• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.77-85
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• 2012

자동사고검지 알고리즘의 대부분은 사고가 발생했을 때 사고로 검지하지 못하고, 혼잡으로 검지하는 경우가 많다는 문제점을 가지고 있다. 또한 교통정보센터 운영자들은 교통사고검지시스템을 운영하면서 대부분 CCTV 육안감시 또는 운전자들의 신고에 의존하여 사고처리를 하고 있는 실정이다. 그 이유는 현재 운영되고 있는 교통사고검지시스템에서는 실제 사고가 아닌데도 불구하고, 사고라는 오검지 경고가 많이 발생되어 시스템 전체의 신뢰도가 떨어진다는 문제점이 있기 때문이다. 다시 말해 교통사고검지시스템의 알고리즘은 검지율(Detection probability)이 높아야 함과 동시에, 오검지율(False alarm probability)은 낮아야 하고, 정확한 사고지점과 시간을 검지해 낼 수 있어야 한다. 이에 본 연구는 검지율을 높이고 동시에, 오검지율을 낮추는 방법으로 기 개발된 가우시안 혼합모델(Gaussian Mixture Model)과 개별차량 Tracking을 이용하여 개발한 사고검지 알고리즘을 교통정보센터 관리시스템(Center Management System)에 적용하고, 실제 교통상황에서 사고검지율과 오검지의 빈도를 측정하여 그 효과를 검증 및 평가하고자 한다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제35권9호
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• pp.729-733
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• 2011

The maritime risk assessment is important not only to evaluate the safety level of the ports and waterways but also to reduce potential maritime accidents at sea in terms of the proactive measures of the maritime accidents. In this paper, the collision risk assessment in Mokpo waterways has been carried out based on the IALA recommended model, IWRAP. To evaluate the accident probabilities in Mokpo waterways, all data of vessels were collected from AIS and Radar observations data and the computer simulations were carried out. To assess the risk on the traffic, the scenario-base approach has been applied to the Mokpo waterway by using the maritime accident statics over the past 5 years.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.400-408
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• 2022

Maritime transportation is one of the most complicated and hazardous business fileds. Maritime accidents still occur despite several precautions since maritime is exposed to natural factors more than any other industries. In this harsh environment as a part of their job, marine pilots often embark/disembark to/ from vessels and confront life-endangering personal accidents. In the maritime field, several risk assessments are applied. However, all of them could not evaluate occupational accident risk for maritime pilot specifically. This paper performs specific risk analysis using the bow-tie method based on past accident records. This paper aims to qualify root causes and quantify root causes by importance level according to occurrence probability. As a result of analysis, occupational accident occurrence probability is found to be 14%, indicating that accident occurrence rate is significantly high. Hence, the probability of root causes triggering accidents and accident occurrence probability can be ascertained so that preventive measurements can be implemented. Besides theoretical achievement, this paper provides safety awareness to marine pilots, Marine Pilot Organizations, and ship crew who play a key role during marine pilots' transfer.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.61-67
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• 2010

Though "Zero Accident Campaign" is a desirable campaign for industrial accident prevention and reducing victims, the number of industrial enterprises has been decreasing abruptly in recent years. One of the reasons for this phenomenon may be attributed to irrationality of 'target accident-free time periods' established by related organizations. This study was carried out to develop a new rational scheme for the campaign. Therefore, for a numerical basis, Poisson process was introduced, and problems induced by current target periods were analyzed mathematically one by one. As a result, it was verified that current target periods were uneven since the probability that manufacturing plants get them would be different form industry to industry. To develop countermeasures, a brand new method were suggested in this research. The first characteristic was that group classification should be based upon average accident rates resulted from past several years, and the second was that adjustment probability which can make the target acquisition probability even. About the suggested method, a questionnaire survey was conducted. To make a conclusion, most manufacturing plants agreed with the suggested method such high affirmative portion that the suggested method would be expected to help promote the campaign again.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국해양정보통신학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.619-620
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• 2011

우리는 자동차를 선택할 때 교통사고의 발생 확률과 관계 없이 자동차의 성능, 디자인, 가격, 안정성 등을 최우선으로 선택한다. 본 논문에서는 자동차의 색상별로 사고가 날 확률이 가장 높은 색부터 가장 낮은 색까지를 차례로 제시한다. 이는 색에서 진출색과 후퇴색의 차이로서 사고가 나기 쉬운 색은 실제보다 멀리있는 것처럼 보이는 후퇴색이 사고가 많이 나며, 실제보다 더 가까이 있는 것처럼 보이는 진출색은 사고가 적음을 알 수 있다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.37-43
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• 2007

