• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of being in response

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Understanding Probabilistic Independence using Randomized Response Technique (확률화 응답 기법을 활용한 확률적 독립의 이해)

  • 최경호;김래선
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2001
  • Classroom exercise using the randomized response technique may be used to summarize a high school unit of instruction on probability. In this paper, we show that the derivation of the formula for this technique illustrates basic concepts in probability, such events being mutually disjoint and independent.

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Thurstonian Modeling for Triangular Method toward Analysis of Rating Data

  • Yu, Si-Nae;Sung, Nae-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 1999
  • Products are often evaluated on rating scales to measure and quantify their attributes of interest. In case that one wishes to compare multiple rating datasets simultaneously, there must be a standardized scale with which one can discriminate relative differences among corresponding scale means. In this regard, the concept of Thurstonian modeling applied to various discrimination tests including the triangular method has been recently being reconsidered. In this paper we extend previous researches on the triangular method and evaluate the effect of unequal variances and correlated variables upon the probability of correct response using Monte-Carlo simulation. We observed that the probability of correct response depends on dimensionality, variances, and correlation structure of stimulus sets. But it does not depend on the relative orientation in a multidimensional space.

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Response modification factor and seismic fragility assessment of skewed multi-span continuous concrete girder bridges

  • Khorraminejad, Amir;Sedaghati, Parshan;Foliente, Greg
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.389-403
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    • 2021
  • Skewed bridges, being irregular structures with complicated dynamic behavior, are more susceptible to earthquake damage. Reliable seismic-resistant design of skewed bridges can be achieved by accurate determination of nonlinear seismic demands. However, the effect of geometric characteristics on the response modification factor (R-factor) is not accounted for in bridge design practices. This study attempts to investigate the effects of changes in the number of spans, skew angle and bearing stiffness on R-factor values and to assess the seismic fragility of skewed bridges. Results indicated that changes in the skew angle had no significant effect on R-factor values which were in consonance with code-prescribed R values. Also, unlike the increase in the number of spans that resulted in a decrease in the R-factor, the increase in bearing stiffness led to higher R-factor values. Findings of the fragility analysis implied that although the increase in the number of spans, as well as the increase in the skew angle, led to a higher failure probability, greater values of bearing stiffness reduced the collapse probability. For practicing design engineers, it is recommended that maximum demands on substructure elements to be calculated when the excitation angle is applied along the principal axes of skewed bridges.

Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Energy Deposition in Tissue. The Problem of Effects from Low Doses of Ionizing Radiation

  • Le, Feinendegen;J, Booz
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 1992
  • Low doses of ionizing radiation from external or internal sources cause heterogeneous distribution of energy deposition events in the exposed biological system. With the cell being the individual element of the tissue system, the fraction of cells hit, the dose received by the hit, and the biological response of the cell to the dose received eventually determine the effect in tissue. The hit cell may experience detriment, such as change in its DNA leading to a malignant transformation, or it may derive benefit in terms of an adaptive response such as a temporary improvement of DNA repair or temporary prevention of effects from intracellular radicals through enhanced radical detoxification. These responses are protective also to toxic substances that are generated during normal metabolism. Within a multicellular system, the probability of detriment must be weighed against the probability of benefit through adaptive responses with protection against various toxic agents including those produced by normal metabolism. Because irradiation can principally induce both, detriment and adaptive responses, one type of affected cells may not be simply summed up at the expense of cells with other types of effects, in assessing risk to tissue. An inventory of various types of effects in the blood forming system of mammals, even with large ranges of uncertainty, uncovers the possibility of benefit to the system from exposure to low doses of low LET radiation. This experimental approach may complement epidemiological data on individuals exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation and may lead to a more rational appraisal of risk.

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Performance Analysis of an Intelligent Peripheral System in Advanced Intelligent Network (시뮬레이션을 통한 AIN IP 시스템의 호처리용량 분석)

  • Suh, Jae-Joon;Choi, Go-Bang;Yeo, Kun-Min;Jun, Chi-Hyuck
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 1998
  • Intelligent Peripheral(IP) system is to provide specialized resource functions (SRF) such as playing announcement, collecting user information, and receiving messages in the Advanced Intelligent Network (AIN). We analyze the call processing capacity of an AIN IP system being developed in ETRI through an extensive simulation using SLAM II under a variety of AIN service scenarios. We consider televoting (VOT) and universal personal telecommunication (UPT) services which are to be provided at the fit implementation of the AIN in Korea. As the performance criteria to determine the call processing capacity, processor utilization, delay and call loss probability are considered. It turns out that the major processor called SAMP is the bottleneck processor, the service response delay dominates the delay performance, and the call loss probability becomes the primary criterion in determining the call processing capacity of the AIN IP system. It is also shown that the call processing capacity of the AIN IP system is determined by the utilization of the processor and the delay performance when the VOT ratio is below 70 percent but it is determined by the call loss probability due to the lack of service channels for providing the SRF operations.

