• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Kill

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A Study of the Evaluating Method for the Survivability of Aircraft during Mission Completion (임무수행 경과에 따른 항공기 생존성 평가기법 연구)

  • 윤봉수
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.166-181
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    • 1996
  • Aircraft survivability is determined by the susceptibility and the vulnerability. The aircraft susceptibility and vulnerability depend upon the hardware and software factors. Each of the hardware and software factors consisted of the qualitative and quantitative attributes varies according to the time of the mission. In order to establish the mathermatical model to analyze and evaluate the aircraft survivability, qualitative factors have to be transformed into quantitative factors. Even if many researches in the area of dynamic concept analysis and conversion of qualitative factors into the quantitative factors has been insufficient. This research enhances these insufficient area by developing a reliable aircarft survivability analysis method. The major areas of this research are as follows. First, a method for the conversion of the qualitative factors into the quantitative factors is developed by combining the Fuzzy Set Theory concept and the Delphi Technique. Second, by using the stochastic network diagram for the dynamic survivability analysis, the aircraft survivability and the probability of kill are calculated from the state probability for the situation during mission. The advantage of the analysis technique developed in this research includes ease of use and flexibility. In other words, in any given aircraft's mission execution under any variable probability density function, the developed computer program is able to analyze and evaluate the aircraft survivability.

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An Extension of MSDL for Obtaining Weapon Effectiveness Data in a Military Simulation (국방 시뮬레이션에서 무기효과 데이터 획득을 위한 MSDL의 확장)

  • Lee, Sangjin;Oh, Hyun-Shik;Kim, Dohyung;Rhie, Ye Lim;Lee, Sunju
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2021
  • Many factors such as wind direction, wind strength, temperature, and obstacles affect a munition's trajectory. Since these factors eventually determines the probability of hit and the hitting point of a target, these factors should be considered to obtain reliable weapon effectiveness data. In this study, we propose the extension of the MSDL(Military Scenario Definition Language) to reflect these factors to improve the reliability of weapon effectiveness data. Based on the existing MSDL, which has been used to set the initial condition of a military simulation scenarios, the newly identified subelements are added in ScenarioID, Environment, Organizations, and Installations as a scenario schema. Also, DamageAssessment and DesignOfExperiments element are added to make weapon effectiveness data easily. The extended MSDL enables to automatically generate the simulation scenarios that reflect various factors which affect the probability of hit or kill. This extended MSDL is applied to an integrated simulation software of weapon systems, named AddSIM version 4.0 for generation of weapon effectiveness data.

A Study on Determination of the Size of Battery Position in Consideration of Enemy Threat (적 위협을 고려한 포병진지 규모결정에 관한 연구)

  • 허화만;김충영
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.155-170
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    • 1997
  • Currently, increasing the number of artillery units requires more deployment space in FABA. However, available positions of artillery units in FEBA is limited due to mountainous terrains. Therefore, it is hard to find enough artillery position space in accordance with the field artillery mannual. This paper studies on determination of the size of battery position in order to maximize the firing-effectiveness and to minimize the enemy threat. Also, it studies the possibility of reducing the size of a battery position. The optimum size of a battery position id obtained by using Dantzig's model and Supper Quick II model which produces the probability of kill data with various input data. As a result, it shows that the size of battery position can be reduced without decreasing the firing-effectiveness.

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Dynamics of Heterogeneous Warfare

  • Park, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 1977
  • The relative importance of single-shot kill probabilities, rates of fire, weapon allocation strategies, and the size of initial force in warfare between two force with heterogeneous multiple weapon systems are considered by examining their effect on a natural measure of effectiveness, the expected number of survivors. Attrition equations are derived via stochastic formulation to represent the mean course of battle having an underlying probability distribution. It is assumed that each side uses indirect area fires. Level of intelligence activities are reflected in the availability of spontaneous information on the current enemy status. Depending on the availability of the information on the current enemy status, each participatory unit may follow 1) a prescribed attack pattern (fraction of the available units assigned to various enemy targets) or 2) an adaptive attack pattern depending on the enemy status at that time. Conditions for possible stalemate are discussed.

