• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.544-550
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• 2009

To analyze the threat decision performance of MWR(Missile Warning Radar) give analysis on condition that we decide the effective threat using the POC(Probability of Over Countermeasure)/PUC(Probability of Under Countermeasure). Thus, we execute the simulation using the Monte-Carlo method to analyze effect, but the execution time of simulation took longer than we expected. In this paper, the effect analysis is proposed using the probability model to reduce the execution time of simulation. We present the setting method of parameter for probability model and the effect analysis result of MWR using the simulation. Also, we present the comparison result of simulation execution time for Monte-Carlo and probability model.

• Journal for History of Mathematics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.81-98
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• 2009

Probability plays a very important role in modern society as an essential tool for solving various kinds of problems from our real life or scientific province. However, most of precedent studies on probability pointed out that many students had difficulties in understanding the nature of it, and that probability teaching method in the classroom is easily led only to calculation system, which is isolated from practical applications. In this paper, I make a close study further onto these themes, by analyzing the 8th grade textbooks through these following questions; how do the textbooks deal with calculation of probability that certain two events occur at the same time? On the practical basis, how do they make use of probability as a problem-solving instrument in both actual life and scientific fields? After these, I try to extract some features and issues of probability teaching method in current Korean textbooks.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.46-51
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• 2007

In this paper, we propose a new data clustering method using local probability and hypothesis theory. To cluster the test data set we analyze the local area of the test data set using local probability distribution and decide the candidate class of the data set using mean standard deviation and variance etc. To decide each class of the test data, statistical hypothesis theory is applied to the decided candidate class of the test data set. For evaluating, the proposed classification method is compared to the conventional fuzzy c-mean method, k-means algorithm and Discriminator analysis algorithm. The simulation results show more accuracy than results of fuzzy c-mean method, k-means algorithm and Discriminator analysis algorithm.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.455-466
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• 2013

In nested case-control studies, the most common way to make inference under a proportional hazards model is the conditional logistic approach of Thomas (1977). Inclusion probability methods are more efficient than the conditional logistic approach of Thomas; however, the epidemiology research community has not accepted the methods as a replacement of the Thomas' method. This paper promotes the inverse probability weighting method originally proposed by Samuelsen (1997) in combination with an approximate jackknife standard error that can be easily computed using existing software. Simulation studies demonstrate that this approach yields valid type 1 errors and greater powers than the conditional logistic approach in nested case-control designs across various sample sizes and magnitudes of the hazard ratios. A generalization of the method is also made to incorporate additional matching and the stratified Cox model. The proposed method is illustrated with data from a cohort of children with Wilm's tumor to study the association between histological signatures and relapses.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.3620-3629
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• 1996

In the free molecular flow range, the pumping performance of a turbomolecular pump has been predicted by calculation of the transmission probability which employs the integral method and the test particle Monte-Carlo method. Also, new approximate method combining the double stage solutions, so called double-approximation, is presented here. The calculated values of transmission probability for the single stage agree quantitatively with the previous known numerical results. For a six-stage pump, the Monte-Carlo method is employed to calculate the overall transmission probability for the entire set of blade rows. When the results of the approximate method combining the single stage solutions are compared with those of the Monte-Carlo method at dimensionless blade velocity ratio C=0.4, the previous known approximate method overestimates as much as 34% than does the Monte-Carlo method. But, the new approximate method gives more accurate results, whose relative error is 10% compared to the Monte-Carlo method, than does the previous approximate method.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.226-234
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• 2003

Put Many researcher have made much progress in studying an estimate for fracture probability of brittle materials. However, studies of the fracture probability for the elastic-plasticity have not been made yet. An estimate method for fracture probability which is grafted onto 2-parameter criterion and statistical probability analysis is not only introduced in this study, but also applied to the simple 2dimensional model and carbon steel piping to evaluate the effect of random variable.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.93-101
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• 2004

This paper is intended to assess a dynamic system reliability. Bayesian networks, however, have difficulties in their application for assessing the system reliability especially when the system consists of dependent components and the probability of failure of each component varies over time. Hence, we suggest a method for resolving the difficulties by considering a hoist system composed of two wires. Firstly, we explain the method of calculating the failure probability of the system components. Secondly, we show how to calculate the failure probability of the system for two cases that failure probability of each wire is constant and varying in time, respectively. finally, based on the calculated failure probability of the system, we infer the probability that two interesting events occur.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.55-64
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• 2004

Many researchers have made a lot of progress in studying the evaluation of fracture probability of brittle materials. However, studies of fracture probability for elastic-plasticity have not been made yet. An evaluation method for fracture probability which is grafted onto a 2-parameter criterion and statistical probability analysis is not only introduced in this study, but also applied to the simple 2-dimensional model and carbon steel piping to vealuate the effect of statistical variables.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.75-83
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• 2010

The objective of this paper is to study the discharge characteristics of pollutant loads in small watershed according to probability rainfall using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (WinHSPF). The subwatershed of Gosam reservoir watershed in Gyeonggido province was simulated and the probability rainfall of study area was estimated by recurrence interval and duration. The probability rainfalls are 156.5, 205.9 and 277.4 mm for 6 hrs, 12 hrs and 24 hrs in 10 year frequency, and each probability rainfalls is distributed by Huff's 4th quantiles method and applied to HSPF. The pollutant loads were high for initial rainfall. The concentrations of TN, TP and BOD were high as rainfall duration is shorter and rainfall intensity is higher.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.395-403
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• 2017

An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, $Q_V(r)$, of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of $Q_V(r)$ and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure.