• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
• /
• 제7권4호
• /
• pp.221-227
• /
• 2007

This paper introduces an on-line particle-filtering-based framework for failure prognosis in nonlinear, non-Gaussian systems. This framework uses a nonlinear state-space model of the plant(with unknown time-varying parameters) and a particle filtering(PF) algorithm to estimate the probability density function(pdf) of the state in real-time. The state pdf estimate is then used to predict the evolution in time of the fault indicator, obtaining as a result the pdf of the remaining useful life(RUL) for the faulty subsystem. This approach provides information about the precision and accuracy of long-term predictions, RUL expectations, and 95% confidence intervals for the condition under study. Data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 planetary carrier plate are used to validate the proposed methodology.

• 대한의용생체공학회:의공학회지
• /
• 제10권3호
• /
• pp.289-292
• /
• 1989

In this study we propose an approach based on statistical method which use the whole of saccades instead of using a few points of saccades in the quantitative analyse saccades. We computed statistical parameters such as mean velocity, quadratic mean velocity, standard duration, skewness of saccades velocity, flattness factor of saccades velocity, and mean delay by considering eye velocity as a probability density function. The results abtained are the following as ; This parameters showed the same trend like that of the main sequence. They were not biased by the systematic errors due to the arbitrary threshold. They were also less sensitive to noise, which was tested through the model simulation. So they are expected to provide a more comprehensive quantitative description of the dynamic properties of saccade in the diagnostic field.

• 한국연소학회지
• /
• 제14권2호
• /
• pp.32-41
• /
• 2009

The transported probability density function model combined with the consistent finite volume (FV) method has been applied to simulate the turbulent bluff-body reacting flows. To realistically account for the non-isotropic turbulence effects on the turbulent bluff-body reacting flows, the present PDF transport approach is based on the joint velocity- turbulent frequency-composition PDF formulation. The evolution of the fluctuating velocity of a particle is modeled by a simplified Langevin equation and the particle turbulence frequency is represented by the modified Jayesh - Pope model. Effects of molecular diffusion are represented by the interaction by exchange with the mean (IEM) mixing model. To validate this hybrid FV/PDF transport model, the numerical results are compared with experimental data for the turbulent bluff-body reacting flows.

• 한국연소학회지
• /
• 제22권4호
• /
• pp.43-50
• /
• 2017

In this study, the multi-environment probability density function(MEPDF) approach has been applied to numerically investigate Delft-Jet-in-Hot-Coflow(DJHC) turbulent flames under Moderate or Intense Low-oxygen Dilution (MILD) combustion condition. Computations are made for two different jet velocities(Re = 4100 and 8800). In terms of mean axial velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy, numerical results are in reasonably good agreements with experimental data even if there exist the noticeable deviations in downstream region. Based on numerical results, the detailed discussions are made for the essential features of the non-visible flame structure and MILD combustion processes.

• 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국연소학회 2015년도 제51회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 초록집
• /
• pp.265-266
• /
• 2015

The multi-environment PDF model coupled with flamelet generated manifolds(FGM) has been developed for a large eddy simulation of turbulent partially premixed lifted flame. This approach has a capability to realistically account for the transport and evolution of probability density function for mixture fraction and progress variable with the manageable computational burden. Using the tabulated chemistry, it is possible to track radical distributions which is important to predict autoignition process with the vitiated coflow environment. Numerical results indicate that the present yields the good agreement with experimental data in terms of mixture fraction, temperature, and species mass fractions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제25권3호
• /
• pp.331-345
• /
• 2007

Uncertainties enter a complex analysis from a variety of sources: variability, lack of data, human errors, model simplification and lack of understanding of the underlying physics. However, for many important engineering applications insufficient data are available to justify the choice of a particular probability density function (PDF). Sometimes the only data available are in the form of interval estimates which represent, often conflicting, expert opinion. In this paper we demonstrate that Bayesian estimation techniques can successfully be used in applications where only vague interval measurements are available. The proposed approach is intended to fit within a probabilistic framework, which is established and widely accepted. To circumvent the problem of selecting a specific PDF when only little or vague data are available, a hierarchical model of a continuous family of PDF's is used. The classical Bayesian estimation methods are expanded to make use of imprecise interval data. Each of the expert opinions (interval data) are interpreted as random interval samples of a parent PDF. Consequently, a partial conflict between experts is automatically accounted for through the likelihood function.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제55권9호
• /
• pp.384-391
• /
• 2006

