• 한국응용곤충학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.106-129
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• 1983

An emphasized analysis and reviews on the progress of pesticide managements for the past 10 years through the statistics in Korea are summarized in this continued studies in connection with the fundmental aspects and direction of advanced pesticide industry and improved plantprotection policies for 1980's. Remarkable development and changes are observed in the plant species and varieties, plantation practices and production techniques as well as pest infestations and controls in the last decade, but no normal achievement and operations are recognised on the pesticide management and marketing system especially. Realistic plant protection adminstration and pesticide regulations in accordance to the industrial modernization and pest management advancement must be adjusted in accordance with national economic progress and desirable agricultural structure for 1980's. Special considerations are stated on the strengthening of research and inspection program for the quality products and control with the efficacy and safety use of pesticides. More serious attentions are noted on the over production and flooded stocks under struggled market demands and sales competitions with lethal financial difficulties by producers. Through the status analyzed for the last decade, the integrated past management and cooperative basic control pattern under positive self-forecasting system by farmers are also urged for the effective and economic pest control measures. The problems and solutions discussed here ell the advanced pesticide management as well as the cooperation on the self-ordered quality control and market managing systems in 1980's as it is a desired projection for the further improvement. Most of outstanding and necessary statistics and data in the past decade are also summarized here for references in connection with the previous report.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.425-434
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• 2013

Nowadays, the korean peninsula has endured weather changes toward to the subtropical climate. Also demographical structure has changed into multi-cultural society in which many people from subtropical areas have immigrated into Korea. Therefore, consumption and production of subtropical vegetables become important. For the analysis, we choose eight important subtropical crops. EDM (Equilibrium Displacement Model) with many parameters and elasticities is used for the forecast of consumption and required cultivation area. The simulation focuses on the changes of the number of foreign workers and immigrated women in Korea to predict the quantity of consumption and required area in Korea. The results show that we need additional land area about 581~1,065 ha for the cropping subtropical vegetables in Korea. Finally, these required area can be provided by the cities and counties in coast area in Gyeongsangnam-Do, Jeonranam-Do and Jeju-Do. Climate change will be continued in the future. Together with climate change, the change of demographical structure into multi-culture may increase consumption and production of subtropical vegetables. Forecasting of increased consumption and required cultivation area for subtropical vegetables is significant.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.52-56
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• 2014

BACKGROUND: It is known that impacts of climate change on damage occurrence by insect pests and diseases are increasing. The negative effects of climate change on production will threaten our food security. It is needed that on the basis of analysis of the impacts, proper strategies in response to climate change are developed. METHODS AND RESULTS: The objective of this paper is to estimate impacts of climate change on rice damage occurrence by insect pests and diseases, using the panal model which analyzes both cross-section data and time series data. The result of an analysis on impacts of climate change on rice damage occurrence by pest insect and disease showed that the damage occurrence by Rice leaf roller and Rice water weevil increased if temperature increased, and damage occurrence by Stripe, Sheath blight, and Leaf Blast increased if precipitation(or amount of sunshine) increased(or decreased). CONCLUSION: Adaptation strategies, supplying weather forecasting information by region, developing systematical strategies for prevention of damage occurrence by pest insect and disease, analyzing the factors of damage occurrence by unexpected pest insect and disease, enforcing international cooperation for prevention of damage occurrence are needed to minimize the impacts of damage occurrence on rice production.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제27권7호
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• pp.509-518
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• 2018

Weather is the most influential factor for crop cultivation. Weather information for cultivated areas is necessary for growth and production forecasting of agricultural crops. However, there are limitations in the meteorological observations in cultivated areas because weather equipment is not installed. This study tested methods of predicting the daily mean temperature in onion fields using geostatistical models. Three models were considered: inverse distance weight method, generalized additive model, and Bayesian spatial linear model. Data were collected from the AWS (automatic weather system), ASOS (automated synoptic observing system), and an agricultural weather station between 2013 and 2016. To evaluate the prediction performance, data from AWS and ASOS were used as the modeling data, and data from the agricultural weather station were used as the validation data. It was found that the Bayesian spatial linear regression performed better than other models. Consequently, high-resolution maps of the daily mean temperature of Jeonnam were generated using all observed weather information.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