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Error Rate Performance of FH / MFSK Signal with space Diversity Techniques in the Environments of Interference and Rayleigh Fading (공간 다이버시티 기법을 이용하는 FH/MFSK 신호의 간섭과 레일리 페이딩 환경하에서의 오류 확률 특성)

  • Lee, Moon-Seung;Leem, Kill-Yong;Lee, Jin
    • The Proceeding of the Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 1994
  • In the environments with interference and Rayleigh fading the bit error probability equation of FH / MFSK signal has been derived and the error rate has been evaluated. And the results are shown in graphs and discussed. The degree of improvement of error rate performance has been found out in space diversity technique. From the results, we know that maximal ratio combining is very effective for Rayleigh fading and interference.

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A Study for the Possibility of Reducing the Size of Battery Position (포병진지 규모의 축소 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Go Jae-Hong;Gang Seong-Jin
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.74-85
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    • 1992
  • Increasing the number of artillery units requires more deployment space in the field operation area. However, there is limited space available in FEBA due to mountainous terrains. Therefore most artillery units cannot occupy enough deployment space which is proposed in the field artillery mannual(FM) to maximize the firing-effectiveness and to minimize the enemy threat. This paper studies the problems of reducing the size of a battery deployment space being applied currently without decreasing the firing-effectiveness of the battery. The optimum size of a battery position is obtained by using Lemus and David's allocation model and Supper Quick II Model which produces the probability of kill data with various input data. The result shows that the battery deployment space can be reduced without decreasing the firing-effectiveness in the example problem.

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Weapon-Target Assignment Using Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 무장 할당)

  • Kwon, Kyoung-Youb;Joh, Joong-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.539-544
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    • 2003
  • The weapon-target assignment problem is solved using a genetic algorithm in this paper. The weapon-target assignment is an optimization problem which minimizes damages from enemy s attack or maximizes the kill probability of targets. Genetic algorithm is applied in this paper since it usually converges to a near global optimal solution. A specific structure of genetic algorithm which is suitable for the weapon-target assignment problem is proposed. A guideline selecting associated parameters is investigated through simulations. Comparition of the proposed method with several traditional optimization techniques for the weapon-target assignment problem shows the validity of the proposed method.

A linearized curvature guidance algorithm for a passive homing missile (수동 유도 미사일 제어를 위한 선형화된 곡률 유도 알고리즘)

  • 신용준;김경근;박진배
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1996.10b
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    • pp.245-248
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    • 1996
  • This paper suggests a new concept for missile guidance control, called linearized common curvature guidance law that enhances the probability to kill a target. The proposed guidance system is composed of two switching modes; one for the midcourse guidance and the other for the terminal guidance, which is switched by a specified critical value (.epsilon.). And the system and the commands are formulated and its simulations are provided in comparison with the conventional commanded line of sight guidance algorithm. Miss distance and angle of attack are denoted as performance of parameters. This new concept, common curvature guidance algorithm, revises the navigation guidance and accompanies, various considerations.

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IP를 이용한 패트리어트 미사일 최적배치모형

  • Lee, Jae-Yeong;Jeong, Chi-Yeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.38-50
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    • 2005
  • The current Air defense missile, Nike, will be replaced by the Patriot missile in the near future. In this paper, we developed an optimal allocation model for the Patriot missile. In order to formulate the model, we applied a set covering and If model. This model considers not only weapon's characteristics and performances but also the threat of enemy aircrafts and SCUD missiles. When we apply this model, we can find the optimal location of Patriot batteries which maximizes the kill probability of enemy aircrafts and SCUD missiles attacking vital area of our forces. This model can directly be used to the decision making for the optimal military facility allocation.

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A Method for Reliability Analysis of Armored Fighting Vehicle using RBD based on Integrated Hit Probabilities of Crews and Components (통합 피격 확률 분석을 이용한 RBD 기반의 전차 신뢰도 분석 방법)

  • Hwang, Hun-Gyu;Kang, Ji-Won;Lee, Jang-Se
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.1040-1048
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the studies of integrated reliability analysis for combat systems are actively progressing. Especially, the research of integrated reliability analysis is emphasized to overcome limitations of the previous studies. In this paper, we propose a calculation technique for integrated hit probability based on front and side hit probabilities that analyzed in previous studies to improve the time-effectiveness. Also, we find out the integrated reliability of each component based on the integrated hit probability which is calculated, and we propose the method which applied the reliability block diagram technique to analyze the whole combat system of the reliability by function kills. For verifying the proposed method, we applied the proposed method to armored fighting vehicle model. The proposed method considers crew which does not considered the element in the previous study and expects to enhance the accuracy of reliability analysis and the time-effectiveness compared with the previous study.