산업경영시스템학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering)

  • 제30권3호
  • /
  • Pages.37-43
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  • 2007
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  • 2005-0461(pISSN)
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  • 2287-7975(eISSN)
한국산업경영시스템학회 (Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering)
권호 표지

저 빈도 대형 사고의 예측기법에 관한 연구

Forecasting low-probability high-risk accidents

  • 양희중 (청주대학교 산업정보시스템공학과)
  • Yang, Hee-Joong (Dept. of Industrial & Information Systems Engineering, Chongju University)
  • 발행 : 2007.09.30
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초록

We use influence diagrams to describe event trees used in safety analyses of low-probability high-risk incidents. This paper shows how the branch parameters used in the event tree models can be updated by a bayesian method based on the observed counts of certain well-defined subsets of accident sequences. We focus on the analysis of the shared branch parameters, which may frequently often in the real accident initiation and propagation to more severe accident. We also suggest the way to utilize different levels of accident data to forecast low-probability high-risk accidents.

키워드

참고문헌

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