• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability-Load-Life

검색결과 63건 처리시간 0.043초

ARIMA Based Wind Speed Modeling for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis and Cost Estimation

  • Rajeevan, A.K.;Shouri, P.V;Nair, Usha
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2016
  • Necessity has compelled man to improve upon the art of tapping wind energy for power generation; an apt reliever of strain exerted on the non-renewable fossil fuel. The power generation in a Wind Farm (WF) depends on site and wind velocity which varies with time and season which in turn determine wind power modeling. It implies, the development of an accurate wind speed model to predict wind power fluctuations at a particular site is significant. In this paper, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model for wind speed is developed for a 99MW wind farm in the southern region of India. Because of the uncertainty in wind power developed, the economic viability and reliability of power generation is significant. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) method is used to determine the economic viability of WF generated power. Reliability models of WF are developed with the help of load curve of the utility grid and Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). ARIMA wind speed model is used for developing COPT. The values of annual reliability indices and variations of risk index of the WF with system peak load are calculated. Such reliability models of large WF can be used in generation system planning.

Repairable k-out-n system work model analysis from time response

  • Fang, Yongfeng;Tao, Webliang;Tee, Kong Fah
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.775-783
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    • 2013
  • A novel reliability-based work model of k/n (G) system has been developed. Unit failure probability is given based on the load and strength distributions and according to the stress-strength interference theory. Then a dynamic reliability prediction model of repairable k/n (G) system is established using probabilistic differential equations. The resulting differential equations are solved and the value of k can be determined precisely. The number of work unit k in repairable k/n (G) system is obtained precisely. The reliability of whole life cycle of repairable k/n (G) system can be predicted and guaranteed in the design period. Finally, it is illustrated that the proposed model is feasible and gives reasonable prediction.

해상풍력 구조물 설계를 위한 풍황 특성분석 (Analysis on wind condition characteristics for an offshore structure design)

  • 서현수;경남호;;김현구
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.262-267
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    • 2008
  • The long-term wind data are reconstructed from the short-term meteorological data to design the 4 MW offshore wind park which will be constructed at Woljeong-ri, Jeju island, Korea. Using two MCP (Measure-Correlate-Predict) models, the relative deviation of wind speed and direction from two neighboring reference weather stations can be regressed at each azimuth sector. The validation of the present method is checked about linear and matrix MCP models for the sets of measured data, and the characteristic wind turbulence is estimated from the ninety-percent percentile of standard deviation in the probability distribution. Using the Gumbel's model, the extreme wind speed of fifty-year return period is predicted by the reconstructed long-term data. The predicted results of this analysis concerning turbulence intensity and extreme wind speed are used for the calculation of fatigue life and extreme load in the design procedure of wind turbine structures at offshore wind farms.

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Energy-balance node-selection algorithm for heterogeneous wireless sensor networks

  • Khan, Imran;Singh, Dhananjay
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제40권5호
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    • pp.604-612
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    • 2018
  • To solve the problem of unbalanced loads and the short network lifetime of heterogeneous wireless sensor networks, this paper proposes a node-selection algorithm based on energy balance and dynamic adjustment. The spacing and energy of the nodes are calculated according to the proximity to the network nodes and the characteristics of the link structure. The direction factor and the energy-adjustment factor are introduced to optimize the node-selection probability in order to realize the dynamic selection of network nodes. On this basis, the target path is selected by the relevance of the nodes, and nodes with insufficient energy values are excluded in real time by the establishment of the node-selection mechanism, which guarantees the normal operation of the network and a balanced energy consumption. Simulation results show that this algorithm can effectively extend the network lifetime, and it has better stability, higher accuracy, and an enhanced data-receiving rate in sufficient time.

독립형 태양광 발전 시스템의 무정전 전력공급을 위한 시스템 용량 최적 선정에 관한 연구 (A Research on the Optimal System Sizing of the Standalone Photovoltaic Power Generation System for Uninterruptible Power Supply)

  • 김기영;최우진
    • 전력전자학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 전력전자학회 2017년도 전력전자학술대회
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    • pp.68-69
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    • 2017
  • 본 논문에서는 독립형 태양광 시스템의 설계에서 배터리 용량 선정 방식에 관련하여 부하손실확률(LLP: Loss of Load Probability)이 0 인 기준을 토대로 시스템 무정전 전력공급을 위한 시행 착오법을 제안하였으며 시스템의 수명주기비용(LCC: Life Cycle Cost)을 분석하여 기존 시스템에 비해 경제성을 높이고자 한다. 제안한 방식의 검증을 위하여 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다.

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An Efficient Duty Cycle Based Communication Scheme for Wireless Sensor Network

  • Rahman, Md. Obaidur;Monowar, Muhammad Mostafa;Cho, Jin Woong;Lee, Jang Yeon;Hong, Choong Seon
    • 한국정보처리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보처리학회 2009년도 추계학술발표대회
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    • pp.525-526
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    • 2009
  • Due to the limitation of battery life time, energy is one of the most crucial issues for wireless sensor networks. Thus this paper proposes an energy efficient duty cycle scheme to conserve energy mostly. To handle the large varieties of data (i.e., both low and high traffic load) the proposed duty cycle scheme ensures a fair access period (FAP) and a prioritized access period (PAP). The idea presented in this paper able to reduce the collision probability and energy consumption. Finally simulation outputs have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed duty cycle task and showed a noticeable performance in terms of energy usage.

