• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability of Success

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On the use of time-dependent success criteria within risk-informed analyses. Application to LONF-ATWS sequences in PWR reactors

  • Jorge Sanchez-Torrijos;Cesar Queral;Carlos Paris;Maria Jose Rebollo;Miguel Sanchez-Perea;Jose Maria Posada
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권12호
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    • pp.4601-4619
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    • 2022
  • The classical Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) does not include any time dependence explicitly. However, the success criteria (SC) could evolve during the cycle for some initiating events. In that sense, there is a type of sequence in which this time-dependency is quite important, the family of Anticipated Transient without Scram (ATWS) sequences in Pressurized Water Reactors. Therefore, a new risk-informed approach is proposed in this paper, which makes it possible to obtain the time-dependent SC evolution of the safety functions affected by the Moderator Temperature Coefficient (MTC) value. Then, the evolution of the ATWS conditional core damage probability (CCDP) could be obtained using a PSA model. To quantify the CCDP, the average values of the time-dependent failure probabilities must be computed. Finally, the comparison between the CCDP obtained through the application of the classical PSA approach and the new one makes it possible to quantify the impact of time-dependence on the SC of the headers that this new risk-informed ATWS approach can provide.

정보시스템 개발 프로젝트 성과 향상을 위한 PMO 핵심 기능과 관리수준에 관한 연구: 금융권 차세대 프로젝트 사례를 중심으로 (A Research on the Core Functions and Management Level of the PMO to Improve IS Project Performance)

  • 김상열;장윤희
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2006
  • Nowadays, IS projects are getting more complicated and large-scaled. Therefore, many researchers and practitioners have been interested in the IS development methodologies, automated tools, techniques, and TQM to improve IS performance. Latest Standish Group's research reported that after the PMO introduction, project scale became bulkier than 1 or 2 year ago, and that IS development project success probability was increased sharply by 62 percents from 37. The previous researches listed just various PMO functions. This research is to seize the core functions and management level of the PMO affecting on the IS project performance with banks which are the leading industry to accept the PMO in Korea. The activities in the categories of implementation management technology support management infrastructure management are the core functions of the PMO to affect the IS performance including schedule management quality management user and stakeholders' satisfaction. Also, the PMO management level is important for IS project success. Among the 5 levels PMI suggested, PMO can implement the project effectively at least at the third level. Korean companies which are about to introduce the PMO have to consider the PMO core functions and management level to increase the IS maturity.

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IEEE 802.11 기반 무선 멀티홉 망에서 TCP의 성능향상을 위한 새로운 경쟁 윈도우 제어 알고리즘 (New Contention Window Control Algorithm for TCP Performance Enhancement in IEEE 802.11 based Wireless Multi-hop Networks)

  • 허인;이기라;이재용;김병철
    • 대한전자공학회논문지TC
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    • 제43권9호
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문에서는 IEEE 802.11 기반 무선 멀티홉 망에서 TCP의 성능을 향상시키기 위하여 새로운 Contention Window(CW) 제어 알고리즘을 제안 하였다. 제안한 Contention Window(CW) 제어 알고리즘은 무선 멀티홉 망에서 빈번히 발생하는 hidden terminal 문제의 영향을 경감시킨다 무선 멀티홉 망에서 발생하는 대부분의 패킷 손실은 패킷의 충돌에 의한 것이 아니라 hidden terminal과 exposed terminal로 인하여 발생된다. 그러나 IEEE 802.11 DFC 알고리즘에서는 전송에 실패한 사용자의 CW를 지수형태로 증가시키므로 해당노드가 전송에 성공할 확률을 더욱 감소시킨다. 이는 전송에 성공한 노드가 연속해서 패킷 전송에 성공할 가능성을 높여주어 burst한 데이터 전송이 일어날 수 있다. 한편, 최대 재전송을 시도한 후에도 데이터를 보내지 못한 노드는 네트워크 계층에서의 경로 재전송을 시도하게 되는데 이로 인해 데이터 전송이 중지되고 성능감소가 일어날 수 있다. 이와 같은 문제를 해결하기 위하여 본 논문에서 제안한 기법에서는 backoff 재전송의 횟수를 증가시키고 적절한 CW의 크기를 설정하는 방안을 제안 하였다. Ns-2를 사용하여 체인 토폴로지와 격자 토폴로지에서의 시뮬레이션을 수행해 제안된 기법이 무선 멀티홉 망에서 TCP 성능을 향상시킴을 확인 하였다.

On the Interval Estimation of the Difference between Independent Proportions with Rare Events

  • im, Yongdai;Choi, Daewoo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.481-487
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    • 2000
  • When we construct an interval estimate of two independent proportions with rare events, the standard approach based on the normal approximation behaves badly in many cases. The problem becomes more severe when no success observations are observed on both groups. In this paper, we compare two alternative methods of constructing a confidence interval of the difference of two independent proportions by use of simulation. One is based on the profile likelihood and the other is the Bayesian probability interval. It is shown in this paper that the Bayesian interval estimator is easy to be implemented and performs almost identical to the best frequentist's method -the profile likelihood approach.

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Full response를 사용하여 중계 공격에 안전한 RFID 거리제한 프로토콜 (RFID Distance Bounding Protocol to Secure Against Relay Attack by Using Full-Response)

  • 권혜진;김순자
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.298-300
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    • 2016
  • 본고에서는 중계 공격 성공확률을 낮추기 위해 RFID 리더가 무요청(void challenge)을 보내더라도 태그가 응답하는 거리 제한 프로토콜을 제안한다. Full challenge 비율에 따른 공격 성공 확률을 분석하고, 기존의 프로토콜과 비교 분석하여 제안 프로토콜의 공격 성공 확률이 낮음을 보인다.

