• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.1-13
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• 1997

This research investigates a kill probability model for the performance evaluation of guided missile system, and also develops the user interface implementation for the output of the model based on the visual object-oriented programming application. This paper describes in detail the methodology for the kill probability attained by a missile warhead detonating near an airborne target. The major simulation events used in this research are missile guidance homing point, burst points, and kill mechanism(direct kill, blast kill and fragment kill). For the user interface, we also design and implement the visualization system that can show the graphic style of the kill probability attained by the model. This research will bridge the gap between the sophisticated kill probability model and users who want to see the results interactively with visualization, which can benefit many of other military systems. Some examples are shown, but these will be improved to be better with visual simulation which can visualize all the simulation process of the model.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.28-38
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• 2000

This research investigates a kill probability model for the performance evaluation of guided missile system, and also develops graphical user interface for the input and output of the model based on the visual object-oriented programming application. The major simulation events used in this research are missile guidance homing point, burst points, and kill mechanism(direct kill, blast kill and fragment kill). For the user interface, we also design and implement the visualization system that can show the graphic style of the kill probability attained by the model. The results of sample run are shown, but these could be improved to be better with visual simulation which can visulaize all the simulation process of the model.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.520-527
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• 2010

The kill probability of a missile depends on guidance error, warhead performance, and etc. In this paper, we analyzed the kill probability of anti-tank missile in a new approach. Under the condition that the missile hit the target, we studied the effect of angle of attack and impact angle. High impact angle increase the probability that the missile hits the upper armour which is relatively weaker, while high angle of attack at the impact instant decreases the effectiveness of the jet induced by the warhead. We proposed a way to increase the capability of penetration by analyzing the interrelation between impact angle and angle of attack.

• 경영과학
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.75-90
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• 2010

In this paper, we proposed new solution procedure of the air defense missile allocation problem. In order to find the optimal location of missile, we formulated a simple mathematical model maximizing the kill probability of enemy air threat including aircraft and missile. To find the Kill probability, we developed a new procedure using actual experimental data in the mathematical model. Actual experimental data mean real characteristic factor, which was acquired when the missile had been developed through missile fire experiment. The result of this study can offer practical solution for missile allocation and the methodology in this study can be used to the decision making for the optimal military facility allocation.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.200-214
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• 1996

In this paper, the problem of determining the probability of kill(or survival) of a vulnerable target by one or more missiles is considered. The general formulas are obtained for the kill or survival probability the target is killed or survival. Several well-known concepts such as those of vulnerability, lethality, multi-component target, and a general combinatorial theorem of probability are introduced and used. For the convenience in this paper, the word missile is used in a very general sense and the target is generally taken to be a point target. And, this paper, is concentrated primarily with the probabilistic aspects of the problem, also a general numerical procedures are also described. Two examples are shown to illustrate the use of some of the formulas in this study, but also illustrate a few points which may not have been sufficiently emphasized. The extension study to complete a software package will be followed.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제49권6호
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• pp.521-528
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• 2021

위협평가가 끝난 공중항적에 대해 적절한 대응무기를 할당하기 위해서는 교전예상지점을 고려하여 교전적합성을 평가하는 것이 필요하다. 논문에서는 공중항적이 교전공간을 통과할 때 공중항적의 상대거리, 접근방위각 및 고도 등 다변량 속성정보를 가지고 베이지안 정리를 적용하여 교전공간내 위치에 따른 격추확률을 계산하는 방법을 제시하였다. 계산결과 교전공간내에서의 각 지점별 격추확률값의 분포형태는 최적의 예상요격지점을 기준으로 다변량 정규분포를 따르고 있음을 확인하였고, 계산된 격추확률값은 교전공간을 통과하는 공중항적의 교전가능성 평가에 적용가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.77-85
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• 2000

The object of this paper is developing of a simulation model for performance evaluation of ai defense-gun system. We developed a three-step kill probability of areal target in case of one gun on one target considering : 1) estimating the target and warhead intercept point, 2) target vulnerability and 3) computing the kill probability. We used a Monte Carlo simulation method. This model can be used for probabilistic analysis giving results of sufficient accuracy with minimum requirement of input data. Also we developed a computer program according proposed algorithm and a set of experimental results using the proposed method are shown.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.5-14
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• 2006

The correct and opportune decision of reengaging the intercepted target is required in order to enhance the engagement performance of the surface to air missile systems that has the ability to defense or attack against various targets at the same time. The engagement efficiency and success of these systems will be largely enhanced by assigning quickly its system resources to the intercepted target and minimizing the waste of system resources for the target which is not able to attack any more. The kill-assessment algorithm has to be able to evaluate automatically whether various targets intercepted by missiles are killed or not on the basis of the reasonable confidence level. The definition of kill assessment is discussed and the kill assessment algorithm is designed reliably by using Kalman filter and a probability theory. Finally its performance is evaluated and analyzed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.458-466
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• 2012

We have developed a weapon effectiveness evaluation model for top-attack smart munitions(WEEM/TASM), which is a many on many Monte Carlo Model evaluating the effectiveness of top-attack smart munitions against armoured ground vehicles. In this model the battle is reduced to a one-sided battle situation in that the target vehicles are regarded as being stationary and passive. It can simulate the whole attack process of smart munitions from firing artillery dispenser to sensing and hitting processes after dispense. It can also calculate the probability of kill of each target and the numbers of rounds required to fulfill the degree of damage in statistical manners. In this paper, we describe the basis for our design concepts reflected in the model to simulate the weapon effectiveness of top-attack smart munitions and provide simulation results for an example case.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.97-107
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• 1977

This report examines several models, such as random or area bombardment, salvo fire and pattern fire, for the computation of target coverage when multiple rounds are fired at a target. Fractional kill of a fragment sensitive target by a fragmenting projectile as a function of the number of rounds fired is compared for two salvo fire models. The first is a standard salvo fire model in which N rounds are fired at the same aim point, in the second model single kill probability is computed for a fragment sensitive target and then fractional kill from the firing of N rounds is computed according to the assumption that the effects of each round are independent. Because the method of solution becomes very laborious for large patterns, this report gives a method only for the case of evaluating the effectiveness of stick and trianglar pattern fire. The need for the sophisticated and complicated target coverage models is demonstrated by the results of computations performed in this report.