• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability based maintenance

검색결과 154건 처리시간 0.034초

유지관리업무 시스템(CMMS) 구축에 따른 수력발전 및 수도설비를 위한 신뢰도 기반 유지보수(RCM) 적용 (Application of Reliability Centered Maintenance for Waterworks after Constructing CMMS (Computerized Maintenance Management System))

  • 이성훈;이종범;김정락
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2008년도 제39회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.424-425
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents application of RCM(Reliability Centered Maintenance) in waterworks system. The reliability-based probability model for predicting the failure probability is established and FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) is proposed to considering RCM. To calculate failure probability, Weibull distribution is usually used due to age related reliability. FTA is an engineering analysis which is using logic symbols. The real historical data of CMMS(Computerized Maintenance Management System) make full use of case study for waterworks system. Consequently, the RCM would be likely to permit utilities to reduce overall costs in maintenance and improve the total benefit.

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RCM 수립을 위해 발전설비의 고장확률을 고려한 확률론적 FMECA 평가 기법 (Application of FMECA with Stochastic Approach to Reliability-Centered Maintenance of Electric Power Plants in Korean Power Systems)

  • 주재명;이승혁;김진오;이효상
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2006년도 제37회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.196-197
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    • 2006
  • Preventive maintenance can avail the generation utilities to reduce cost and gain more profit in a competitive supply-side power market. So, it is necessary to perform reliability analysis on the systems in which reliability is essential. In this paper, RCM (Reliability -Centered Maintenance) analytical method is adopted using real historical failure data in Korean power plants. Therefore, the reliability -based Probability model for predicting the failures of components in the power plant is also established, and application to FMECA(Failure Mode Effects and Critical Analysis) consideration of failure probability, Based on the weighting ranking of generating equipments which status to be probability estimation by FMECA. The FMECA is an engineering analysis and a core activity performed by reliability engineers to review the effects of probable failure modes of generating equipments and assemblies of the power system on system performance. The results of this paper show that application of FMECA with stochastic approach to the preventive maintenance can efficiently avail decreasing the cost on maintenance and hence improve the total benefit.

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교량내하력 값에 기초한 초과하중 확률 계산에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Computation of Overload Probability Based on Bridge Load Rating Factor)

  • 양승이;김진성
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2003
  • 교량의 현 내하력을 평가하기 위해서 사용되는 방법으로 허용응력 평가법(ASR), 하중계수평가법 (LFR) 등의 방법 등이 사용되고 있다. 현재, 교랑 평가 값을 이용하여 이 값을 확률이론에 연결시키려는 시도들이 많이 연구되고 있다. 본 논문의 주목적은 교량의 내하력 평가값 (Rating Factor)과 확률이론을 이용하여, 과하중 확률을 구하는데 있습니다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 평가 방법들을 요약 설명하고, Weigh-in-Motion에 의해 얻은 활하중 모델을 도입하여, 교량 평가 값을 확률이론에 연결 시켰다. 활하중 모델과 교량 내하력 값을 토대로, 초과 하중 확률을 계산하고, 그 방법을 설명하였다.

클러스터 툴의 예방유지보수 스케줄링 모형 (A Preventive Maintenance Scheduling Model of the Cluster Tool)

  • 이현;박유진;허선
    • 산업공학
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2012
  • This paper considers the preventive maintenance scheduling problem of the cluster tool which is one of the most important manufacturing equipments in the next-generation semiconductor production environment. We define a random process that expresses the successive amount of chemicals accumulating inside the tool. Based on the renewal theory, we find the expected value and probability distribution of the time that the amount of accumulated chemicals exceeds a predetermined level. For a given probability that the accumulated chemicals exceeds the predetermined level we present a method to obtain the number of chamber operations to perform the preventive maintenance of that chamber. In addition, a method to get the preventive maintenance schedule for the whole cluster tool is presented. A numerical example is provided to illustrate our method.

Stochastic modelling fatigue crack evolution and optimum maintenance strategy for composite blades of wind turbines

  • Chen, Hua-Peng;Zhang, Chi;Huang, Tian-Li
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제63권6호
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    • pp.703-712
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    • 2017
  • The composite blades of offshore wind turbines accumulate structural damage such as fatigue cracking due to harsh operation environments during their service time, leading to premature structural failures. This paper investigates various fatigue crack models for reproducing crack development in composite blades and proposes a stochastic approach to predict fatigue crack evolution and to analyse failure probability for the composite blades. Three typical fatigue models for the propagation of fatigue cracks, i.e., Miner model, Paris model and Reifsnider model, are discussed to reproduce the fatigue crack evolution in composite blades subjected to cyclical loadings. The lifetime probability of fatigue failure of the composite blades is estimated by stochastic deterioration modelling such as gamma process. Based on time-dependent reliability analysis and lifecycle cost analysis, an optimised maintenance policy is determined to make the optimal decision for the composite blades during the service time. A numerical example is employed to investigate the effectiveness of predicting fatigue crack growth, estimating the probability of fatigue failure and evaluating an optimal maintenance policy. The results from the numerical study show that the stochastic gamma process together with the proper fatigue models can provide a useful tool for remaining useful life predictions and optimum maintenance strategies of the composite blades of offshore wind turbines.