The harmonic currents generated along with the operating speed of electrical railroad traction are very difficult to analyze because of its nonlinear characteristics. This paper therefore presents probabilistic approach for the evaluation of harmonic currents about the operating speed of the arbitrary single traction. To use probabilistic method for railroad system, PDF(Probability Density Function) using measuring data based on the realistic h 따 monic currents per operating speed is calculated. Measuring data of harmonic current per operating speed is obtained using the result data of PSCAD/EMTDC dynamic simulation based on an IAT(Intra Airport Transit) in Incheon International Airport. The means(expected values) and variances of harmonic currents of single traction also are obtained by the PDF of the operating traction speed and harmonic currents. The uncertainty of harmonic currents can be calculated through the mean and variance of PDF. The probability of harmonic currents generated with the operating of arbitrary many tractions is calculated by the convolution of functions. The harmonics of different number of tractions are systematically investigated to assess the TDD(Total Demand Distortion) for the railroad system. The calculation of TDD was carried out using Monte-Carlo Simulations(MSCs) and the results of TDD evaluation of the power quality in the IAT power feeding system.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
• /
• 제19권1E호
• /
• pp.11-16
• /
• 2007

Recently, probabilistic neural network (PNN) has been proposed to predict the compressive strength of concrete for the known effect of improvement on PNN by the iteration method. However, an empirical method has been incorporated in the PNN technique to specify its smoothing parameter, which causes significant uncertainty in predicting the compressive strength of concrete. In this study, a modified probabilistic neural network (MPNN) approach is hence proposed. The global probability density function (PDF) of variables is reflected by summing the heterogeneous local PDFs which are automatically determined by the individual standard deviation of each variable. The proposed MPNN is applied to predict the compressive strength of concrete using actual test data from a concrete company. The estimated results of MPNN are compared with those of the conventional PNN. MPNN showed better results than the conventional PNN in predicting the compressive strength of concrete and provided promising results for the probabilistic approach to predict the concrete strength by using the individual standard deviation of a variable.

• 한국음향학회지
• /
• 제37권1호
• /
• pp.31-38
• /
• 2018

2015년 5월 제주 서남부 해역에서 실시된 SAVEX15(Shallow Water Acoustic Variability EXperiment 2015) 데이터를 기반으로 내부파가 소나의 예상탐지확률(Predictive Probability of Detection, PPD)에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분석하였다. 제주 서남부 해역은 내부파, 수중음파채널 등으로 인하여 복잡한 해수 유동이 존재하는 해역이다. 본 논문에서는 확률적인 접근 방법을 통하여 소나의 성능을 예측하였다. SAVEX15 데이터 중 11 kHz ~ 31 kHz 대역대의 LFM(Linear Frequency Modulation), MLS(Maximum Length Sequence) 신호를 데이터 처리 하여 음원과 수신기가 약 2.8 km 떨어진 지점에서의 전달손실(Transmission Loss, TL)과 소음준위(Noise Level, NL) 값을 산출하였다. TL과 NL의 확률밀도함수(Probability Density Function, PDF)를 합성곱하여 신호이득에 대한 확률밀도 함수를 구하고 음원과 수신기의 수심에 따른 예상탐지확률을 산출하였다. 솔리톤 패킷과 내부조석 등의 내부파가 존재할 때 시간에 따른 예상탐지확률의 변화를 분석한 결과 각각 다른 양상으로 예상탐지확률 값에 영향을 주는 것을 확인하였다.

• 한국습지학회지
• /
• 제17권3호
• /
• pp.251-263
• /
• 2015

본 연구에서는 L-moment ratio diagram 기법과 지형정보시스템(GIS)을 동시에 활용하여 우리나라의 지속기간별 연 최대강우량의 최적확률밀도함수를 판별하는 새로운 기법을 제안하고, 결과 도출과정에 있어 발견된 연최대강우량의 통계값의 흥미로운 지형학적 특성을 살펴보았다. 이를 위하여 우리나라 기상청에서 운영하는 67개의 강우관측지점에서 관측된 강우자료의 연최대강우량을 1시간, 3시간, 6시간, 12시간, 24시간 누적시간에 대하여 산출하고, L-moment ratio diagram 기법을 활용하여 이들에 대한 최적확률밀도함수를 구한 후, 이를 관측지점에 해당하는 티센 다각형에 다른 색상으로 표현하여 그 공간적 분포를 살펴보았다. 또한, 각 후보 확률밀도함수의 적합도에 대한 지도를 작성하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다: (1) 강우의 극한값의 특성을 대표할 수 있는 통계값인 L-skewness와 L-kurtosis는 뚜렷한 공간적 경향을 띠고 있다. 특히 산맥을 포함한 우리나라의 지형적 특성에 큰 영향을 받았다. 이는 발생빈도가 높고 강도가 낮은 평상시의 강우사상뿐 만 아니라, 연최대강우량 또한 지형의 영향을 크게 받는다는 것을 의미한다; (2) 우리나라의 산악지역에서는 연최대강우량의 통계적 특성에 대한 고도의 영향이 비산악지역보다 더 크며, 고도가 높은 지역일수록 발생 빈도가 낮고 강도가 강한 강우사상이 더 자주 발생하며, 강우의 누적기간이 증가할수록 이러한 경향은 작아졌다; (3) 우리나라의 연최대강우량을 가장 잘 대변할 수 있는 확률밀도함수는 Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) 분포와 Generalized Logistic (GLO) 분포이다. 단, 남해안의 중앙지역에 대해서는 Generalized Pareto (GPA) 분포가 가장 적합한 것으로 나타났다.