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Low-Flow Projection according to the Actual Evapotranspiration scenarios under the Climate Change -Chungju Dam Case- (기후변화 실제증발산 시나리오에 따른 갈수량전망 - 충주댐 사례 -)

  • Sun, HoYoung;Kang, BooSik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.104-104
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    • 2018
  • 이수안전도의 기준이 되는 갈수량에 대해 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 전망을 제시하였다. 충주 댐 유역을 대상으로 기준기간(1986~2000년)에서의 기상청의 관측 기상자료와 IPCC 보고서의 RCP 4.5/8.5 시나리오를 대상으로 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)에서 제공하는 기후변화 자료 중 5개의 모델(ACCESS1.3 CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO)의 기준기간과 미래기간(2011~2100년)의 기상자료를 수집하였다. 기후변화 자료는 정상성/비정상성 분위사상법과 베이지안 모델 평균기법을 통해 불확실성과 통계적 오차를 저감하였다. 미래기간에서, 강우는 RCP 4.5에서 1.74mm/year, RCP 8.5에서 3.22mm/year, 실제증발산은 RCP 4.5에서 1.09mm/year, RCP 8.5에서 1.78mm/year의 증가율을 보였다. 실제증발산을 입력자료로 활용할 수 있도록 IHACRES모델의 CMD(Catchment Moisture Deficit) 비선형 모듈의 매개변수를 변이하여 유효강우량 산정 과정을 개선하였다. 기준기간에서 관측유량자료와 IHACRES의 시뮬레이션을 통해 산정된 유량자료의 R-squared는 0.65이다. 기준기간에서의 매개변수를 고정하여 미래기간의 유량을 산정하고 유황분석을 통해 갈수량 전망하였다. 유량은 RCP 4.5에서 4.41MCM/year, RCP 8.5에서 9.66MCM/year의 증가율을 보였다. 갈수량은 RCP 4.5에서 0.30MCM/year, RCP 8.5에서 -0.47MCM/year의 증감율을 보였다. 연간 강수량 대비 실제증발산의 비율의 추세분석 결과, RCP 4.5에서는 홍수기에는 0.014%/year, 비홍수기에는 0.027%/year의 증가율을 보이며 거의 변화가 없는 추세를 확인할 수 있었다. RCP 8.5의 홍수기에는 -0.042%/year, 비홍수기에서는 0.167%/year의 증감율을 보이며 홍수기에는 실제증발산에 비해 강수량의 증가가 확연히 보였으며 비홍수기에는 강수량에 비해 실제증발산의 증가가 뚜렷이 확인되었다. RCP 8.5에서 비홍수기의 강수량 대비 실제증발산의 증가가 갈수량의 감소로 반영된 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 미래기간의 RCP 4.5/8.5에서 실제증발산의 증가로 인하여 강수량이 증가함에 따라 유입량이 증가함에도 불구하고 갈수량의 증가로 이어지지 않았다. 미래 갈수량의 감소는 하천의 건전성과 이수안전도의 위협이 될 수 있다.

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Assessing Future Water Demand for Irrigating Paddy Rice under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Scenario Using the APEX-Paddy Model (APEX-paddy 모델을 활용한 SSPs 시나리오에 따른 논 필요수량 변동 평가)

  • Choi, Soon-Kun;Cho, Jaepil;Jeong, Jaehak;Kim, Min-Kyeong;Yeob, So-Jin;Jo, Sera;Owusu Danquah, Eric;Bang, Jeong Hwan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.6
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2021
  • Global warming due to climate change is expected to significantly affect the hydrological cycle of agriculture. Therefore, in order to predict the magnitude of climate impact on agricultural water resources in the future, it is necessary to estimate the water demand for irrigation as the climate change. This study aimed at evaluating the future changes in water demand for irrigation under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios for paddy rice in Gimje, South Korea. The APEX-Paddy model developed for the simulation of paddy environment was used. The model was calibrated and validated using the H2O flux observation data by the eddy covariance system installed at the field. Sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) collected from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and downscaled using Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) were used. The future climate data obtained were subjected to APEX-Paddy model simulation to evaluate the future water demand for irrigation at the paddy field. Changes in water demand for irrigation were evaluated for Near-future-NF (2011-2040), Mid-future-MF (2041-2070), and Far-future-FF (2071-2100) by comparing with historical data (1981-2010). The result revealed that, water demand for irrigation would increase by 2.3%, 4.8%, and 7.5% for NF, MF and FF respectively under SSP2-4.5 as compared to the historical demand. Under SSP5-8.5, the water demand for irrigation will worsen by 1.6%, 5.7%, 9.7%, for NF, MF and FF respectively. The increasing water demand for irrigating paddy field into the future is due to increasing evapotranspiration resulting from rising daily mean temperatures and solar radiation under the changing climate.

