• Title/Summary/Keyword: Project Uncertainties

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Feasibility Analysis on Slag Reprocessing Project in Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR콩고 루붐바시 슬래그재처리사업(再處理事業)의 경제성(經濟性) 평가(評價))

  • Kim, Yu-Jeong;Kim, Dae-Hyoung
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2012
  • One of the world's top resource-rich countries, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has ample reserves of cobalt, iron ore, copper and diamond in particular. Importing most of major mineral resources, the Republic of Korea has examined-together with the Congo government since 2008-the possibility of a project where it supports port construction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and acquires useful minerals such as zinc, cobalt and copper in exchange through slag reprocessing in the local city of Lubumbashi. This study conducted feasibility analysis on the slag reprocessing project in Lubumbashi, Congo and found that the project's payback period stands at 6.7 years, net present value(NPV) at 34 million dollars and internal rate of return(IRR) at 17.4%. According to sensitivity analysis that takes into account uncertainties concerning taxation, fixed cost, operational cost and resource prices, the NPV of the project ranges from -24.8 million dollars to 92.7 million dollars.

Critical Chain Project Management as a New Paradigm for Reducing the Project Delivery Time (프로젝트 일정 단축을 위한 새로운 경영 패러다임 Critical Chain Project Management(CCPM))

  • Jang, Seong-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.68-74
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    • 2007
  • Critical Chain Project Management(CCPM) is a new project management system paradigm which maintains the advantages of PERT/CPM and improves the shortcomings of it. In CCPM the task durations are determined as 50% time estimates, ie average time discarding the their contingency. CCPM determines the critical chain the constraint of a projects considering the logical precedence relationship and resource conflict resolution. Project buffer is located at the end of critical chain to absorb the variations of critical chain. The size of project buffer is usually calculated as the half of the sum of critical chain length. Also feeding buffer is inserted after each non-critical chain which feeding into the critical chain to prevent the time delay of critical chain from uncertainties of non-critical chains. Resource buffer can be utilized to improve the availability of resources of critical chain. Buffer management is a project execution and control mechanism. Buffers are classified into 3 zones. They are OK zone, Watch and Plan zone and Expediting zone. If the project status is within Watch and Plan zone, contingency plan is established. And if it changes into Expediting zone, the preplanned contingency plan are executed to recover the time delay. In CCPM the workers are asked to work with relay runner work mechanism that they work fast if possible and report their completion to project manager for the succeeding task to start as soon as possible. The task durations are not considered as the promised time schedule. The multi-tasking is prohibited.

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Concept Selection of NPP Construction Delay Risk Assessment Methodology Using Systems Engineering Approach

  • Hossen, Muhammed Mufazzal;Kang, Sunkoo;Jung, JC;Kim, Jonghyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.9-24
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    • 2015
  • Construction industry faces a lot of inherent uncertainties and issues and the construction phase of nuclear power project is not free from this risk. This paper investigates promising methodologies to be used on nuclear power plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment by using entry level systems engineering approach. This study contains how the initial concept for the risk assessment methodology has been developed. In this point of view, this work structured on three main phases: needs analysis (NA), concept exploration (CE), and concept definition (CD) through systems engineering (SE) approach. Traditionally, the SE process is applied to technical development programs but this study opens up a new avenue that SE can also be successfully applied to the development and optimization of the risk assessment model. This study provides a rational and systematic process for developing and selecting the best risk assessment model. This paper selects analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to assess NPP construction schedule delay risk for international project. As conclusion, the proposed concept and selected method can discriminate successfully and clearly among schedule delay risk assessment methods.

Future Changes in Atmosphere Teleconnection over East Asia and North Pacific associated with ENSO in CMIP5 Models (CMIP5 모형에서 나타난 겨울철 동아시아와 북태평양 지역의 엘니뇨 원격상관의 미래변화)

  • Kim, Sunyong;Kug, Jong-Seong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.389-397
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    • 2015
  • The changes in the teleconnection associated with El Nin?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the East Asia and North Pacific under greenhouse warming are analyzed herein by comparing the Historical run (1970/1971~1999/2000) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 31 climate models, participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). It is found that CMIP5 models have diverse systematic errors in simulating the ENSO teleconnection pattern from model to model. Therefore, we select 21 models based on the models' performance in simulating teleconnection pattern in the present climate. It is shown that CMIP5 models tend to project an overall weaker teleconnection pattern associated with ENSO over East Asia in the future climate than that in the present climate. It can be also noted that the cyclonic flow over the North Pacific is weakened and shifted eastward. However, uncertainties for the ENSO teleconnection changes still exist, suggesting that much consistent agreements on this future teleconnections associated with ENSO should be taken in a further study.

The Effect of PL Leadership and Characteristics of Project on Project Participants' Satisfaction and Performance (PL 리더십 성향과 프로젝트 특성요인이 프로젝트 참여 만족 및 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Hee-Dong;Kim, Myung-Jin;Kang, So-Ra
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.53-79
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    • 2010
  • The study was originated from recognition that project participants' satisfaction should be Improved to raise project performance and to make progress of a successful project since the above dissatisfaction was operated as a danger factor of the project. The study selected one large-scale sample project and attempted measuring characteristics of the project, participants' satisfaction and project performance with the whole project participants. The study analyzed correlations between individual level (team members) and group level (development team), and examined what effect a sub project manager under complicated hierarchical organization of the large-scale project, namely PL (project leader)'s leadership style had on each individual project participant's satisfaction and what effect project uncertainty in organization/technology environment had on project participants' satisfaction and project performance. The study verified that development team (group) had an effect on team member (individual)-level project participants' satisfaction by disclosing that there was a significant dispersion among groups within project participants' satisfaction by each individual. It is analyzed that it is necessary to make improvement through approach by each pertinent team to raise individual-level project participants' satisfaction. The study also verified PL's ideal leadership under strict methodology and hierarchical control of the large-scale project. Based on the verification of the hypotheses, the results of the analysis were produced as follows. First, the development team affects the satisfaction level that an individual has when he/she participates in a project. This suggests that the satisfaction with project participation should be improved at the team level. In addition, the project management style and leadership orientation of the manager of a sub project who is mostly affected by the team proved to have a direct influence on the satisfaction with project participation and project performances. Second, both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership of the PL of the development team were verified to have a significant effect on the satisfaction of the team members associated with project participation. In other words, when the team members recognize that the PL of the development team shows both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership, their satisfaction with project participation increases accordingly. Third, it was verified that the uncertainty of the organizational environment significantly affects the satisfaction level when the PL of the development team exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership. The higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the relationship-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the performance-oriented leadership style. Fourth, when the PL of the development team exerts the relationship-related and performance-related leadership, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant influence on the satisfaction level. The higher the uncertainty of the technological environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the performance-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the relationship-oriented leadership style. The result of the research on the uncertainty of the project environment suggests that when the development team leader exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the organizational environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment, the more the satisfaction level decreases, and the relationship-oriented leadership style affects the satisfaction level more positively than the performance-oriented leadership style. In addition, when the development team leader displays a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the technological environment. the more the satisfaction level decreases. The performance-oriented leadership style as well affects the satisfaction level more positively than the relationship-oriented leadership style. Based on the above results, the research provides the following implications when handling multiple concurrent projects. First, the satisfaction with the participation in the multiple concurrent projects needs to be enhanced at the team (group) level. Second. the manager of the project team, particularly the middle managers should have both a performance-oriented and relationship (task and human)-oriented attitude and exert a consolidated leadership in order to improve the satisfaction of team members with project participation and their performances. Third, as the uncertainty factor of the technological and organizational environment among the characteristics factors of the project has room for methodological improvement depending on one's effort even though there are some complications, we need to continuously prevent and control the risks resulting from the uncertainties of the technological and organizational environment of the project in order to enhance the satisfaction of project participation and project performances. Fourth, the performance (task)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in a technological environment while the relationship (human)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in an organizational environment. This research has the following limitations. First, this research intended to select one large-sized sample project and measure the project characteristics, the satisfaction of all the participants associated with project participation, and their performances. Therefore, it is inappropriate to generalize and apply the result of this result onto other numerous projects. Second, as this case study entailed a survey to measure the characteristics factors and performance of the project, since the result value was based on the perception of project team members, the data may have insufficient objectivity. Third, though this research targeted on all the project participants, some development teams did not provide sufficient data and questionnaires were collected from some specific development teams among the 23 development teams, causing a significant deviation in the response rate among the development teams. Therefore, we need to continuously conduct the follow-up researches making comparisons among the multiple projects, and centering on the characteristics factors of the project and its satisfaction level.

Financial Feasibility Study by Considering Risk Factors for High-Rise Development Project (초고층 개발사업의 리스크 요인을 고려한 재무적 타당성 분석)

  • Chun, Young-Jun;Cho, Joo-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.3-16
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    • 2017
  • Forecasting cash flow is very important but is difficult and complicated to analysis in high-rise development projects. And An expected value which was forecasted on the early stage is likely to fluctuate due to uncertainties around such complicated huge project to consider the probable uncertainty. There are not objectified method which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected financial analysis does not include liquidity of cash flow. Through such a stochastic method, developer can cope with cash flow fluctuation and set up a financial plan. Also this study is meaningful for laying the foundation for high-rise development project and feasibility study as well as the suitability and accuracy of feasibility study. Analysis showed that NPV and IRR include residential apartments shows surplus revenue as return of apartments offset deficit of hotel and office. Factors influencing the project feasibility for high-rise development project are sales account of $1^{st}$ year and annual vacancy rate of office.

