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A comparison analysis on probable precipitation considering extreme rainfall in Seoul (서울시 폭우특성을 고려한 근미래 확률강우량 산정 및 비교평가)

  • Yoon, Sun Kwon;Choi, Hyeon Seok;Lee, Tae Sam;Jeong, Min Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.17-17
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    • 2019
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 기후변화 전망보고서에 따르면 RCP 4.5 시나리오 기준, 21세기 전 지구 평균기온은 $2.5^{\circ}C$ 상승(한반도 $+3.0^{\circ}C$)하며, 전 지구 평균강수량은 4.1% 증가(한반도 +16.0%)할 것이라 전망하고 있다(기상청, 2012). 최근 기후변화와 기상이변에 따른 도심지 폭우특성이 변화하고 있음을 많은 연구결과에서 말해주고 있으며, 그 발생 빈도와 강도가 점차 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 특히, 서울시의 경우 인구와 재산이 밀집해 있어 폭우 발생에 의한 시민의 인명과 재산 피해 우려가 크다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울시를 대상으로 근미래(~2050년) 기후변화 하에서의 재현기간에 따른 확률강우량 변화 특성을 분석하여 비교 평가한 후 설계 강우량 산정에 활용하고자 하였다. 관측자료 기반 강수량의 변동 특성 분석과 Non-stationary GEV방법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석을 수행하였으며, 근미래 폭우특성 변화분석을 위하여 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5)에 참여한 GCMs(General Circulation Models)을 활용한 강우빈도해석을 수행하였다. Mann-Kendall Test와 Quantile Regression을 통한 서울지점 여름철 강수량(June to September)과 기준강수량 초과 강수(30, 50, 80, 100mm/hr), 연간 10th 최대 강수량(Annual Top 10th Precipitation) 등을 분석한 결과 최근 증가 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 비정상성 빈도해석에 의한 확률강우량 분석의 가능성과 신뢰성을 확인하였다. 또한 19-GCMs을 통하여 모의된 일(Daily) 단위 강수량자료를 비모수통계적 상세화(Nonparametric Temporal Downscaling) 기법을 적용하여 시간(Hourly) 강우로 다운스케일링하였으며, 서울시 미래 확률강우량에 대한 IDF 곡선(Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve)을 작성하여 비교?분석한 결과 지속시간 1시간 강우에 대하여 재현기간 30년, 100년 조건에서 확률강우량이 약 4%~11% 수준에서 증가하고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 도심지 수공구조물의 설계빈도 영향을 진단하고, 근미래 발생가능한 확률강우량 변화에 따른 시간당 목표 강우량설정의 방법론을 제시하였다는데 의의가 있으며, 서울시의 방재성능목표 설정과 침수취약지역 해소를 위한 기후변화에 따른 수공구조물 설계 시 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

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Analysis of Flood Control Capacity of Agricultural Reservoir Based on SSP Climate Change Scenario (SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석)

  • Kim, Jihye;Kwak, Jihye;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang Min;Lee, Sunghack;Lee, Jae Nam;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.5
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario - SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario provided by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfall-runoff module, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximum outflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs, design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value, cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data (1973~2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1~1,359.7 mm in the future (2011~2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirs corresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstream due to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, which means inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.

Estimating System for Responsible Days of Schedule Delay for Construction Projects through Time Impact Analysis (건설공사 공기지연 영향분석을 통한 책임일수 산정체계 구축방안)

  • Kang, Leen-Seok;Kwon, Jung-Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5D
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    • pp.685-694
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    • 2008
  • Recently, construction projects are being gradually changed to large projects with complicated work processes. As a result, claims are increasing as well. Of these, the claims by delayed construction duration are given much weight in the general construction claims. To solve this problem, researches to estimate damages due to delay are carried out in research institutes by analyzing the causes of schedule delay. A system to easily estimate responsible days by analyzing the complicated processes needs for project manager. This study suggests a methodology based on the time impact analysis method, which can utilize the consequential analytical method with the consideration of reduced construction period. The suggested methodology is verified by comparing with actual data of case study by the computerized system for estimating the responsible days.

Effect of Immersion Solution Composition and Duration on the Re-moisturization of Dried Flying Fish Cypselurus agoo Roe (날치(Cypselurus agoo) 건조 어란의 수분함량 복원을 위한 침지액의 효과)

  • Seul-Ki Park;Yeon-Ju Sim;Jeong-Bin Jo;Kyung-Jin Cho;Du-Min Jo;So-Yeon Noh;Ye-Bin Jang;Mi-Ru Song;Young-Mog Kim
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.347-351
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    • 2023
  • Flying fish Cypselurus agoo roe is a popular food ingredient due to its abundant nutrition, unique texture, and flavor. It contains high levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids, protein, and minerals such as calcium, phosphorus, potassium, and vitamins (A, B1, B2, B6, and niacin), making it a highly utilized food ingredient. Additionally, it is widely used as a raw material for food and cooking in several countries. After harvesting, flying fish roe is dried and transported to processing plants, where it performed a re-moisturizing process. However, the conventional re-moisturizing process is time-consuming and results in some loss of quality. Thus, this study investigates the conditions required for the re-moisturization of flying fish roe including the composition of the immersion solution, immersion time, and conditions that could minimize damage to the roe. The results suggest a reasonable composition of immersion solution to minimize damage to flying fish roe and the most appropriate immersion time for re-moisturization. These results may provide valuable insights for the industry to enhance the quality of re-moisturized flying fish roe, leading to an increase in its market value and demand.

Methodology for Developing Standard Schedule Activities for Nuclear Power Plant Construction through Probabilistic Coherence Analysis

  • kim, Woojoong
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2017.10a
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 2017
  • Nuclear power plant (NPP) constructions are large scale projects that are executed for several years, and schedule control utilizing various schedules is a critically important factor. Recently Korea independently developed the Advanced Power Reactor (APR) 1400 and is building nuclear facilities applying this new reactor type. The construction of Shin-Kori NPP (SKN) Unit 3, which adopted the APR1400, was completed and commercial operation has begun, while, SKN 4, Shin-Hanul NPP (SHN) Units 1&2, and SKN 5&6 are currently under construction. Prior to the development of the APR1400, Korea built 24 reactors and accumulated the schedule data of various reactor types which provided the foundation for schedule reduction to be possible. However, as there is no schedule development and review system established based on the standard schedule data (standard activities, durations, etc.) by reactor type, the process for developing the schedule for new builds is low in efficiency consuming much time and manpower. Also all construction data has been accumulated based on schedule activities. But because the connectivity of activities between projects is low, it is difficult to utilize such accumulated data (causes for schedule delay, causes for design changes, etc.) in new build projects. Due to such reasons, issues continue to arise in the process of developing standard schedule activities and a standard schedule for nuclear power plant construction. In order to develop a standard schedule for NPP construction, i) the development of an NPP standard schedule activity list, ii) development of the connection logic of NPP standard schedule activities, iii) development of NPP standard schedule activity resources and duration, and iv) integration of schedule data need to be performed. In this paper, an analysis was made on the coherence of schedule activity descriptions of existing NPPs by applying the probabilistic methodology on activities with low connectivity due to the utilization of the numbering system of four APR1400 reactors (SHN 1&2 and SKN 3&4).This study also describes the method for developing a standard schedule activity list and connectivity measures by extracting same and/or similar schedule activities.

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Drivers for Technology Transfer of Government-funded Research Institute: Focusing on Food Research and Development Projects (정부출연연구기관 식품연구개발사업의 기술이전 성과동인 분석)

  • Mirim Jeong;Seungwoon Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 2023
  • In this study, project information of government-funded research institute in the food field was collected and analyzed to systematically identify the factors affecting the process of transferring technological achievements of public research institute to the private sector. This study hypothesized that human resources, financial resources, and technological characteristics as input factors of R&D projects affect output factors, such as research papers or patents produced by R&D projects. Moreover, these outputs would serve as drivers of the technology transfer as one of the R&D outcomes. Linear Regression Analysis and Poisson Regression Analysis were conducted to empirically and sequentially investigate the relationship between input factors and output and outcome of R&D projects and the results are as follows: First, the principle investigator's career and participating researcher's size as human resource factors have an influence on both the number of SCI (science citation index) papers and patent registration. Second, the research duration and research expenses for the current year have an influence on the number of SCI papers and patent registrations, which are the main outputs of R&D projects. Third, the technology life cycle affects the number of SCI papers and patent registrations. Lastly, the higher the number of SCI papers and patent registrations, the more it affected the number of technology transfers and the amount of technology transfer contract.

Impacts assessment of Climate changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios II. Impacts assessment of hydrologic cycle changes in Yalu River (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 II. 압록강유역의 미래 수문순환 변화 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to assess the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle at a basin level in North Korea. The selected model for this study is MRI-CGCM 3, the one used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, this study adopted the Spatial Disaggregation-Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), which is one of the stochastic downscaling techniques, to conduct the bias correction for climate change scenarios. The comparison between the preapplication and postapplication of the SDQDM supported the study's review on the technique's validity. In addition, as this study determined the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle, it also observed the runoff in North Korea. In predicting such influence, parameters of a runoff model used for the analysis should be optimized. However, North Korea is classified as an ungauged region for its political characteristics, and it was difficult to collect the country's runoff observation data. Hence, the study selected 16 basins with secured high-quality runoff data, and the M-RAT model's optimized parameters were calculated. The study also analyzed the correlation among variables for basin characteristics to consider multicollinearity. Then, based on a phased regression analysis, the study developed an equation to calculate parameters for ungauged basin areas. To verify the equation, the study assumed the Osipcheon River, Namdaecheon Stream, Yongdang Reservoir, and Yonggang Stream as ungauged basin areas and conducted cross-validation. As a result, for all the four basin areas, high efficiency was confirmed with the efficiency coefficients of 0.8 or higher. The study used climate change scenarios and parameters of the estimated runoff model to assess the changes in hydrological cycle processes at a basin level from climate change in the Amnokgang River of North Korea. The results showed that climate change would lead to an increase in precipitation, and the corresponding rise in temperature is predicted to cause elevating evapotranspiration. However, it was found that the storage capacity in the basin decreased. The result of the analysis on flow duration indicated a decrease in flow on the 95th day; an increase in the drought flow during the periods of Future 1 and Future 2; and an increase in both flows for the period of Future 3.

A Study on the Influence of Youth Startup Support Project in Gangwon-do Province on Startup Performance (강원도 청년창업 지원사업이 창업성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Jiwon;Park, Woojin;Bae, Byung Yun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • As youth employment has become a social issue every year, the government is pushing for policies to support youth start-ups to create jobs voluntarily as a way to enhance the youth employment rate. In the case of young people in Gangwon Province, the number of people moving to other regions is increasing. This research is intended to empirically analyze the actual achievements of youth start-ups through the 'Youth Start-up Project' in Gangwon-do. It was divided into four categories: participation in government support, education completion, intellectual property right retention, and certification retention, which are characteristics of start-up companies, and hypotheses that they will have a positive impact on start-up performance (sales amount, duration of existence, or whether they are retained or not). Age and geographical factors (Yeongdong and Yeongseo) were injected as control variables to see how they affect them. Furthermore, empirical analysis was conducted by setting up a hypothesis that the characteristics of start-up companies and subsequent support between start-up performance would have a positive intermediary effect. The research results showed that the remaining characteristics, except for education completion, had a positive impact on sales, and that the more participation in government projects, the longer the duration of the company's existence. In addition, the level of participation in government support projects was significant in the direction of the government. The analysis results of the parameter, follow-up support, had a positive impact on the start-up performance, and the subsequent support mediating effect showed the mediating effect of the start-up performance, except for geographical factors. The results of this study suggest the need for customized support suitable for the characteristics of youth start-ups in order to enhance the performance of young start-ups. Support agencies need to refer to corporate characteristics for smooth management and selection. In the Gangwon-do area, the government should seek to provide timely and organic support for start-up companies in order to produce successful start-up cases.

A Case Study on High and Low Performance Areas for Family Planning (가족계획 우수.부진지역 사례연구)

  • 홍성열;김태일
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.105-130
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    • 1981
  • This study was conducted to compare the characteristics of high performane areas for family planning with that of low performance areas and to find factors which strongly affected contraceptive practice behavior. For the study, eight areas were selected from 274 rural family planning canvassing areas of Korean Population Policy and Program Evaluation Study, which was an action study operated in all areas of Cheju Island from July 1, 1976 until December 31,1979. As a first step of the action study, Cheju Island was devided up 318 family planning canvasser areas Each area was consisted of 200 households in rural district and 300 households in urhan one Duriog the period of project, each canvassing area had been managed by a female family planning canvasser, selected by director of health center considering several individual conditions needed for family planning activities Basic activities of canvassers were to counsell all the eligihie couples in own charged area about family planning methods and also to distribute contraceptives such as condoms and oral pills. In case couples desire to accept sterilization including vasectomy and tubal-ligation, the canvassers played a linking role connecting potential client with family planning field workers. Canvassng areas shows significant differentce in performance for family planning, nevertheless they are supposed to have almost the same conditions regarding family planning distribution channel. Because the purpose of the Cheju project was to eliminate all the problems that existed in governmental distribution system, that is to remove geographic, economic, cognitive and administrative barriers Accumulated performances of family planning methods accepted by residents in each area were calculated by eligible women aged 14-49. And then canvassing areas were ranked according to performance score. Consequently, 4 areas in extremely high and low family planning performance areas were selected respectively. Major results were obtained by comparing characteristics of high performance area with that of low performance areas, which are as follows: 1. The mean number of living children was about the same both in high and low performance areas for family planning. But respondents' mean age (38.5) in high performance areas was higher than that (37.0) in low performance areas 2. Respondents' perception in the expectant educational level of others' children in high performance areas was higher than that in low performance areas, although respondents educational level, monthly expenditure and ratio of children in high school and above was not different. 3. Ratio of ownerships of TV and newspaper in high performance areas was highen than that in low performance areas 4. The duration of canvasser' charge in high performance areas was longer than that of low performance areas, showing the fact that canvassers didn't move cut in high performance areas 5. In high performance areas, canvassers' houses were relatively located in the center part of the village. And so villagers resided in near distances from the anvasser's house 6. 4H clubs' activities in high performance areas were more active than those in low performance areas Therefore it was assumed that cohesiveness of community in high performance areas were stronger than that in low areas. 7. Canvassers' family planning practice rate was higher than that in low performance areas, and also canvassers' human relationship was more sociable than that of canvassers in low performance areas. 8. Fourteen variables which showed relatively high significance level in $X^2$ and F test were selected as independent variables for stepwise regression analysis. According to the results of regression analysis. five of 14 variables-distributors education level ($R^2$=.4439), duration of distributor's charge ($R^2$=.6166), 4H club activities ($R^2$=.6697), canvasser's contraceptive practice ($R^2$=.7377) and location of distributions house ($R^2$=.8010) explained 80.1 percent of total variance.

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Projecting future hydrological and ecological droughts with the climate and land use scenarios over the Korean peninsula (기후 및 토지이용 변화 시나리오 기반 한반도 미래 수문학적 및 생태학적 가뭄 전망)

  • Lee, Jaehyeong;Kim, Yeonjoo;Chae, Yeora
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2020
  • It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.