• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Score

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Analysis of Kickers' Strategic Actions for Finishing in Penalty Shoot-outs (승부차기 상황에서의 키커의 골 결정 전략행동 분석)

  • Kim, Mun-Kyu;Lee, Yang-Gu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.341-348
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    • 2013
  • The present study aims to analyze kickers' strategic actions for finishing in penalty shoot-outs among youth soccer players ultimately to increase success rates of shoot-outs and to score a victory. Subjects were experienced 271 soccer players attending high schools located around the capital area. To determine any difference in strategic actions for finishing in penalty shoot-outs among the subjects, frequency analysis or chi-square was used for the analysis. The analysis found the following points: First, the success or failure rates of kickers in penalty shoot-outs were found to depend on subjects' experiences as soccer players. Second, in terms of kickers' shooting qualities, they were found to shoot on goal regardless of shooting positions. Third, an important factor to enhance the shoot-outs probability was found to be a strategic action through the eyes. Fourth, in view of the strategic actions prior to kickers' shooting, goalies were found to check out kickers' positions first and estimate the directions and qualities of shooting via kickers' body actions and eye lines.

Tillage boundary detection based on RGB imagery classification for an autonomous tractor

  • Kim, Gookhwan;Seo, Dasom;Kim, Kyoung-Chul;Hong, Youngki;Lee, Meonghun;Lee, Siyoung;Kim, Hyunjong;Ryu, Hee-Seok;Kim, Yong-Joo;Chung, Sun-Ok;Lee, Dae-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.205-217
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    • 2020
  • In this study, a deep learning-based tillage boundary detection method for autonomous tillage by a tractor was developed, which consisted of image cropping, object classification, area segmentation, and boundary detection methods. Full HD (1920 × 1080) images were obtained using a RGB camera installed on the hood of a tractor and were cropped to 112 × 112 size images to generate a dataset for training the classification model. The classification model was constructed based on convolutional neural networks, and the path boundary was detected using a probability map, which was generated by the integration of softmax outputs. The results show that the F1-score of the classification was approximately 0.91, and it had a similar performance as the deep learning-based classification task in the agriculture field. The path boundary was determined with edge detection and the Hough transform, and it was compared to the actual path boundary. The average lateral error was approximately 11.4 cm, and the average angle error was approximately 8.9°. The proposed technique can perform as well as other approaches; however, it only needs low cost memory to execute the process unlike other deep learning-based approaches. It is possible that an autonomous farm robot can be easily developed with this proposed technique using a simple hardware configuration.

Run expectancy and win expectancy in the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) League (한국 프로야구 경기에서 기대득점과 기대승리확률의 계산)

  • Moon, Hyung Woo;Woo, Yong Tae;Shin, Yang Woo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.321-330
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    • 2016
  • Run expectancy (RE) is the mean number of runs scored from a specific base runner/outs situation of an inning to the end of the inning. Win expectancy (WE) is the probability that a particular team will win the game at a specific game state such as half-inning, score difference, outs, and/or runners on base. In this paper, we derive RE and WE for the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) League based on six-year data from 2007 to 2012 using a Markov chain model.

Parameter estimation for the imbalanced credit scoring data using AUC maximization (AUC 최적화를 이용한 낮은 부도율 자료의 모수추정)

  • Hong, C.S.;Won, C.H.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.309-319
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    • 2016
  • For binary classification models, we consider a risk score that is a function of linear scores and estimate the coefficients of the linear scores. There are two estimation methods: one is to obtain MLEs using logistic models and the other is to estimate by maximizing AUC. AUC approach estimates are better than MLEs when using logistic models under a general situation which does not support logistic assumptions. This paper considers imbalanced data that contains a smaller number of observations in the default class than those in the non-default for credit assessment models; consequently, the AUC approach is applied to imbalanced data. Various logit link functions are used as a link function to generate imbalanced data. It is found that predicted coefficients obtained by the AUC approach are equivalent to (or better) than those from logistic models for low default probability - imbalanced data.

Developing of Text Plagiarism Detection Model using Korean Corpus Data (한글 말뭉치를 이용한 한글 표절 탐색 모델 개발)

  • Ryu, Chang-Keon;Kim, Hyong-Jun;Cho, Hwan-Gue
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.231-235
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    • 2008
  • Recently we witnessed a few scandals on plagiarism among academic paper and novels. Plagiarism on documents is getting worse more frequently. Although plagiarism on English had been studied so long time, we hardly find the systematic and complete studies on plagiarisms in Korean documents. Since the linguistic features of Korean are quite different from those of English, we cannot apply the English-based method to Korean documents directly. In this paper, we propose a new plagiarism detecting method for Korean, and we throughly tested our algorithm with one benchmark Korean text corpus. The proposed method is based on "k-mer" and "local alignment" which locates the region of plagiarized document pairs fast and accurately. Using a Korean corpus which contains more than 10 million words, we establish a probability model (or local alignment score (random similarity by chance). The experiment has shown that our system was quite successful to detect the plagiarized documents.

