• 대한간호학회지
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.429-438
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• 2015

Purpose: This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Methods: This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0. Results: We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit. Conclusion: KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.50-59
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• 2015

한국 건설 기업들의 해외 진출이 기하급수적으로 늘어나고 있지만 프로젝트를 수행함에 있어 사업의 수익률은 대기업과 경험이 부족한 중소기업을 비교하였을 때 큰 차이가 나타난다(대기업 5건 중 1건 적자, 중소기업 3건 중 1건 적자 공사). 또한 경험이 부족한 중소, 중견 기업들, 특히 하도급 업체에게는 프로젝트 참여시 사업의 적절성을 판단하기란 어려우며 그에 따른 수익률 또한 예측하기 어렵다. 이에 본 연구는 중소/중견 업체, 특히 하도급 업체 관점에서 해외 건설공사 진출 시 수익률에 영향을 미치는 영향인자를 도출하기 위해 1965년부터 시행된 8,637건의 해외건설 준공데이터 및 문헌고찰 기반으로 수익률에 영향을 미치는 10개 인자를 도출 후 다중회귀분석을 통해 영향인자 간 가중치를 도출하였다. 이를 기반으로 사례기반 추론 기법을 이용하여 수익률 예측 모델을 개발하였으며, Type1 &Type2 error 분석을 통해 검증 결과 11%의 오차율을 보였다. 이러한 수익성 예측 모델을 활용하여 국내 건설 하도급업체들은 해외건설공사 진출 시 해당 프로젝트의 수익성 분포를 사전에 확인하여 양질의 프로젝트를 선별하고, 사업 참여의 의사결정에 중요한 참고자료가 될 것을 기대한다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.2431-2449
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• 2024

As problems such as water pollution and fish species depletion have become serious, a land-based fish farming is receiving a great attention for ensuring stable productivity. In the fish farming, it is important to determine the timing of shipments, as one of key factors to increase net profit on the aquaculture. In this paper, we propose a system for predicting net profit to support decision of timing of shipment using fish farming-related statistical data. The prediction system consists of growth and farm-gate price prediction models, a cost statistics table, and a net profit estimation algorithm. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) model is exploited for weight prediction based on the analysis that represents the characteristics of the weight data of cultured fish under the assumption of Gaussian probability processes. Moreover, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model is applied considering the simple time series characteristics of the farm-gate price data. In the case of GPR model, it allows to cope with data missing problem of the weight data collected from the fish farm in the time and temperature domains. To solve the problem that the data acquired from the fish farm is aperiodic and small in amount, we generate the corresponding data by adopting a data augmentation method based on the Gaussian model. Finally, the estimation method for net profit is proposed by concatenating weight, price, and cost predictions. The performance of the proposed system is analyzed by applying the system to the Korean flounder data.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.123-137
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• 2010

The main purpose of this article is for deriving functions related to the prediction of the closure of the hospitals, and finding out how the discriminant functions affect the closure of the hospitals. Empirical data were collected from 3 years financial statements of 41 private hospitals closed down from 2000 till 2006 and 62 private hospitals in business till now. As a result, the functions related to the prediction of the closure of the private hospital are 4 indices: Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. From these discriminant functions predicting the closure, I found that the profitability indices - Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets - are the significant affecting factors. The discriminant functions predicting the closure of the group of the hospitals, 3 years before the closure were Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and among them Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues are the significant affecting factors. However 2 years before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure of the hospital were Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and it was the significant affecting factor. And, one year before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure were Total Assets Turnover, Fixed Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Total Assets, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. Among them, Total Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues were the significant affecting factors.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제9권12호
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• pp.4950-4966
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• 2015

Cloud providers now face the problem of estimating the amount of computing resources required to satisfy a future workload. In this paper, a virtual machine provisioning (VMP) mechanism is designed to adapt workload fluctuation. The arrival rate of forthcoming jobs is predicted for acquiring the proper service rate by adopting an exponential smoothing (ES) method. The proper service rate is estimated to guarantee the service level agreement (SLA) constraints by using a diffusion approximation statistical model. The VMP problem is formulated as a facility location problem. Furthermore, it is characterized as the maximization of submodular function subject to the matroid constraints. A greedy-based VMP algorithm is designed to obtain the optimal virtual machine provision pattern. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed mechanism could increase the average profit efficiently without incurring significant quality of service (QoS) violations.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.98-103
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• 2021