The study aims to determine the factors and their influence on the income from using public agricultural land of households. Public agricultural land is agricultural land, including land for growing annual crops, perennial crops, and land for aquaculture, leased by commune-level People's Committees with a lease term of not more than 5 years. Secondary data were collected for the 2017-2021 period at state agencies. Primary data were collected from a survey of 150 households renting public agricultural land. The regression model assumed that there were 28 factors belonging to 7 groups. The test results show that 25 factors affect income, and 03 factors do not. The group of COVID-19 pandemic factors has the strongest impact, followed by the groups of agricultural product market factors, land factors, capital factors, production cost factors, labor factors, and climatic factors. The impact rate of COVID-19 pandemic factors is the largest (23.00%); The impact rate of climatic factors is the smallest (6.04%). Proposals to increase income include good implementation of disease prevention and control; increasing the land lease term; accurately forecasting the supply and demand of the agricultural market; raising the level of the household head; ensuring sufficient production capital, and adapting to the climate.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권4호
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• pp.987-1001
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• 2021

One of the most critical issues in the dairy industry, alongside the low birth rate and the aging population, is the decrease in demand for milk. In this study, the consumption trends of 12 major dairy products distributed in Korea were predicted using a logistic model, the Gompertz model, and the Bass diffusion model, which are representative S-shaped growth models. The 12 dairy products are fermented milk (liquid type, cream type), butter, milk powder (modified, whole, skim), liquid milk (market, flavored), condensed milk, cheese (natural, processed), and cream. As a result of the analysis, the growth potential of butter, condensed milk, natural cheese, processed cheese, and cream consumption among the 12 dairy products is relatively high, whereas the growth of the remaining dairy product consumption is expected to stagnate or decrease. However, butter and cream are by-products of the skim milk powder manufacturing process. Therefore, even if the consumption of butter and cream grows, it is difficult to increase the demand of domestic milk unless the production of skim milk powder produced from domestic milk is also increased. Therefore, in order to support the domestic dairy industry, policy support should be focused on increasing domestic milk usage for the production of condensed milk, natural cheese, and processed cheese.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.119-132
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• 2020

In this paper we explore the two analyses to know the urbanization effect on trade. First, the granger causality test to examine the relationship between trade and urbanization. The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. The results indicated that the existence of a bidirectional causality running from trade to urbanization when six lags were applied. When eight lags were applied, we found unidirectional causality running from urbanization to trade. Second, gravity models were used to investigate the urbanization effect on trade. The production cost and specification are affected by the economies of scale, and the economies of scale increased as the greater geographically agglomeration. However, the gravity model to explain the bilateral trade flows ignores the urbanization variables. Therefore we added the urbanization variable represented as the geographically agglomeration into gravity model. The results show that the degree of urbanization of both countries has statistically positive effect on trade (export and import) and the bigger coefficients of trade partner's urbanization. The reason is that the trade share of industrial supplies, intermediate goods and capital goods is much higher than finished consumer goods. The urbanization is more important the improved the efficiency of production than demand market.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제28권7호
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• pp.57-65
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• 2023

