• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제50권6호
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• pp.27-35
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• 2008

This study aims to estimate the optimal probability distribution of daily electricity generation by wind power, in order to contribute in rural green-village planning. Wind power generation is now being recognized as one of the most popular sources for renewable resources over the country. Although it is also being adapted to rural area for may reasons, it is important to estimate the magnitudes of power outputs with reliable statistical methodologies while applying historical daily wind data, for correct feasibility analysis. In this study, one of the well-known statistical methodology is employed to define the appropriate statistical distributions for monthly power outputs for specific rural areas. The results imply that the assumption of normal distributions for many cases may lead to incorrect decision-making and therefore lead to the unreliable feasibility analysis. Subjective methodology for testing goodness of fit for normal distributions on all the cases in this study, provides possibilities to consider the other various types of statistical distributions for more precise feasibility analysis.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권7호
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• pp.1120-1130
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• 2018

An analysis of a pyroprocessing safeguards methodology employing the Pu-to-$^{244}Cm$ ratio is presented. The analysis includes characterization of representative used nuclear fuel assemblies with respect to computed nuclide composition. The nuclide composition data computationally generated is appropriately reformatted to correspond with the material conditions after each step in the head-end stage of pyroprocessing. Uncertainty in the Pu-to-$^{244}Cm$ ratio is evaluated using the Geary-Hinkley transformation method. This is because the Pu-to-$^{244}Cm$ ratio is a Cauchy distribution since it is the ratio of two normally distributed random variables. The calculated uncertainty of the Pu-to-$^{244}Cm$ ratio is propagated through the mass flow stream in the pyroprocessing steps. Finally, the probability of Type-I error for the plutonium Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is evaluated by the hypothesis testing method as a function of the sizes of powder particles and granules, which are dominant parameters to determine the sample size. The results show the probability of Type-I error is occasionally greater than 5%. However, increasing granule sample sizes could surmount the weakness of material accounting because of the non-uniformity of nuclide composition.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.187-198
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• 2009

In this paper, three power ramp tests performed on high burn-up Re-crystallized Zircaloy2 - UO2 BWR fuel rods (56 to 63 MWd/kgU) within the SCIP project are simulated with METEOR and ALCYONE 3D. Two of the ramp tests are of staircase type up to Linear Heat Rates of 420 and 520 W/cm and with long holding periods. Failure of the 420 W/cm fuel rod was observed after 40 minutes. The third ramp test consisted of a more standard ramp test with a constant power rate of 80 W/cm/min up to 410 W/cm with a short holding time. The tests were first simulated with the METEOR 1D fuel rod code, which gave accurate results in terms of profilometry and fission gas releases. The behaviour of a fuel pellet fragment and of the cladding piece on top of it was then investigated with ALCYONE 3D. The size and the main characteristics of the ridges after base irradiation and power ramp testing were recovered. Finally, the failure criteria validated for PWR conditions and fuel rods with low-to-medium burn-ups were used to analyze the failure probability of the KKL rodlets during ramp testing.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.395-408
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• 2015

This study aims to propose a Bayesian approach to consider changes in temperature and vehicle weight as environmental and operational factors for vibration-based long-term bridge health monitoring. The Bayesian approach consists of three steps: step 1 is to identify damage-sensitive features from coefficients of the auto-regressive model utilizing bridge accelerations; step 2 is to perform a regression analysis of the damage-sensitive features to consider environmental and operational changes by means of the Bayesian regression; and step 3 is to make a decision on the bridge health condition based on residuals, differences between the observed and predicted damage-sensitive features, utilizing 95% confidence interval and the Bayesian hypothesis testing. Feasibility of the proposed approach is examined utilizing monitoring data on an in-service bridge recorded over a one-year period. Observations through the study demonstrated that the Bayesian regression considering environmental and operational changes led to more accurate results than that without considering environmental and operational changes. The Bayesian hypothesis testing utilizing data from the healthy bridge, the damage probability of the bridge was judged as no damage.

• 대한수의학회지
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.357-361
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• 2008

Although power analysis is of important tool of research, investigators in veterinary medicine are unaware of the concepts of the statistical power. Two types of error occur in classical hypothesis testing and, those errors should be avoided, if possible. Since power is highly dependent on the sample size, whenever declaring non-statistically significant result they should consider the potential for committing a Type II error in their studies, which refers to the probability of falsely stating that two treatments are equivalent despite true difference between them. Also, sample size determination is one of the most important tasks facing the researcher when planning a diagnostic study, and provides valuable information on the characteristics of a test performance. This type of analysis forms the basis for proper interpretation of test results. The aim of this article was to re-evaluate some selected studies on diagnostic test reported in the domestic veterinary publications to determine the power and necessary sample size for inequality testing to ensure the desired power. Power calculations were illustrated using real-life examples of comparison of a new test and a reference test for detecting antibodies of various animal diseases. Factors affecting to the power were also discussed.