터빈설비의 정비이력을 이용한 고장확률 예측 및 정비주기 설정에의 응용 (Determination of Maintenance Period and Failure Probability for Turbine Using Maintenance Record)

  • 송기욱;구재량;최우성
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제34권9호
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    • pp.1325-1330
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    • 2010
  • 터빈설비 각 중요부품의 고장은 발전정지라는 큰 파급효과를 유발하며, 예기치 못한 고장으로 설비의 이용률이 감소하게 되면 막대한 경제적 손실이 발생한다. 현재 발전설비는 제작사에서 제시한 정비주기를 기준으로 보수적인 예방정비를 실시하고 있으나, 급변하는 경영환경에서 경쟁력을 유지하기 위해서는 신뢰도를 유지하면서 정비비용을 절감하는 신뢰도 기반 정비방법을 도입 해야 할 필요가 있다. 신뢰성 있는 정비주기를 선정하기 위해서는 설비의 고장이력에 대한 면밀한 분석을 통하여 고장확률을 예측해야 한다. 본 논문은 발전설비 중 터빈 각 부품들의 고장이력을 데이터베이스로 만들고, Weibull 함수를 이용하여 최적의 정비시점을 예측하며, 정비주기를 결정하는 방법에 대하여 연구하였다.

위험도평가에 기초한 예방유지관리 계획 - 부산지하철 반송선의 설계 예 - (Development of Preventive Maintenance Plan based on PRA - Case Study of Pansong-Line Railway in Pusan -)

  • 김재원;최영민;김대성;김교훈;박향우
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.482-487
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    • 2005
  • In the most current Turn-key bidding and Alternative design, is going to establish maintenance plan along with a economical assessment (VE/LCC assessment etc). Generally, establishment of maintenance plan is based on past experiences that are decided upon sensor position and amount with analytic or mechanical control section. But, it is more reasonable that maintenance plan based on level of significance for Probabilistic Risk, with presuming damage probability assessment of structural fracture scenarios. Therefore, in this study it is considered about the technique that an improved maintenance plan of railroad structures using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) on the basis of structural reliability theory. For this, in the paper, Preventive maintenance plan based on PRA is suggested with an application example of Pansong-Line (Line number 3) railway in Pusan works that actually executed Turn-key design.

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철도 PC Beam교량의 전이확률을 이용한 상태저하 모델개발 (The Development of Condition Degradation Model of Railway PC Beam Bridge Using Transition Probability)

  • 권세곤;박미연;김두기;진남희;구소연
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2009
  • Recently, as a method of green-development and reduction of carbon dioxide emission, increased interest has been focused on a railway. Furthermore, an intensive study has been processed on capabilities of maintenance activities, economic efficiency of maintenance on rail structure and a design of railway structure as well as the development of materials. The purpose of this paper is to develop a deteriorated model of PC Beam Bridge due to timely changes and maintenance activities. Typically, there is definite difference between maintained bridges and non-maintained bridges. As a result of proper maintenance activity, a life time of a structure can be enhanced. In this study, we will research and analyze structures with ongoing maintenance. We will also process same procedures on structures without maintenance. Therefore, we can establish the significant role in a conditional change of a structure. Based on a study, we accomplish the development of a condition-deteriorated model. To develop deteriorated model of PC Beam Bridge, We apply Marcov Theory and develop a transition probability to show the life time of bridge. This study will provide a great benefit to decision making for maintenance activities on the railway bridges for future.

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Durability design and quality assurance of major concrete infrastructure

  • Gjorv, Odd E.
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.45-63
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    • 2013
  • Upon completion of new concrete structures, the achieved construction quality always shows a high scatter and variability, and in severe environments, any weaknesses and deficiencies will soon be revealed whatever durability specifications and materials have been applied. To a certain extent, a probability approach to the durability design can take the high scatter and variability into account. However, numerical solutions alone are not sufficient to ensure the durability and service life of concrete structures in severe environments. In the present paper, the basis for a probability-based durability design is briefly outlined and discussed. As a result, some performance-based durability requirements are specified which are used for quality control and quality assurance during concrete construction. The final documentation of achieved construction quality and compliance with the specified durability are key to any rational approach to more controlled and increased durability. As part of the durability design, a service manual for future condition assessment and preventive maintenance of the structure is also produced. It is such a service manual which helps provide the ultimate basis for achieving a more controlled durability and service life of the given concrete structure in the given environment.