A Numerical Study on the Step 0 Benchmark Test in Task C of DECOVALEX-2023: Simulation for Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Coupled Behavior by Using OGS-FLAC (DECOVALEX-2023 Task C 내 Step 0 벤치마크 수치해석 연구: OGS-FLAC을 활용한 열-수리-역학 복합거동 수치해석)

  • Kim, Taehyun;Park, Chan-Hee;Lee, Changsoo;Kim, Jin-Seop
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.610-622
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    • 2021
  • The DECOVALEX project is one of the representative international cooperative projects to enhance the understanding of the complex Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical(THMC) coupled behavior in the high-level radioactive waste disposal system based on the numerical simulation. DECOVALEX-2023 is the current phase consisting of 7 tasks, and Task C aims to model the THM coupled behavior in the disposal system based on the Full-scale Emplacement (FE) experiment at the Mont-Terri underground rock laboratory. This study performs the numerical simulation based on the OGS-FLAC developed for the current study. In the numerical model, we emplaced the heater with constant power horizontally based on the FE experiment and monitored the pressure development, temperature increase, and mechanical deformation at the specific monitoring points. We monitored the capillary pressure as the primary effect inducing the flow in the buffer system, and thermal stress and pressurization were dominant in the surrounding rocks' area. The results will also be compared and validated with the other participating groups and the experimental data further.

A Study on Derivation of Public Conflict Management Countermeasure in the Port Sector (항만분야 공공갈등 관리방안 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Ga-Hyun Kim;Se-Won Kim;Hye-Ryeong Lee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.246-255
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    • 2023
  • Public conflicts in the port sector can cause additional social costs and delay the supply of port infrastructure, which can negatively affect local industries and national competitiveness. Although the importance of conflict management in the port sector is gradually increasing, there is still no systematic conflict management countermeasure. Therefore, in this study, the limitations of the current conflict management system in the port sector were considered, and a Delphi survey was conducted targeting experts and stakeholders in the port sector and conflict management. In addition, criteria for diagnosing conflicts in the port sector, causes of conflicts, proactive management measures, and ex post solutions were derived. The results of the Delphi survey analysis showed that the biggest causes of conflict were the absence of stakeholder opinion collection, consultation, and communication tools. Preliminary conflict management measures including a public deliberation process to collect local opinions and discuss development directions before deciding on specific issues, and ex post conflict resolution measures including investigation of causes of conflicts and objective personnel management in the process of preparing alternatives (e.g., securing reliability) were determined as the most important factors. In addition, based on the results obtained in this study, conflict management techniques for each phase of the port development project were presented. These findings are expected to be used as a useful reference material to reflect the port sector, which has not been included in the "Public Institution Conflict Management Manual (2016)" of the Office for Government Policy Coordination.

Experimental assessment of thermal radiation effects on containment atmospheres with varying steam content

  • R. Kapulla;S. Paranjape;U. Doll;E. Kirkby;D. Paladino
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.4348-4358
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    • 2022
  • The thermal-hydraulics phenomena in a containment during an accident will necessarily include radiative heat transfer (i) within the gas mixture due to the high radiative absorption and emission of steam and (ii) between the gas mixture and the surrounding structures. The analysis of some previous PANDA experiments (PSI, Switzerland) demonstrated the importance of the proper modelling of radiation for the benefit of numerical simulations. These results together with dedicated scoping calculations conducted for the present experiments indicated that the radiative heat transfer is considerable, even for a very low amount of steam (≈2%). The H2P2 series conducted in the large-scale PANDA facility at the Paul-Scherrer-Institut (PSI) in the framework of the OECD/NEA HYMERES-2 project is intended to enhance the understanding of thermal radiation phenomena and to provide a benchmark for corresponding numerical simulations. Thus, the test matrix was tailored around the two opposite extremes: either gas compositions with small steam content such that radiative heat transfer phenomena can be neglected. Or gas mixtures containing larger amounts of steam, so that radiative heat transfer is expected to play a dominant role. The H2P2 series consists of 5 experiments designed to isolate the radiation phenomena from convective and diffusive effects as much as possible. One vessel with a diameter of 4 m and a height of 8 m was preconditioned with different mixtures of air / steam at room and elevated temperatures. This was followed by the build-up of a stable helium stratification at constant pressure in the upper part of the vessel. After that, helium was injected from the top into the vessel which leads to an increase of the vessel pressure and a corresponding elevation-dependent and transient rise of the gas temperature. It is shown that even the addition of small amounts of steam in the initial gas atmosphere considerably impacts the radiative heat transport throughout all phases of the experiments and markedly influences i) the monitored gas peak temperature, ii) the temperature history during the compression and iii) the following relaxation phase after the compression was stopped. These PANDA experiments are the first of its kind conducted in a large scale thermal-hydraulic facility.