• 음성과학
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.55-65
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• 2008

Recently, the multi-model based speech recognizer has been used quite successfully for noisy speech recognition. For the selection of the reference HMM (hidden Markov model) which best matches the noise type and SNR (signal to noise ratio) of the input testing speech, the estimation of the SNR value using the VAD (voice activity detection) algorithm and the classification of the noise type based on the GMM (Gaussian mixture model) have been done separately in the multi-model framework. As the SNR estimation process is vulnerable to errors, we propose an efficient method which can classify simultaneously the SNR values and noise types. The KL (Kullback-Leibler) distance between the single Gaussian distributions for the noise signal during the training and testing is utilized for the classification. The recognition experiments have been done on the Aurora 2 database showing the usefulness of the model compensation method in the multi-model based speech recognizer. We could also see that further performance improvement was achievable by combining the probability density function of the MCT (multi-condition training) with that of the reference HMM compensated by the D-JA (data-driven Jacobian adaptation) in the multi-model based speech recognizer.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.53-61
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• 2012

많은 조사에서 표본 크기는 유의수준 또는 제1종 오류확률만을 고려하여 결정하였으나 최근에는 다양한 분야를 중심으로 제1종 오류확률뿐만 아니라 제2종 오류확률 또는 검정력을 함께 고려하여 표본 크기를 결정하는 경우가 늘어나고 있다. 이런 경향은 표본을 많이 얻을 수 없는 연구에서 더욱 뚜렸하다. 본 연구에서는 모평균과 모비율에 대한 검정에서 제1종 오류뿐만 아닌 제2종 오류를 고려한 경우 필요한 표본 크기를 결정하는 과정을 살펴보고 이를 웹사이트를 통해 공개하였다. 또한 주어진 표본 크기와 유의수준에 의한 검정력 계산도 함께 공개하였다.

• 비파괴검사학회지
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.375-382
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• 2007

전자기적인 방법을 이용한 비파괴검사는 금속의 표면 및 표면 근방의 균열을 탐상하는데 매우 유용하다. 그러나, 강자성체, 상자성체 또는 강자성체와 상자성체 조직이 혼재되는 경우가 발생하여 기존의 비파괴검사법에 의하면 탐상신호의 해석에 어려움이 많다. 또한, 경우에 따라서는 국부적인 자성체의 존재를 유사결함으로 오해 또는 큰 결함을 국부적인 자성체의 존재로 오해할 수 있다. 한편, 원자력 발전소의 구조물 소재로 중요하게 사용되고 있는 Inconel은 결함 발생시 Nickel로 피막 처리한 후 연장 사용하게 된다. 이때, 상자성체인 Inconel과 강자성체인 Nickel의 혼재에 의하여 결함을 탐상하기 곤란하다. 본 연구에서는 Inconel 부재, Nickel 코팅부위 및 경계면에 존재하는 결함을 탐상하기 위한 방법으로써, 복합 유도전류-누설자속법과 고밀도 홀센서 배열을 이용한 라인스캔형 자기카메라를 제안하고, 탐상 가능 결함의 깊이 및 정량 평가 가능성에 대하여 보고한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.9-18
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• 1994

월성 원자력발전소의 안전계통은 비상사태시에만 작동하는 3분의 2논리로 구성되어 있다. 그들의 작동성을 보증하기 위해 이 안전계통은 주기적으로 점검되어진다. 본연구에서 사람의 실수가 고려되어진 3분의 2논리 구성 시스템에서의 불이용도가 계산되어졌다. 그리고 우리는 시험기간중에 사람의 실수또는 기계의 고장으로 인해 발전정지를 일으킬 확률을 구했다. 우리는 이 불이용도와 발전정지를 일으킬 확률을 둘다 고려하여 적정한 최적점검주기를 계산하였다. 이렇게 얻어진 점검주기와 현재 사용되는 점검주기를 비교하면 사람의 실수를 최소(8.24 $\times$ $10^{-6}$ )로 보았을때 최적점검주기는 현재 사용되는 점검주기 보다 조금 짧았고 사람의 실수를 최대 (4.44 $\times$ $10^{-4}$ )로 보았을 때 최적점검주기는 현재 사용하는 점검 주기보다 다소 긴 것으로 계산되어졌다.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제10D권5호
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• pp.829-836
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• 2003

소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델은 다양하게 연구되어져 있다. 그러나 이러한 모델에서 정확한 모수를 측정하는 것은 그리 쉽지 않다. 특히 고장 데이터에 대하여 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델의 추정이 정확히 이루어져야만 모델을 설명하는 모수의 추정도 정확하게 이루어질 수 있다. 이러한 측면에서 테스팅을 통해서 얻어진 소프트웨어의 고장 데이터의 정규확률점수를 구해서 두 개의 값에 대한 플롯을 그려보고 그려진 결과를 이용해서 분포를 예측하여 예측된 분포에 적합한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델을 적용한다면 상당히 정확한 테스팅 결과론 얻을 수 있을 것이다. 본 논문에서는 고장 테이터의 플롯을 통한 결과를 통해서 분포를 예측하고 모델을 성능평가 척도에 따라서 모의실험을 하여 그 결과를 통해서 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델의 적합성을 검정하는 연구이다. 연구결과 고장데이터의 정규점수를 이용한 플롯을 보고 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모델을 예측할 수 있었고 이러한 예측을 통해서 모델 선정한다면 모델의 성능평가에서도 우수함을 확인할 수 있다.