A Remote Sensed Data Combined Method for Sea Fog Detection

  • Heo, Ki-Young;Kim, Jae-Hwan;Shim, Jae-Seol;Ha, Kyung-Ja;Suh, Ae-Sook;Oh, Hyun-Mi;Min, Se-Yun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2008
  • Steam and advection fogs are frequently observed in the Yellow Sea from March to July except for May. This study uses remote sensing (RS) data for the monitoring of sea fog. Meteorological data obtained from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station provided a valuable information for the occurrence of steam and advection fogs as a ground truth. The RS data used in this study were GOES-9, MTSAT-1R images and QuikSCAT wind data. A dual channel difference (DCD) approach using IR and shortwave IR channel of GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R satellites was applied to detect sea fog. The results showed that DCD, texture-related measurement and the weak wind condition are required to separate the sea fog from the low cloud. The QuikSCAT wind data was used to provide the wind speed criteria for a fog event. The laplacian computation was designed for a measurement of the homogeneity. A new combined method, which includes DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and laplacian computation, was applied to the twelve cases with GOES-9 and MTSAT-1R. The threshold values for DCD, QuikSCAT wind speed and laplacian are -2.0 K, $8m\;s^{-1}$ and 0.1, respectively. The validation results showed that the new combined method slightly improves the detection of sea fog compared to DCD method: improvements of the new combined method are $5{\sim}6%$ increases in the Heidke skill score, 10% decreases in the probability of false detection, and $30{\sim}40%$ increases in the odd ratio.

A Study on the Factors for Strengthening Competitiveness of CM Projects based on Balanced Score Card (BSC기반 건설사업관리프로젝트 수주역량요인 연구)

  • Beak, Nak Kyu;Lee, Dong Heon;Lim, Hyoung Chul
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 2019
  • In domestic construction industry, CM companies perform overall project management tasks such as planning, designing, construction management, evaluation, maintenance for construction projects. However, even with these tasks, as competition becomes more fierce and probability dependence is high, lots of CM companies are experiencing difficulties of securing and preparing indicators for order competence reinforcement. This study examines domestic business condition and task analysis. Also Competence factors are derived through institutional and legal investigation, and review of existing literature. The derived competence factors are focused on practical factors by interviewing with experts. competence factors for each type were classified into BSC's four perspectives(Finance / Customers / Internal processes / Learning and Growth) and surveyed. Based on the results of the survey, the priorities of competence factors that companies should focus on were derived. The purpose of this study is to contribute on making an indicator that can be utilized on business activities through priority analysis of competence factors for order competitiveness reinforcement of CM companies.

A probabilistic framework for drought forecasting using hidden Markov models aggregated with the RCP8.5 projection

  • Chen, Si;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.197-197
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    • 2016
  • Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

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Risk factors limiting first service conception rate in dairy cows and their economic impact

  • Kim, Ill Hwa;Jeong, Jae Kwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.519-526
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    • 2019
  • Objective: We determined the risk factors limiting first service conception (FSC) rate in dairy cows and their economic impact. Methods: Data were collected from 790 lactations regarding cow parity, peri- and postpartum disorders, body condition score (BCS), reproductive performance, and expenses associated with reproductive management (treatment, culling, and others). Initially, we identified the risk factors limiting FSC rate in dairy cows. Various biological and environmental factors, such as herd, cow parity, BCS at 1 month postpartum and first artificial insemination (AI), resumption of cyclicity within 1 month of calving, year, AI season, insemination at detected estrus or timed AI, peri- and postpartum disorders, and calving to first AI interval, were evaluated. Next, we evaluated the economic impact of the success or failure of FSC by comparing the expense associated with reproductive management until conception between cows that did or did not conceive at their first service. Results: Cows with BCS <3.0 had a lower probability of conceiving at first insemination (odds ratio [OR] = 0.64, p<0.05) than cows with $BCS{\geq}3.0$. Cows inseminated during summer were less likely to conceive (OR = 0.44, p<0.001) than cows inseminated during spring. Cows with peri- or postpartum disorders were less likely to conceive (OR = 0.55, p<0.001) than cows without disorders. Survival curves generated using MedCalc showed an 81 day extension in the mean interval between calving and conception in cows that failed to conceive over those that did conceive at first insemination. Cows failing conceive required additional expenditure on reproductive treatment ($55.40) and other management ($567.00) than cows that conceived at first insemination. Conclusion: Lower BCS, hot weather at first insemination, and peri- and postpartum disorders are risk factors limiting FSC, which result in an economic loss of $622.40 per dairy cow.

Tweets analysis using a Dynamic Topic Modeling : Focusing on the 2019 Koreas-US DMZ Summit (트윗의 타임 시퀀스를 활용한 DTM 분석 : 2019 남북미정상회동 이벤트를 중심으로)

  • Ko, EunJi;Choi, SunYoung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.308-313
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    • 2021
  • In this study, tweets about the 2019 Koreas-US DMZ Summit were collected along with a time sequence and analyzed by a sequential topic modeling method, Dynamic Topic Modeling(DTM). In microblogging services such as Twitter, unstructured data that mixes news and an opinion about a single event occurs at the same time on a large scale, and information and reactions are produced in the same message format. Therefore, to grasp a topic trend, the contextual meaning can be found only by performing pattern analysis reflecting the characteristics of sequential data. As a result of calculating the DTM after obtaining the topic coherence score and evaluating the Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA), 30 topics related to news reports and opinions were derived, and the probability of occurrence of each topic and keywords were dynamically evolving. In conclusion, the study found that DTM is a suitable model for analyzing the trend of integrated topics in a specific event over time.