일정진폭하중하의 피로균열전파의 통계적 특성 (A Statistical Analysis of Fatigue Crack Growth under Constant-Amplitude Loads)

  • 정현철;임영규;김선진
    • 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국해양공학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.104-109
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, a statistical analysis of fatigue crack growth behavior under constant amplitude loads has been carried out. Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on sixteen pre-cracked compact tension (CT) specimens of the pressure vessel (SPV50) steel in controlled identical load and environmental conditions. The assessment of the statistical distribution of fatigue crack growth experimental data obtained from SPV50 steel was studied and also the correlation of the parameter C and m in the Paris-Erdogan law was discussed. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull. The fatigue crack growth rate seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull and the log-normal distribution. The coefficient of variation (COV) of fatigue crack growth life was observed to decrease as the crack grows. A strong negative linear correlation exists between the coefficient C and the exponent m in Paris model. Fatigue crack growth rate data shows a normal distribution for both m and logC.

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일정진폭하중하의 확률론적 피로균열전파거동 (Probabilistic Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior under Constant Amplitude Loads)

  • 정현철;김선진
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.923-929
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, an analysis of fatigue crack growth behavior from a statistical point of view has been carried out. Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on sixteen pre-cracked compact tension (CT) specimens of the pressure vessel (SPV50) steel in controlled identical load and environmental conditions. The assessment of the statistical distribution of fatigue crack growth experimental data obtained from SPV50 steel was studied and also the correlation of the parameter C and m in the Paris-Erdogan law was discussed. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull. The fatigue crack growth rate seems to follow the 3-parameter Weibull and the log-normal distribution. The coefficient of variation (COV) of fatigue crack growth life was observed to decrease as the crack grows. Fatigue crack growth rate data shows a normal distribution for both m and logC. A strong negative linear correlation exists between the coefficient C and the exponent m.

환경영향인자를 고려한 강교의 생애주기비용 최적설계 (Life-Cycle Cost-Effective Optimum Design of Steel Bridges Considering Environmental Stressors)

  • 이광민;조효남;차철준
    • 한국강구조학회 논문집
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    • 제17권2호통권75호
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    • pp.227-241
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문에서는 생애주기동안 발생하는 부식이나 일평균교통량 및 중차량의 통행량와 같은 사용환경에 의존하는 강교의 생애신뢰성에 기초한 생애주기비용(Life-Cycle Cost: 이하 LCC) 최적설계 방법론을 제안하였다. 강교 최적설계를 위한 LCC는 초기비용, 생애주기 기대유지관리비용, 생애주기 기대직접복구비용과 인적 혹은 물적손실비용, 도로이용자비용, 그리고 사회-경제 손실비용을 포함하는 간접복구비용을 현재가치의 합으로 정식화하였다. 이러한 LCC비용항목 중에서 생애주기 복구비용의 산정을 위해서는 하중과 저항이력에 의존하는 누적손확률로부터 산정되는 연파손확률이 고려되어야한다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서는 Nowak의 활하중 모델(1993)과 부식개시, 부식률, 그리고 재도장영향을 고려한 수정된 부식모델을 제안하였다. 이와같이 본 연구에서 제안된 LCC 최적설계 방법론은 3 경간연속(40m+50m+40m= 130m)의 실제 강박스거더교에 적용되었고, 사용환경에 대한 LCC의 효율성에 대해 비교 고찰하였다. 적용예를 통해 부식환경, 일평균교통량, 그리고 중차량의 통행량는 강교 LCC최적설계에 매우 중요한 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 알 수 있었으며, 이러한 교량의 사용환경인자들은 경우에 따라 LCC 최적설계에 대한 주요 변수로 고려되어야 할 것으로 판단된다.

생애 신뢰성에 기초한 강교의 LCC최적설계 (Lifetime Reliability Based Life-Cycle Cost-Effective Optimum Design of Steel Bridges)

  • 이광민;조효남;차철준;김성헌
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제26권1A호
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문에서는 생애주기동안 발생하는 부식이나 일평균교통량 및 중차량의 통행량와 같은 사용환경에 의존하는 강교의 생애신뢰성에 기초한 생애주기비용(Life-Cycle Cost: 이하 LCC) 최적설계 방법론을 제안하였다. 강교 최적설계를 위한 LCC는 초기비용, 생애주기 기대유지관리비용, 생애주기 기대직접복구비용과 인적 혹은 물적손실비용, 도로이용자비용, 그리고 사회-경제 손실비용을 포함하는 간접복구비용을 현재가치의 합으로 정식화하였다. 이러한 LCC비용항목 중에서 생애주기 복구비용의 산정을 위해서는 하중과 저항이력에 의존하는 누적손상확률로부터 산정되는 연파손확률이 고려되어야한다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서는 Nowak의 활하중 모델(1993)과 부식개시, 부식률, 그리고 재도장영향을 고려한 수정된 부식모델을 제안하였다. 이와같이 본 연구에서 제안된 LCC 최적설계 방법론은 3 경간연속(40 m+50 m+40 m=130 m)의 실제 강박스거더교에 적용되었고, 강재종류, 부식환경, 교통량 및 할인율에 따른 LCC의 효율성에 대해 비교 고찰하였다. 적용예를 통해 부식환경, 일평균교통량, 그리고 중차량의 통행량, 할인율 등은 강교 LCC최적설계에 매우 중요한 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 알 수 있었으며, 이러한 교량의 사용환경인자들은 경우에 따라 LCC 최적설계에 대한 주요 변수로 고려되어야 할 것으로 판단된다.