This paper collected 132 schools reconstruction projects in central Taiwan, which received the most serious damage from the Chi-Chi Earthquake. Regression analysis was implemented to build the prediction model of the cost and the duration for the collected projects. It is found that the cubic regression models are capable for predicting the cost and the duration of the projects contracted by the central agency of which the contracting awarding approach was based on the most advantageous tendering (MAT) approach. On the other hand, power regression models are capable for predicting the cost and the duration of the projects contracted through the low bid tendering (LBT) approach. It is also found that the performance of the regression prediction model differs in accordance with organizations that contracted the reconstruction projects.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2008년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.597-600
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• 2008

최근 국내에서 도심재생을 위한 입체복합공간 개발사업으로 여러 메가프로젝트가 수행중이지만, 메가프로젝트 실적 자료 및 경험, 기술부족으로 인해 여러 가지 문제점들이 드러나고 있다. 다양한 유형의 프로젝트들로 구성된 입체 복합공간 개발 사업에서 프로그램 및 프로젝트 수준으로 메가프로젝트를 관리할 수 있는 기술이 요구된다. 메가프로젝트는 다년간에 걸쳐 수행되는 사업으로 사업기간 예측과 그에 따른 공정관리가 무엇보다 중요하다. 따라서 메가프로젝트 특성에 맞는 프로그램레벨에서의 공정관리 기술 개발이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 공정관리 기술개발의 선행연구로 사업초기단계 사업기간 예측 및 일정 계획 방법에 대해서 제시하였다. 먼저 과거 수행된 단일시설 및 복합시설의 프로젝트 속성정보와 설계 및 공사기간의 일정데이터를 수집하여, 프로젝트 기간 예측을 위한 DB의 개발방향을 제시하였다. 그리고 메가프로젝트 사업초기단계 사업기간 예측 시 영향을 미치는 발주자의 요구사항과 사업비 투입계획에 따라 시나리오를 개발하여 사업기간 예측 방법에 대해 제시하였고, CCPM을 통한 사업기간 단축가능성을 제시하였다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 1994년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집; 창원대학교; 08월 09일 Apr. 1994
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• pp.410-420
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• 1994

In many project-oriented production systems, e.g., shipyards or large-scale steel products manufacturing, resource loading by an activity is flexible, and the activity duration is a function of resource allocation. For example, if one doubles the size of the crew assigned to perform an activity, it may be feasible to complete the activity in half the duration. Such flexibility has been modeled by Weglarz [131 and by Leachman, Dincerler, and Kim [7] in extended formulations of the resource-constrained project scheduling problem. This paper presents a new algorithmic approach to the problem that combines the ideas proposed by the aforementioned authors. The method we propose involves a two-step approach: (1) solve the resource-constrained scheduling problem using a heuristic, and (2) using this schedule as an initial feasible solution, find improved resource allocations by solving a linear programming model. We provide computational results indicating the superiority of this approach to previous methodology for the resource-constrained scheduling problem. Extensions to the model to admit overlap relationships of the activities also are presented.