Cryptanalysis of the Authentication in ACORN

  • Shi, Tairong;Guan, Jie
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제13권8호
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    • pp.4060-4075
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    • 2019
  • ACORN is an authenticated encryption algorithm proposed as a candidate in the currently ongoing CAESAR competition. ACORN has a good performance on security and efficiency which has been a third-round candidate. This paper mainly concentrates on the security of ACORN under the forgery attack and the non-repudiation of ACORN. Firstly, we analyze the differential properties of the feedback function in ACRON are analyzed. By taking advantage of these properties, the forgery attacks on round-reduced ACORN are proposed with a success probability higher than $2^{-128}$ when the number of finalization rounds is less than 87. Moreover, the non-repudiation of ACRON in the nonce-reuse setting is analyzed. The known collision can be used to deny the authenticated message with probability $2^{-120}$. This paper demonstrates that ACORN cannot generate the non-repudiation completely. We believe it is an undesirable property indeed.

Successful Motor Evoked Potential Monitoring in Cervical Myelopathy : Related Factors and the Effect of Increased Stimulation Intensity

  • Shim, Hyok Ki;Lee, Jae Meen;Kim, Dong Hwan;Nam, Kyoung Hyup;Choi, Byung Kwan;Han, In Ho
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제64권1호
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    • pp.78-87
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    • 2021
  • Objective : Intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) has been widely used during spine surgery to reduce or prevent neurologic deficits, however, its application to the surgical management for cervical myelopathy remains controversial. This study aimed to assess the success rate of IONM in patients with cervical myelopathy and to investigate the factors associated with successful baseline monitoring and the effect of increasing the stimulation intensity by focusing on motor evoked potentials (MEPs). Methods : The data of 88 patients who underwent surgery for cervical myelopathy with IONM between January 2016 and June 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The success rate of baseline MEP monitoring at the initial stimulation of 400 V was investigated. In unmonitorable cases, the stimulation intensity was increased to 999 V, and the success rate final MEP monitoring was reinvestigated. In addition, factors related to the success rate of baseline MEP monitoring were investigated using independent t-test, Wilcoxon rank-sum test, chi-squared test, and Fisher's exact probability test for statistical analysis. The factors included age, sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, smoking history, symptom duration, Torg-Pavlov ratio, space available for the cord (SAC), cord compression ratio (CCR), intramedullary increased signal intensity (SI) on magnetic resonance imaging, SI length, SI ratio, the Medical Research Council (MRC) grade, the preoperative modified Nurick grade and Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score. Results : The overall success rate for reliable MEP response was 52.3% after increasing the stimulation intensity. No complications were observed to be associated with increased intensity. The factors related to the success rate of final MEP monitoring were found to be SAC (p<0.001), CCR (p<0.001), MRC grade (p<0.001), preoperative modified Nurick grade (p<0.001), and JOA score (p<0.001). The cut-off score for successful MEP monitoring was 5.67 mm for SAC, 47.33% for the CCR, 3 points for MRC grade, 2 points for the modified Nurick grade, and 12 points for the JOA score. Conclusion : Increasing the stimulation intensity could significantly improve the success rate of baseline MEP monitoring for unmonitorable cases at the initial stimulation in cervical myelopathy. In particular, the SAC, CCR, MRC grade, preoperative Nurick grade and JOA score may be considered as the more important related factors associated with the success rate of MEP monitoring. Therefore, the degree of preoperative neurological functional deficits and the presence of spinal cord compression on imaging could be used as new detailed criteria for the application of IONM in patients with cervical myelopathy.

극한확률의 개념과 Median Rank를 이용한 HOQ 도표의 일관성 검정 (Consistency Check of a House of Quality Chart by Limiting Probability Concept and Median Rank)

  • 원유웅;김기영;윤덕균
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2010
  • Six sigma has been the most influential management innovation tool in order to achieve the customer's satisfaction and keep the competition in the age of limitless competition. The success in six sigma is to find the correct CTQ (Critical to Quality). QFD (Quality function deployment) is the efficient too ever created to tie product and service design decisions directly to customer wants and needs. One of the mistakes in QFD is to analyze using an inconsistent HOQ (House of quality) chart. An inconsistent HOQ chart is one in which the information from the correlation matrix is inconsistent with that from the relationship matrix. This study presents the consistency check and inconsistency check in case of failing the consistency check. Also we propose the procedures using the Limiting Probability in correlation matrix and the Median Rank in relationship matrix in order to be consistent in HOQ chart.

RECURRENCE RELATIONS FOR HIGHER ORDER MOMENTS OF A COMPOUND BINOMIAL RANDOM VARIABLE

  • Kim, Donghyun;Kim, Yoora
    • East Asian mathematical journal
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2018
  • We present new recurrence formulas for the raw and central moments of a compound binomial random variable. Our approach involves relating two compound binomial random variables that have parameters with a difference of 1 for the number of trials, but which have the same parameters for the success probability for each trial. As a consequence of our recursions, the raw and central moments of a binomial random variable are obtained in a recursive manner without the use of Stirling numbers.

Minimum risk point estimation of two-stage procedure for mean

  • Choi, Ki-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.887-894
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    • 2009
  • The two-stage minimum risk point estimation of mean, the probability of success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials, is considered for the case where loss is taken to be symmetrized relative squared error of estimation, plus a fixed cost per observation. First order asymptotic expansions are obtained for large sample properties of two-stage procedure. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the expected sample size that minimizes the risk and to examine its finite sample behavior.

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