We use influence diagrams to describe event trees used in safety analyses of low-probability high-risk incidents. This paper shows how the branch parameters used in the event tree models can be updated by a bayesian method based on the observed counts of certain well-defined subsets of accident sequences. We focus on the analysis of the shared branch parameters, which may frequently often in the real accident initiation and propagation to more severe accident. We also suggest the way to utilize different levels of accident data to forecast low-probability high-risk accidents.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.27-36
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• 2001

This Paper proposes a new methodology for assessing the reliability of an accident management, which Is based on the reliability physics and the scheme to generate dynamic event tree. The methodology consists of 3 main steps: screening; uncertainty propagation; and probability estimation. Sensitivity analysis is used for screening the variables of significance. Latin Hypercube sampling technique and MAAP code are used for uncertainty propagation, and the dynamic event tree generation method is used for the estimation of non-success probability of implementing an accident management strategy. This approach is applied in assessing the non-success probability of implementing a cavity flooding strategy, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems during the sequence of station blackout at the reference plant.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권5호
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• pp.1051-1065
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• 2020

Safety analysis of nuclear power plant (NPP) especially in accident conditions is a basic and necessary issue for applications and commercialization of reactors. Many previous researches and development works have been conducted. However, most achievements focused on the safety reliability of primary pressure system vessels. Few literatures studied the structural safety of huge concrete structures surrounding primary pressure system, especially for the fourth generation NPP which allows existing of through cracks. In this paper, structural safety reliability of concrete structures of HTR-PM in accidental double-ended break of hot gas ducts was studied by Exceedance Probability Method. It was calculated by Monte Carlo approaches applying numerical simulations by Abaqus. Damage parameters were proposed and used to define the property of concrete, which can perfectly describe the crack state of concrete structures. Calculation results indicated that functional failure determined by deterministic safety analysis was decided by the crack resistance capability of containment buildings, whereas the bearing capacity of concrete structures possess a high safety margin. The failure probability of concrete structures during an accident of double-ended break of hot gas ducts will be 31.18%. Adding the consideration the contingency occurrence probability of the accident, probability of functional failure is sufficiently low.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2009

The types and quantities of Hazmat and Hazmat transportation are gradually increasing, keeping pace with industrialization and urbanization. At present the safety management for Hazmat transportation only considers reducing accident probability, but even when an accident involving Hazmat-carrying vehicles occurs, that is not regarded as a Hazmat-related accident if the Hazmats do not leak out from the containers carrying them. Thus the methods to reduce risk (Risk=Probability$\times$Consequence) have to be developed by incorporating accident probability and consequence. By using Geographic Information System (GIS), a technical method is invented and is automatically able to evaluate the consequence by different types of Hazmat. Thus this study analyzed the degree of risk on the links classified by the Hazmat transport pathways. In order to mitigate the degree of risk, a method of 7-step risk management on Hazmat transportation in railway industries can be suggested. (1st step: building up GIS DB, 2nd step: calculating accident probability on each link, 3rd step: calculating consequence by Hazmat types, 4th step: determination of risk, 5th step: analysis of alternative plans for mitigating the risk, 6th: measure of effectiveness against each alternative, and 7th step: action plans to be weak probability and consequence by the range recommended from ALARP). In conclusion, those 7 steps are used as a standardization method of optimum transportation routing. And to increase the efficiency of optimum transportation routing, optional route can be revise by verification.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1365-1375
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• 2009

The types and quantities of Hazmat and Hazmat transport are gradually increasing, keeping pace with industrialization and urbanization. There are currently more than 1,000 types of Hazmat,, and new types are added every year. At present the safety management for Hazmat transport only considers reducing accident probability, but even when an accident involving Hazmat-carrying vehicles occurs, that is not regarded as a Hazmat-related accident if the Hazmats do not leak out from the containers carrying them. Based on this principle, in turn., the methods to reduce risk (Risk=Probability$\times$Consequence) have to be developed by incorporating accident probability and consequence. By using Geographic Information System (GIS), a technical method was invented and is automatically able to evaluate the consequence by different types of Hazmat. Thus this study analyzed the degree of risk on the links classified by the Hazmat transport pathways. In order to mitigate the degree of risk, a method of 7-step risk management in transporting Hazmat on railway industries was suggested. The 7-step risk management is definded as the following: 1st step: buliding up GIS DB, 2nd step: calculating accident probability on each link, 3rd step: calculating consequence by Hazmat types, 4th step: determination of risk, 5th step: analysis of alternative plans for mitigating the risk, 6th: measure of effectiveness against each alternative, and 7th step: action plans to be weak probability and consequence by the range recommended from ALARP. In conclusion., those 7 steps are recommended as a standardization method in this study.