The Development of a Standardized Work Process for Planning of Plant Project - Focus on Excavating and Investing Participation Plan - (플랜트 프로젝트 사업기획단계 표준 업무 프로세스 개발 - 사업발굴 및 사업참여 결정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Do-yun;Choi, Chang-Hoon;Won, Seo-kyung;Cho, Moon-Young;Han, Choong-Hee;Lee, Junbok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2016
  • Recently, overseas plant orders of domestic enterprises are steadily increased, and the amount of orders in the first half of 2014 were 93% increased compared to the previous year. In addition, now which is the third quarter of 2015, overseas plant orders are already over 249.8 billion dollars so the interests of plant industry research has been increased. In the life cycle of the plant project, CM before the construction stage is to complement the uncertainties that are inherent in the early stages of the project, and from the viewpoint of supporting the rational decision-making, the importance of its role is on the rise. Among them, excavating and investing participation plan in the planning stage is an important work that has a large impact force to influence the success and failure of future project. However, the work has become a problem with frequent consultations due to decision-making, continuous modification, and inefficient repetitive tasks. Therefore, it is needed that work process should be changed to effectively accommodate. The purpose of this paper is to derive the major work items for excavating and investing participation plan in the planning stage of the plant project, and establish a standardized work process through the Delphi analysis. The result of this study is expected to be utilized for EPC companies in ensuring the technical competitiveness in planning on overseas markets, and improve the efficiency of work.

Successful Winning Award Factors in Early Stage of International Public Private Partnership Projects (해외개발사업 발굴단계의 수주성공요인 분석)

  • Jung, Wooyong;Han, Seungheon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.84-94
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    • 2017
  • Recently, domestic construction companies have increasingly engaged in international PPP projects a result of both uncertainties in the domestic construction market and low competitiveness in international EPC project business. These international PPP projects usually require long-term preparations and substantial sales costs, which make it important for decision-makers to select winning-award potential project in early stage of the projects. However, most previous research has analyzed success factors in terms of project development across all stages. Thus, this study investigated 28 success factors of 4 categories in the early stage of 31 international PPP projects. First, results indicate that unsolicited PPP projects require better implementation capabilities and financial conditions compared to solicited PPP projects. Second, implementation capability is important because it is not easy to improve as the project proceeds. Third, commercial conditions are identified as important even if conditions are not fixed in the early stage of PPP projects. Fourth, non-commercial conditions, strategy, and public interest are not found to be meaningful in the early stage of PPP projects because they can vary as the project proceeds. This study helps to improve selection criteria aimed towards more winning-award potential project in the early stage of international PPP projects.

A Case Study on Function Point Method applying on Monte Carlo Simulation in Automotive Software Development

  • Do, Sung Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2020
  • Software development activities are influenced by stochastic theory rather than deterministic one due to having process variability. Stochastic methods factor in the uncertainties associated with project activities and provides insight into the expected project outputs as probability distributions rather than as deterministic approximations. Thus, successful software projects systematically manage and balance five objectives based on historical probability: scope, size, cost, effort, schedule, and quality. Although software size estimation having much uncertainty in initial development has traditionally performed using deterministic methods: LOC(Lines Of Code), COCOMO(COnsructive COst MOdel), FP(Function Point), SLIM(Software LIfecycle Management). This research aims to present a function point method based on stochastic distribution and a case study based on Monte Carlo Simulation applying on an automotive electrical and electronics system software development. It is expected that the result of this paper is used as guidance for establishing of function point method in organizations and tools for helping project managers make decisions correctly.

OPTIMIZING QUALITY AND COST OF METAL CURTAIN WALL USING MULTI-OBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHM AND QUALITY FUNCTION DEPLOYMENT

  • Tae-Kyung Lim;Chang-Baek Son;Jae-Jin Son;Dong-Eun Lee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.409-416
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents a tool called Quality-Cost optimization system (QCOS), which integrates Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD), for tradeoff between quality and cost of the unitized metal curtain-wall unit. A construction owner as the external customer pursues to maximize the quality of the curtain-wall unit. However, the contractor as the internal customer pursues to minimize the cost involved in designing, manufacturing and installing the curtain-wall unit. It is crucial for project manager to find the tradeoff point which satisfies the conflicting interests pursued by the both parties. The system would be beneficial to establish a quality plan satisfying the both parties. Survey questionnaires were administered to the construction owner who has an experience of curtain-wall project, the architects who are the independent assessor, and the contractors who were involved in curtain-wall design and installation. The Customer Requirements (CRs) and their importance weights, the relationship between CRs and Technical Attributes (TAs) consisting of a curtain-wall unit, and the cost ratios of each components consisting curtain-wall unit are obtained from the three groups mentioned previously. The data obtained from the surveys were used as the QFD input to compute the Owner Satisfaction (OS) and Contractor Satisfaction (CS). MOGA is applied to optimize resource allocation under limited budget when multi-objectives, OS and CS, are pursued at the same time. The deterministic multi-objective optimization method using MOGA and QFD is extended to stochastic model to better deal with the uncertainties of QFD input and the variability of QFD output. A case study demonstrates the system and verifies the system conformance.

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