Recently, as the need for food resources has increased both domestically and internationally, support for the agricultural sector for stable food supply and demand is expanding in Korea. However, according to recent media articles, the biggest problem in rural communities is the unstable profit structure. In addition, in order to confirm the profit structure, profit forecast data must be clearly prepared, but there is a lack of auxiliary data for farmers or future returnees to predict farm income. Therefore, in this paper we analyzed data over the past 15 years through time series analysis and proposes an artificial intelligence farm income prediction algorithm that can predict farm household income in the future. If the proposed algorithm is used, it is expected that it can be used as auxiliary data to predict farm profits.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.35-54
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• 2009

The recent economic crisis not only reduces the profit of department stores but also incurs the significance losses caused by the increasing late-payment rate of credit cards. Under this pressure, the scope of credit prediction needs to be broadened from the simple prediction of whether this customer has a good credit or not to the accurate prediction of how much profit can be gained from this customer. This study classifies the delinquent customers of credit card in a Korean department store into homogeneous clusters. Using this information, this study analyzes the repayment patterns for each cluster and develops the credit prediction system to manage the delinquent customers. The model presented by this study uses Kohonen network, which is one of artificial neural networks of data mining technique, to cluster the credit delinquent customers into clusters. Cox proportional hazard model is also used, which is one of survival analysis used in medical statistics, to analyze the repayment patterns of the delinquent customers in each cluster. The presented model estimates the repayment period of delinquent customers for each cluster and introduces the influencing variables on the repayment pattern prediction. Although there are some differences among clusters, the variables about the purchasing frequency in a month and the average number of installment repayment are the most predictive variables for the repayment pattern. The accuracy of the presented system leaches 97.5%.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.157-165
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• 2022

As the stock market is affected by various circumstances including economic and political variables, predicting the stock market is considered a still open problem. When combined with corporate financial statement data analysis, which is used as fundamental analysis, and technical analysis with a short data generation cycle, there is a problem that the time domain does not match. Our proposed method, LSTE the operating profit and market outlook of a petrochemical company and estimates the sales and operating profit of the company, it was possible to solve the above-mentioned problems and improve the accuracy of stock price prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world stock data show that our method outperforms the 8.58% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.213-216
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• 2015

Despite the significant increase of Korean contractors in the international construction market, many SMCCs (Small & Medium Construction Companies) have suffered in the global financial crisis, and some of them have been kicked out of the international market after experiencing huge losses on projects. SMCCs face obstacles in the international market, such as an insufficient ability to gather information and inappropriate management of associated risks, which lead to difficulties in establishing effective business strategies. In other words, making immature decisions without an effective business strategy may cause not only the failure of one project but also the bankruptcy of the SMCC. To overcome this, the research presented herein aims to propose a decision support system for SMCCs, which would screen projects and make a go/no-go decision at the early stages of international projects. The proposed system comprises a double axis: (1) a profit prediction model, which evaluates 10 project properties using an objective methodology based on a historical project performance database and roughly suggests expected profit rate, and (2) a feasibility assessment model, which evaluates 17 project environment factors in a subjective and quantitative methodology based on experience and supervision. Finally, a web-based system is established to enhance the practical usability, which is expected to be a good reference for inexperienced SMCCs to make proper decisions and establish effective business strategies.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.313-320
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• 2021

본 연구는 경남 밀양 깻잎 농업의 수급 및 가격 모형을 개발하고 정책 실험을 통해 밀양 깻잎 생산 농가의 총 소득을 극대화하는 적정 생산 규모를 전망한다. 분석 자료는 밀양 깻잎 농업의 총 소득과 관련된 22개년 시계열 자료(1996~2017년)가 이용되었다. 분석 방법은 수요 함수와 평균 비용 함수 추정을 통하여 적정 생산량과 가격을 산출하고 이를 통해 적정 소득을 도출하였다. 또한, 시나리오 분석을 통하여 2030년까지 예상되는 밀양 깻잎 최적 생산량과 이에 해당하는 판매 가격, 총 수입, 총 비용, 총 소득을 전망하였다. 밀양 깻잎 생산 농가 전체를 대상으로 총 소득을 극대화하기 위해서는 2017년에 7천 톤 규모인 밀양 깻잎 생산량을 2030년까지 10~12.5천 톤으로 증가시킬 필요가 있다. 이 경우 밀양 깻잎 농업에 귀속되는 총 소득은 133~213억 원 수준으로 전망된다. 앞으로 밀양 깻잎 생산자 단체는 본 연구에서 제시한 적정 생산 규모를 유지하여 농가에게 귀속하는 총 소득을 증대시키도록 노력해야 할 것이다.