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Study on Physical Characteristics of Historical and Artificial Ground Accelration (역사지진 및 인공지진의 물리적특성에 관한 연구)

  • 전환석
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.04a
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    • pp.52-57
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    • 1998
  • Becaruse of the continual occurrence of minor and moderate earthquake in Korean peninsula, it is generally considered that Korean is nor located in safe region against probable earthquake and more, even though being recognized as a safe contry in earthquake. It is in particular noted that nowadays there has been much concern about undesirable disaster due to unexpected earthquake since the disaster of 1995 Kobe earthquake. Thus, the objective of this research is to develop appropriate design spectrum which could be practicably used in seismic design of important structures taking into consideration of local physical characteristics. Particularly, we have to keep in mind the lessons from 1985 Mexico earthquake which had disregarded deep research on local ground conditions, being a possible magnification phenomena of ground motions in weak soil layer. Various spectra has been described based on the analysis of historical earthquakes, and appropriate design spectrum has been proposed herein.

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Estimation of Ridge Regression Under the Integrate Mean Square Error Cirterion

  • Yong B. Lim;Park, Chi H.;Park, Sung H.
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.61-77
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    • 1980
  • In response surface experiments, a polynomial model is often used to fit the response surface by the method of least squares. However, if the vectors of predictor variables are multicollinear, least squares estimates of the regression parameters have a high probability of being unsatisfactory. Hoerland Kennard have demonstrated that these undesirable effects of multicollinearity can be reduced by using "ridge" estimates in place of the least squares estimates. Ridge regrssion theory in literature has been mainly concerned with selection of k for the first order polynomial regression model and the precision of $\hat{\beta}(k)$, the ridge estimator of regression parameters. The problem considered in this paper is that of selecting k of ridge regression for a given polynomial regression model with an arbitrary order. A criterion is proposed for selection of k in the context of integrated mean square error of fitted responses, and illustrated with an example. Also, a type of admissibility condition is established and proved for the propose criterion.criterion.

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Generation of Design Response Spectrum and Earthquake Ground Motion Considering the Recurrence Period (재현주기에 따른 응답스펙트럼과 설계지반운동 산정방법)

  • 이현호
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.04a
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    • pp.58-65
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    • 1998
  • A purpose of this research is to develope the calculation methods of design input seismic loads, Where, calculation methods are ; (1) Considering different recurrence period of earthquakes which was proposed by ATC 14. (2) Using earthquake records which was modified Korean codes. Responce spectra that was adopted by codes has an estimated recurrence interval of 500 years, with approximately a 90 percent probability of not being exceeded in 50 years. But If we considered the life-time of existing buildings in some cases, response spectra be modified with return period of earthquakes. If we be design highrise and irregular buildings, dynamic analysis method that use time history records should be used. But in Korea, time history records of earthquakes was very few. Therefore to use foreign countries's earthquake record, it is need to select of records considered Korean coeds. As a results, this study propose a calculation method of seismic design input loads that considered return period of earthquakes and also propose using method of earthquakes.

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Probabilistic capacity spectrum method considering soil-structure interaction effects (지반-구조물 상호작용 효과를 고려한 확률론적 역량스펙트럼법)

  • Nocete, Chari Fe M.;Kim, Doo-Kie;Kim, Dong-Hyawn;Cho, Sung-Gook
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2008
  • The capacity spectrum method (CSM) is a deterministic seismic analysis approach wherein the expected seismic response of a structure is established as the intersection of the demand and capacity curves. Recently, there are a few studies about a probabilistic CSM where uncertainties in design factors such as material properties, loads, and ground motion are being considered. However, researches show that soil-structure interaction also affects the seismic responses of structures. Thus, their uncertainties should also be taken into account. Therefore, this paper presents a probabilistic approach of using the CSM for seismic analysis considering uncertainties in soil properties. For application, a reinforced concrete bridge column structure is employed as a test model. Considering the randomness of the various design parameters, the structure's probability of failure is obtained. Monte Carlo importance sampling is used as the tool to assess the structure's reliability when subjected to earthquakes. In this study, probabilistic CSM with and without consideration of soil uncertainties are compared and analyzed. Results show that the analysis considering soil structure interaction yields to a greater probability of failure, and thus can lead to a more conservative structural design.

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