쌀 생산량 예측의 정확성을 높이기 위한 대다수의 연구는 모델의 정확도 증진에 초점이 맞춰져 있다. 이에 비해, 예측 모델을 적용할 대상 데이터 자체에 관한 연구는 상대적으로 미흡하다. 쌀 생산량 데이터에 동일한 종속변수와 예측 모델을 사용하여 다른 특성들로 구성된 두 부류의 데이터에 적용하면, 결과의 차이가 발생하는데 이때 어느 데이터 셋이 더 우수한지 판단하기는 어려운 일이다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해, 예측 모델 적용 전에 데이터 내에서 예측 결과에 큰 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있는 특성들을 선별하고, 이를 중심으로 모델링을 수행하면, 데이터의 구성이 다르더라도 안정적인 예측 결과를 얻을 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구에서는 기상청의 종관기상관측(ASOS) 데이터를 활용하여, 쌀 생산량의 안정적이고 일관된 예측을 위해 데이터 구성 특성들의 조정을 통해 최적의 기반 변수를 선별하는 방법에 대해 제안한다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 다른 연구에서 성능평가의 유용성을 높이는 데 기여할 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 다단계 수압파쇄와 수평시추가 적용된 셰일가스정에서 생산자료의 유동형태에 따라 적절한 분석 방법과 궁극가채량을 산출하는 기법을 결정하는 방법을 정리한 흐름도를 제안하였다. 또한 1차 천이유동만이 나타나는 현장자료에 대해 생산천이유동 분석을 수행할 때 고려해야 하는 사항들을 제안하였다. log-log 그래프와 시간제곱근 그래프 분석을 통해 생산자료의 유동 특성을 분류할 수 있고, 이 결과, 1차 천이유동만이 나타나는 생산자료는 이 유동이 종료되는 시점을 정확히 예측하여 이 시점을 기준으로 생산성을 각각 예측하여야 한다. 이 시점은 미세탄성파 탐사자료 해석을 통해 균열자극부피의 면적을 계산함으로써 산출할 수 있다. 공저압력자료나 미세탄성파 탐사자료가 없다면 셰일가스정에 적절한 경험적 방법을 활용하여 생산성을 예측할 수 있다. 생산기간이 짧은 자료는 상대적으로 생산기간이 긴 인접 생산정의 자료를 활용하여 생산기간의 적절성을 평가한 후 필요하다면 생산초기 자료를 제외하고 분석하는 것이 정확도를 향상시킬 수 있다. 또한 미세탄성파 탐사자료 해석에 의해 산출된 SRV는 분석방법이나 분석자의 주관에 의해 과대, 과소 평가될 수 있기 때문에 파쇄 단계, 파쇄유체 주입량, 생산성 분석을 통한 적절성평가를 수행하여 필요한 경우, 저류층 시뮬레이션, 균열모델링, 생산천이분석을 통해 재산정하는 것이 필요하다.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.63-74
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• 2008

공정 개선의 문제는 원가 절감, 수익구조 개선을 목표로 하는 생산 전략부서, 생산 계획에 의해 제시된 제품의 목적 생산량을 달성할 수 있는 공정 설계하고자 하는(설계 공정 능력, Tact time) 공정 설계 부서의 공통 요구사항이다. 목표하는 생산량을 달성하기 위해 작게는 라인밸런싱(Line-Balancing), 병목공정 제거를 수행하고 있으며, 크게는 설비 증설, 작업자 증원 등의 공정 개선을 시도한다. 문제는 대부분의 경우, 공정 개선 프로세스가 정적 예측 기반의 수리적인 방식에 기인하고 있다는 점이며, 특히 라인 생산 기반의 컨베이어 공정의 경우, 컨베이어의 이송 능력에 따른 대기시간 부분이 배제되고 있다는 것이다. 공정 대기시간은 설비의 정미시간과는 별개의 문제로 설비의 싸이클 타임(Cycle Time)의 수치에 따라 변동하는 변수로서 중요하다. 이에 본 논문에서는 H 사의 컨베이어 라인 공정을 대상으로 이산 사건 기반의 시뮬레이션을 수행하여 일련의 공정 개선 프로세스를 밟아가며, 컨베이어에 의해 발생하는 공정 대기시간의 공정 개선에의 기여도를 측정하여 공정 개선의 주요 변수로서 제시하고자 한다.