DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Analysis of Flood Control Capacity of Agricultural Reservoir Based on SSP Climate Change Scenario

SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석

  • Kim, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kwak, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soonho (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Sunghack (Convergence Center for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jae Nam (Water Resources & Environment Research Group, Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institutes of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2021.09.03
  • Accepted : 2021.09.13
  • Published : 2021.09.30

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario - SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario provided by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfall-runoff module, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximum outflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs, design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value, cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data (1973~2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1~1,359.7 mm in the future (2011~2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirs corresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstream due to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, which means inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 결과물은 농림축산식품부의 재원으로 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업기반 및 재해대응기술개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었음 (320046-5).

References

  1. Cho, J. P., 2013. Impact assessment of climate change for agricultural reservoirs considering uncertainty. Research Report 2013-05. APEC Climate Center (in Korean).
  2. Garijo, C., and L. Mediero, 2018. Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain. Acta Geophysica 66(4): 769-790. doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0143-0.
  3. Hwang, S., J. Cho, and K. S. Yoon, 2018. Assessing the skills of CMIP5 GCMs in reproducing spatial climatology of precipitation over the coastal area in East Asia. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 51(8): 629-642 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.8.629.
  4. Hwang, S. H., 2012. Impacts of reservoir dam heightening on downstream flood alleviation. Master diss., Seoul National University (in Korean).
  5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
  6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
  7. Jun, S. M., M. S. Kang, I. Song, S. H. Hwang, K. Kim, and J. Park, 2013. Effects of agricultural reservoir rehabilitation on their flood control capacities. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 55(6): 57-68 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.6.057.
  8. Jun, S. M., S. Hwang, J. Kim, J. Kwak, K. Kim, H. J. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2020. Future inundation risk evaluation of farmland in the Moohan stream watershed based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs. Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 62(6): 131-142 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.6.131.
  9. Jung, I., H. I. Eum, E. J. Lee, J. Park, and J. Cho, 2018. Development of representative GCMs selection technique for uncertainty in climate change scenario. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 60(5): 149-162 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2018.60.5.149.
  10. Kim, J., J. Park, J. H. Song, S. M. Jun, and M. S. Kang, 2016. Design flood estimation in the Hwangguji river watershed under climate and land use changes scenario. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 58(1): 39-51 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2016.58.1.039.
  11. Kim, J. H., J. H. Gwak, S. M. Jeon, S. H. Lee, J. N. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2021. Development of linkage methods for flood and inundation simulation of agricultural hydraulic structures. Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 63(2): 44-56 (in Korean).
  12. Korea Rural Community Corporation, 2020. Implementation of flood capacity expansion project in small and medium-sized reservoirs (Press Release). Released 19 Jan. 2020 (in Korean).
  13. Korea Water Resources Association and Korea River Association, 2019. Explanation of national river design criteria (in Korean).
  14. Kwak, J., J. Kim, S. M. Jun, S. Hwang, S. Lee, J. N. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2020. Assessment of future flood according to climate change, rainfall distribution and CN. Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 62(6): 85-95 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.6.085.
  15. Ministry of Construction and Transportation, 2004. Renewable report of PMP map in Korea (in Korean).
  16. Ministry of Environment, 2019. Standard guidelines for flood estimation (in Korean).
  17. Ministry of Environment, 2020. Master plan of national water management I (in Korean).
  18. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, 2009. Analysis of the trend of extreme flood events (in Korean).
  19. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, 2011. Improvement and supplement of probability rainfall in South Korea (in Korean).
  20. Miotto, F., P. Claps, F. Laio, and D. Poggi, 2007. An analytical index for flood attenuation due to reservoirs. In 32nd Congress of IAHR, Venice, Italy.
  21. Montaldo, N., M. Mancini, and R. Rosso, 2004. Flood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall-runoff model. Hydrological processes 18(3): 545-563. doi:10.1002/hyp.1337.
  22. O'Neill, B. C., C. Tebaldi, D. P. V. Vuuren, V. Eyring, P. Friedlingstein, G. Hurtt, and B. M. Sanderson, 2016. The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 9(9): 3461-3482. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.
  23. Park, J., 2016. Reliability-based flood risk assessment methodology and its application to climate change for agricultural reservoirs. Ph.D. diss., Seoul National University (in Korean).
  24. Riahi, K., D. P. van Vuuren, E. Kriegler, J. Edmonds, B. C. O'neill, S. Fujimori, and M. Tavoni, 2017. The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global environmental change 42: 153-168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
  25. Shim, M. P., O. I. Kwon, and K. T. Kim, 1998. Flood control effects of Hwacheon dam in connection with Peace dam 1; A review of flood control capacity of Hwacheon dam. Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers 18(2-2): 163-172 (in Korean).
  26. Shrestha, S., and W. Lohpaisankrit, 2017. Flood hazard assessment under climate change scenarios in the Yang River Basin, Thailand. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 6(2): 285-298. doi:10.1016/j.ijsbe.2016.09.006.
  27. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1998. HEC-5 simulation of flood control and conservation systems - User's manual, version 8.0.
  28. Volpi, E., M. Di Lazzaro, M. Bertola, A. Viglione, and A. Fiori, 2018. Reservoir effects on flood peak discharge at the catchment scale. Water Resources Research 54(11): 9623-9636. doi:10.1029/2018WR023866.
  29. Zhang, X., L. Alexander, G. C. Hegerl, P. Jones, A. K. Tank, T. C. Peterson, B. Trewin, and F. W. Zwiers, 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2(6): 851-870. doi:10.1002/wcc.147.