Categorization of UX method based on UX expert's competence model (UX 전문가의 역량 모델에 기반한 수행역량유사도에 따른 UX 방법론 분류에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Ahreum;Kang, Hyo Jin;Kwon, Gyu Hyun
    • Design Convergence Study
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2017
  • As the local manufacturing industry has entered a phase of stagnation, service and product design based on user experience has been highlighted as an alternative for the innovation. However, SMEs(Small and Medium-sized Enterprises) are still struggling to overcome the current crisis. One of the reasons is that SMEs do not have enough contact points with the validated UX firms and experts. Thus, SMEs has a high barrier to invest in new opportunity area, user experience. In this study, we aim to figure out UX experts' competence to perform the UX method to solve the UX problems based on the KSA framework(Knowledge, Skill, Attitude). Based on the literature review and expert workshop, we grouped the UX method according to the similarity of the competence required to conduct the method. With cluster analysis, 5 different groups of UX method were defined based on the competence, Panoramic Analysis, Meticulous Observation and Analysis, Intuitive Interpretation, Agile Visualization, and Logical Inspection. The results would be applied to compose a portfolio of UX experts and to implement a mechanism that could recommend the professional experts to the company.

Improving the Design-phased VE Process of Public Clients in Relation to Using Critical Success Factors (핵심성공요인과 연계한 공공발주기관의 설계VE 프로세스 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Heedae;Han, Seung Heon;Kim, Sung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.3D
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    • pp.399-408
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    • 2009
  • The major changes in construction environment are that construction project is bigger and more complicated and the power of construction market changes from the supplier to the client or the user. Especially public construction enterprises have advanced to introduce the value engineering (VE) which is one of the cost management based on the owner's leading at the design phase for economical efficiency and quality improvement. According to the these efforts, the implementation of VE was legislated in the revised Construction Technology Management Act in 2000, governmental agencies, local autonomies, and construction public enterprises universally has taken the VE into consideration. In this circumstance, the scope that VE construction applied at 50 billion won projects from 2003 has been extended to 10 billion won projects in 2006. Therefore, the VE construction will be activated in the future. The cost savings and function improvement, which are the purpose of VE are not only construction public enterprises, but also every public client supported from government's budget or owned by the government. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose the improved process and performance index of VE for governmental agencies, local autonomies, and construction public enterprises which want to introduce or improve the VE process. This research also suggested the To-be design-phased VE process model. In addition, it suggested the To-be model of design management reflected the To-be design-phased VE process model, which is eliminated two problems reflected for the performance improvement of the As-is model of design management.

Studies on Development Policies for Regional Industry (지역산업 육성정책에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Dong-Soo;Lee, Doo-Hee;Kim, Kye-Hwan
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.467-485
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    • 2011
  • After Korean War, Korea focused on catching up with the world economy by concentrating on some target industries around the Capital Region and southern coastal cities. Thus, the regional disparity between Capital Region and non-Capital Regions increased drastically. At last, when Korea acquired full-fledged autonomy in 1994 in the Civilian government (1993-1998) and experienced the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, local governments were awakened to the notion of region-oriented development, especially for regional industrial development. The purposes of this paper are to introduce regional industrial development policies since 1998 and to suggest some recommendations in terms of how to adjust regional development for industrial policies in the future. In the introducing phase (Kim administration, 1998-2003), four provincial governments requested national funding to raise regional industries that are of strategic importance. At the same time, the central government recognized the need to nurture regional industries to overcome structural weaknesses. As a result, the Roh administration (2003-2008) gave a birth to a systematizing phase. As the ultimate regional policy objective, the balanced national development has been set and the Special Acts, Special Accounts, Committee, and National Plan have been established. Regional Industrial Promotion Project has been carried out very actively during this period. It had a good start albeit idealistic to a certain extent. Therefore, the current government has changed policy paradigm from balanced growth to regional competitiveness along with global paradigm shifts. In order to enhance regional competitiveness, regional development policies have been pursued in more efficient way. Leading Industry Nurturing Projects (LINPs) on Economic Region level, existed Regional Industrial Promotion Projects (RIPPs) on Province level, and Region Specific Industry Projects (RSIPs) on Local Area level have been implemented. Now, it is appropriate to review regional development policies including industrial policies since 1998 and to adjust them for the future sustainable regional development. Because LINPs and RIPPs will be terminated in next two years, the 2nd stage projects are on planning to reduce the redundancies in two projects. In addition, business support program would be reformed from subsiding technology development to building ecological business system. Finally some policy implications are provided in this paper, which is useful to establish the new regional industrial policies for both central and local government.

