• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1183-1188
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• 2009

Estimating project costs during the early stage of conceptual planning is very important when deciding whether to approve the project and allocate an appropriate budget. However, due to greater uncertainties involved in a project, it is challenging to estimate costs during this initial stage within a reasonable tolerance. This paper attempts to develop a cost-estimate model for public road projects under these circumstances and limitations. In the conceptual planning stage of a road project, there is only limited information for cost estimation, for example, such input data as total length of the route, origin and destination, number of lanes, general geographic characteristics of the route, and other basic attributes. This implies that the model should individuate suitable but restricted information without considering detailed features such as quantity of earthwork and a detailed route of a given condition. With these limited facts, this paper applies a case-based reasoning (CBR) method to solve a new problem by deriving similar past problems, which in turn is used to estimate the cost of a given project based on best-fitted previous cases. To develop a CBR cost-estimate model, the authors classified 8 representative variables, including project type, the number of lanes, total length, road design grades, etc. Then, we developed the CBR model, primarily by using 180 actual cases of public road projects, procured over the last decade. With the CBR model, it was found that the degree of error in estimation can be reasonably reduced, to below approximately 30% compared to the final costs estimated upon the completion of detailed design.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.238-244
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• 2022

Civil projects are associated with many uncertainties because they involve a long duration, many resources, a large area, and many supply chains. Therefore, the price of a civil project is not simply proportional to the quantity and unit price of the item but has a variable value, including uncertainty risk. This study investigates the influence of the uncertainty factors in the pre-bid clarification document on bid price formation during the project bidding phase. To this end, civil projects from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) were used as research data. This study randomly selected fifty sample data from each of twelve counties from 2008-to 2020: six hundred. The authors observed that each project sample had 0 to n query cases due to uncertainty. Then, this study examined the project uncertainty cases and categorized them into the following four uncertainty factors: 'conflict' (UF1), 'impossibility' (UF2), 'lack' (UF3), and 'missing' (UF4). Under the extracting process, the cases are classified into four uncertainty factors. With the project not containing any uncertainty factors as a control group, the project containing these uncertainty factors was designated as an experimental group. After comparing the bidder's price, the experimental group's bid price was higher than the control group's. This result suggests that uncertainty factors in bid documents induce bidders to set a high bid price as a defense against uncertainty.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1992년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.209-214
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• 1992

This paper presents a one cycle R&D project regarding the large inertia platform servo control system. The steps followed the rather orthodox procedure. A serial double rate-loop was closed with a position loop, and acceleration velocity anticipatory compensations were designed in the forward path. Some appropriate compensation devices were utilized for the signal processing as well as for the better control quality. Simulations and experimental tests were repeated, and satisfactory performances were observed. However, frequency domain uncertainties inherent to the large structures still remain as an expertise supported subject.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.44-51
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• 2001

To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it larks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.

• 경영과학
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.95-111
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• 2014

It is essential to carry out an economic analysis on public water supply projects so that policy makers and water enterprises are aware of the actual value of the project. However, many popular approaches based on discounted cash flow analysis do not capture the uncertainties inherent in cash flow. In order to analyze the economic values of the water supply project of local governments, we utilize real option model, which considers uncertainty in future water price behavior and captures the value of real life flexibility. The real option model is designed to incorporate the option to expand and abandon, and it is applied to a local government case. Furthermore, we assess the project by exploring Luehrman's option space to accommodate the more efficient decision making. The results show that substantial amount of potential value is included in the public water supply service, and the overall value is greater than the value obtained from the discounted cash flow model.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.721-727
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• 2022

Construction safety remains an ongoing concern, and project managers have been increasingly forced to cope with myriad uncertainties related to human operations on construction sites and the lack of a skilled workforce in hazardous circumstances. Various construction fatality monitoring systems have been widely proposed as alternatives to overcome these difficulties and to improve safety management performance. In this study, we propose an intelligent, automatic control system that can proactively protect workers using both the analysis of big data of past safety accidents, as well as the real-time detection of worker non-compliance in using personal protective equipment (PPE) on a construction site. These data are obtained using computer vision technology and data analytics, which are integrated and reinforced by lessons learned from the analysis of big data of safety accidents that occurred in the last 10 years. The system offers data-informed recommendations for high-risk workers, and proactively eliminates the possibility of safety accidents. As an illustrative case, we selected a pilot project and applied the proposed system to workers in uncontrolled environments. Decreases in workers PPE non-compliance rates, improvements in variable compliance rates, reductions in severe fatalities through guidelines that are customized according to the worker, and accelerations in safety performance achievements are expected.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.222-229
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• 2022

Although stochastic programming and feedback control approaches could efficiently mitigate the overdue risks caused by inherent uncertainties in ground conditions, the lack of formal representations of planners' rationales for resource allocation still prevents planners from applying these approaches due to the inability to consider comprehensive resource allocation policies for hard rock tunnel projects. To overcome the limitations, the authors developed an ontology that represents the project duration estimation rationales, considering the impacts of ground conditions, excavation methods, project states, resources (i.e., given equipment fleet), and resource allocation policies (RAPs). This ontology consists of 5 main classes with 22 subclasses. It enables planners to explicitly and comprehensively represent the necessary information to rapidly and consistently estimate the excavation durations during construction. 10 rule sets (i.e., policies) are considered and categorized into two types: non-progress-related and progress-related policies. In order to provide simplified information about the remaining durations of phases for progress-related policies, the ontology also represents encoding principles. The estimation of excavation schedules is carried out based on a hypothetical example considering two types of policies. The estimation results reveal the feasibility, potential for flexibility, and comprehensiveness of the developed ontology. Further research to improve the duration estimation methodology is warranted.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.84-92
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• 2007

사업비의 불확실성에 대응하고 합리적인 사업비 계획을 위해서는 정확한 견적과 함께 사업수행에 따라 사업의 실패 및 예측하지 못한 리스크 발생 가능성에 대비한 공사예비비 추정이 중요하다. 사업의 특성에 따른 불확실성을 반영하여 공사예비비를 추정한다면 사업의 주요 의사결정 시점에서 리스크에 충분히 대비할 수 있을 것이다. 따라서 합리적인 공사예비비 관리를 위해서는 세분화된 의사결정 프로세스에 대한 연구가 필요하며, 본 연구에서는 건설공사 성과분석을 통한 공사예비비 관리 프로세스 제시를 연구의 목적으로 한다. 이를 위하여 초기단계에서 공사예비비를 추정할 수 있는 프로세스를 제시한다. 또한 EVM을 활용하여 시공단계에서 공사비 변동범위를 예측하고, 그 결과를 반영하여 합리적으로 공사예비비를 운영할 수 있는 프로세스를 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.41-52
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• 2003

The flood damage reduction studies have been performed by the channel improvement plan and the levee has mainly constructed with the freeboard concept. However, the freeboard concept might be an inappropriate choice as a safety factor of the levee because many uncertainties are involved in the procedure of the channel improvement plan studies. So, we considered the uncertainties In the discharge-probability, stage-discharge, and stage-damage functions and estimate the expected annual damage. The Monte Carlo technique for uncertainty analysis is used. As our results, the expected annual damage with uncertainty shows the larger value than without uncertainty. Since the expected annual damage with uncertainty already considers the safety factor it is the proper result. However, the expected annual damage without uncertainty does not consider the safety factor yet. Thus, if the expected annual damage without uncertainty considers the freeboard concept, it could be compared with the expected annual damage with uncertainty for the evaluation of the overestimation or underestimation of the levee construction.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.421-435
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• 2022

The necessity of estimating the time and cost required for tunnel construction has led to extensive research in this regard. Since geological conditions are significant factors in terms of time and cost of road tunnels, considering these conditions is crucial. Uncertainties about the geological conditions of a tunnel alignment cause difficulties in planning ahead of the required construction time and costs. In this paper, the continuous-space, discrete-state Markov process has been used to predict geological conditions. The Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation (MCS) method is employed to estimate the construction time and costs of a road tunnel project using the input data obtained from six tunneling expert questionnaires. In the first case, the input data obtained from each expert are individually considered and in the second case, they are simultaneously considered. Finally, a comparison of these two modes based on the technique presented in this article suggests considering views of several experts simultaneously to reduce uncertainties and ensure the results obtained for geological conditions and the construction time and costs.