• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Over Countermeasure

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The Effect Analysis of Missile Warning Radar Using Probability Model (확률 모델을 이용한 미사일 경고 레이다의 효과도 분석)

  • Park, Gyu-Churl;Hong, Sung-Yong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.544-550
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    • 2009
  • To analyze the threat decision performance of MWR(Missile Warning Radar) give analysis on condition that we decide the effective threat using the POC(Probability of Over Countermeasure)/PUC(Probability of Under Countermeasure). Thus, we execute the simulation using the Monte-Carlo method to analyze effect, but the execution time of simulation took longer than we expected. In this paper, the effect analysis is proposed using the probability model to reduce the execution time of simulation. We present the setting method of parameter for probability model and the effect analysis result of MWR using the simulation. Also, we present the comparison result of simulation execution time for Monte-Carlo and probability model.

A Study on the Management Method of Agricultural reservoir Using RCP Scenario (RCP 시나리오 분석을 통한 농업용 저수지 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choo, Yeon Moon;Won, Chang Hee;Kim, Seong Ryul;Gwon, Chang Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2020
  • A reservoir is defined as an artificial facility that stores and controls water during floods and droughts. Korea has constructed and managed reservoirs all over the country to benefit farming communities. The importance of reservoirs has decreased gradually due to urbanization and the spread of tap water, but the importance of water is increasing because of the recent shortage of water and the resulting rise in the price of water resources. Therefore, this study suggests countermeasures through an analysis of the used threshold for agricultural reservoirs. To this end, the forecast of rainfall up to 2100 was first analyzed using flood estimates and RCP scenarios through rainwater data collection. The increase in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the largest increase in the probability rainfall, was calculated by adding it to the current probability rainfall, and it was predicted that the marginal height of Odong Dam would reach its limit in 2028. Therefore, as a countermeasure against this, the measures to secure effective water storage were suggested through measures, such as lowering the height of Yeosu and installing movable beams. Overall, it is expected that effective management of the reservoirs used for agriculture will be possible in the future.

Prediction of Time to Corrosion for Concrete Bridge Decks Exposed to De-Icing Chemicals (제빙화학제 살포로 인한 콘크리트 교량 바닥판의 철근부식 시작시기의 예측)

  • Lee, Chang-Soo;Yoon, In-Seok;Park, Jong-Hyok
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.606-614
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    • 2003
  • The major cause of deterioration for the concrete bridge decks exposed to de-icing chemicals would be chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion. Thus, in this paper, in order to predict time to corrosion for concrete bridge decks in the urban area, chloride concentration was measured with depth from the surface. A frequency analysis on surface chloride concentration and chloride diffusion coefficient of concrete bridge deck equals 0.192, 29.828 in the scale parameter and 7.899, 1.983 in the shape parameter of gamma distribution. The average value of surface chloride concentration equals 1.5 kg/㎥ and condenses from 1 to 2 kg/㎥ in the level of probability 70%. From the probabilistic results, it is confirmed that 26mm of minimum cover depth in order to target 20 years over is calculated. The countermeasure strategy to extend the service life of concrete bridge deck exposed to de-icing chemicals would be an effective method to increase cover depth and to place high performance concrete, which could lead to reduce the chloride diffusion coefficient and distribution range.

Conjunction Assessments of the Satellites Transported by KSLV-II and Preparation of the Countermeasure for Possible Events in Timeline (누리호 탑재 위성들의 충돌위험의 예측 및 향후 상황의 대응을 위한 분석)

  • Shawn Seunghwan Choi;Peter Joonghyung Ryu;John Kim;Lowell Kim;Chris Sheen;Yongil Kim;Jaejin Lee;Sunghwan Choi;Jae Wook Song;Hae-Dong Kim;Misoon Mah;Douglas Deok-Soo Kim
    • Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.118-143
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    • 2023
  • Space is becoming more commercialized. Despite of its delayed start-up, space activities in Korea are attracting more nation-wide supports from both investors and government. May 25, 2023, KSLV II, also called Nuri, successfully transported, and inserted seven satellites to a sun-synchronous orbit of 550 km altitude. However, Starlink has over 4,000 satellites around this altitude for its commercial activities. Hence, it is necessary for us to constantly monitor the collision risks of these satellites against resident space objects including Starlink. Here we report a quantitative research output regarding the conjunctions, particularly between the Nuri satellites and Starlink. Our calculation shows that, on average, three times everyday, the Nuri satellites encounter Starlink within 1 km distance with the probability of collision higher than 1.0E-5. A comparative study with KOMPSAT-5, also called Arirang-5, shows that its distance of closest approach distribution significantly differs from those of Nuri satellites. We also report a quantitative analysis of collision-avoiding maneuver cost of Starlink satellites and a strategy for Korea, being a delayed starter, to speed up to position itself in the space leading countries. We used the AstroOne program for analyses and compared its output with that of Socrates Plus of Celestrak. The two line element data was used for computation.