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Sputum Smear Conversion During mDOT (Modified Directly Observed Treatment) (변형된 복약확인 치료(mDOT) 수행 후의 균음전율에 대한 연구 부제: 보건소 균양성 폐결핵 환자를 대상으로)

  • Hwang, Taik Gun;Kim, Soon Deok;Yoo, Se Hwa;Shin, Yoo Chul
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.485-494
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    • 2004
  • Background : To assess the effects of mDOT implementation on sputum smear conversion for AFB (Acid fast bacilli) positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients, modified Directly Observed Treatment (mDOT) was started on October $8^{th}$ 2001 at a health center in Seoul. mDOT was defined through weekly interviewing and supervising of a patient by a supervisor (doctor, nurse, or lay health worker). The sputum smear conversion of a mDOT group was compared with that of a self-medication (self) group. Methods : This study included 52 AFB positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients registered at a health center in Seoul between October $8^{th}$ 2001 and April $23^{rd}$ 2002. 24 and 28 patients were enrolled in the mDOT and self medication groups, respectively. Paired (1:1) individual matching, by gender, extent of disease, relapse and age-matching variables, was performed between the two groups, resulting in 20 paired matches. This prospective study was planned as an unblinded, non-randomized quasiexperimental pilot project. Outcomes were identified from results of sputum smear examinations for AFB in both groups at 2 weeks, and 1 and 2 months. The paired matching data were analyzed using the SAS program version 8.1 by McNemar test. Results : At the end of 2 weeks of treatment, the sputum smear conversion of the mDOT group was somewhat higher than that of the self medication group (78.57 vs. 50%, p-value=0.289), and after 1 month of treatment no statistically significant difference was shown between the two groups (83.33 vs. 50, p-value=0.125). At the end of 2 months of treatment (initial intensive phase), the sputum smear conversions of the mDOT and self groups were 95 and 75%, respectively (p-value=0.219). Conclusions : The implementation of mDOT did not result in clinically significant increases in the sputum smear conversion at 2 weeks, and 1 and 2 months compared with that of the self medication group. However, the increases experienced might contribute to diminishing the infectious period of AFB positive patients, and this approach may act as a guide for a specific group of patients. In this study, mDOT was performed for one hundred percent of the intensive treatment phase. It can also be an effective treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis patients, and may be useful for some high risk tuberculosis patients.

A Protection Management Characteristic and Preservation Plan of World Heritage Mt. Huangshan (세계유산 황산의 보호관리 특성 및 보전방안)

  • Shin, Hyun-Sil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.120-128
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to establish basic data for the continuous protection management policy of domestic natural world heritage and mixed world heritage, and to examine the present situation and characteristics of the protection management according to the World Heritage Convention on the World Heritage listed Huangshan. The results of this study are as follows. First, Huangshan began to be protected by the establishment of the Huangshan Construction Committee in 1933, and after the designation of national park in 1982, laws and regulations were established in the central ministries, And various projects related to utilization have been implemented. Secondly, the establishment of the boundary for protection was actively intervened by the central government, such as the reorganization of the boundary of Huangshan through the administrative district plan. In order to protect the ecological and landscape value as well as the cultural factor, And designated a heritage designated area. Third, the protection management of Huangshan was divided into four major stages. The first phase was divided into the period when administrative measures were taken to manage the protection of Huangshan. The second phase was designated as a national park in Huangshan. The third period was the time of the protection-oriented project according to the recommendation of the international organizations after the World Heritage listed. The fourth period was the expansion of the tourism industry for the continuous use of protection of Huangshan city, My preservation business was being implemented. Fourth, Huangshan is managed by the central government and the city government. Huangshan, which is a mixed heritage, is managed jointly by the Ministry of Cultural Heritage Administration and the Ministry of Natural Heritage Administration. The protection and management of Huangshan promoted the efficiency and expertise of the heritage-related work through the establishment of the administrative unit-specific management system, and the local governments were entrusted with the authority to implement the protection management policies that meet local characteristics. Fifth, the preservation area of Huangshan has been destroyed by the development policy centered on the mountain. In addition, according to the operation of accommodation facilities, there are problems such as sewage, garbage disposal, and environmental pollution caused by tourists, and the damage caused by pests and diseases in planted plantations around the area and changes in ecosystem due to the composition of cable cars. Sixth, for the continuous protection of Huangshan, strict regulations on new construction, extension and management of accommodation are required, and it is necessary to install facilities to limit and control the number of visitors.