• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Rainfall

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Study on Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Summertime Precipitation over Korean Peninsula (여름철 한반도 강수의 시·공간적 특성 연구)

  • In, So-Ra;Han, Sang-Ok;Im, Eun-Soon;Kim, Ki-Hoon;Shim, JaeKwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.159-171
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of summertime (June-August) precipitation over Korean peninsula, using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)is Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data for the period of 1973-2010 and Automatic Weather System (AWS) data for the period of 1998-2010.The authors looked through climatological features of the summertime precipitation, then examined the degree of locality of the precipitation, and probable precipitation amount and its return period of 100 years (i.e., an extreme precipitation event). The amount of monthly total precipitation showed increasing trends for all the summer months during the investigated 38-year period. In particular, the increasing trends were more significant for the months of July and August. The increasing trend of July was seen to be more attributable to the increase of precipitation intensity than that of frequency, while the increasing trend of August was seen to be played more importantly by the increase of the precipitation frequency. The e-folding distance, which is calculated using the correlation of the precipitation at the reference station with those at all other stations, revealed that it is August that has the highest locality of hourly precipitation, indicating higher potential of localized heavy rainfall in August compared to other summer months. More localized precipitation was observed over the western parts of the Korean peninsula where terrain is relatively smooth. Using the 38-years long series of maximum daily and hourly precipitation as input for FARD2006 (Frequency Analysis of Rainfall Data Program 2006), it was revealed that precipitation events with either 360 mm $day^{-1}$ or 80 mm $h^{-1}$ can occur with the return period of 100 years over the Korean Peninsula.

Simulation of Hourly Precipitation using Nonhomogeneous Markov Chain Model and Derivation of Rainfall Mass Curve using Transition Probability (비동질성 Markov 모형에 의한 시간강수량 모의 발생과 천이확률을 이용한 강우의 시간분포 유도)

  • Choi, Byung-Kyu;Oh, Tae-Suk;Park, Rae-Gun;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.265-276
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    • 2008
  • The observed data of enough period need for design of hydrological works. But, most hydrological data aren't enough. Therefore in this paper, hourly precipitation generated by nonhomogeneous Markov chain model using variable Kernel density function. First, the Kernel estimator is used to estimate the transition probabilities. Second, wet hours are decided by transition probabilities and random numbers. Third, the amount of precipitation of each hours is calculated by the Kernel density function that estimated from observed data. At the results, observed precipitation data and generated precipitation data have similar statistic. Also, rainfall mass curve is derived by calculated transition probabilities for generation of hourly precipitation.

Development of GK2A Convective Initiation Algorithm for Localized Torrential Rainfall Monitoring (국지성 집중호우 감시를 위한 천리안위성 2A호 대류운 전조 탐지 알고리즘 개발)

  • Park, Hye-In;Chung, Sung-Rae;Park, Ki-Hong;Moon, Jae-In
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.489-510
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose an algorithm for detecting convective initiation (CI) using GEO-KOMPSAT-2A/advanced meteorological imager data. The algorithm identifies clouds that are likely to grow into convective clouds with radar reflectivity greater than 35 dBZ within the next two hours. This algorithm is developed using statistical and qualitative analysis of cloud characteristics, such as atmospheric instability, cloud top height, and phase, for convective clouds that occurred on the Korean Peninsula from June to September 2019. The CI algorithm consists of four steps: 1) convective cloud mask, 2) cloud object clustering and tracking, 3) interest field tests, and 4) post-processing tests to remove non-convective objects. Validation, performed using 14 CI events that occurred in the summer of 2020 in Korean Peninsula, shows a total probability of detection of 0.89, false-alarm ratio of 0.46, and mean lead-time of 39 minutes. This algorithm can be useful warnings of rapidly developing convective clouds in future by providing information about CI that is otherwise difficult to predict from radar or a numerical prediction model. This CI information will be provided in short-term forecasts to help predict severe weather events such as localized torrential rainfall and hail.

A Study of the Automatic Operation Performance of a Pump Station using Resilience Considering Residual Flows (잔류유량 기반 복원력 지수를 통한 빗물펌프장 자동운영 성능 검토)

  • Kim, Young Nam;Lee, Eui Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.793-802
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    • 2022
  • Non-structural improvements to urban drainage systems are necessary to overcome the elevated levels of urban flood damage. This study proposed a type of automatic pump/gate operation technology for urban pump stations that takes reservoir inflows and river water levels into account and its performance is compared with the current operation using the concept of residual flow-based resilience. The proposed automatic operation relies on three pump operations and two gate operations. The water depth at the monitoring node was used for the pump operation, and the monitoring node was selected in consideration of the first overflow node and the maximum overflow node. The target area is the Daegu Bisan urban pump station, and the rainfall data consisted of probability rainfall sets with durations of 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 90 minutes and 120 minutes, and frequencies of 30, 50, and 70 years. As a result of the application of the proposed operation, differences in the resilience between the automatic operation and the current operation were at least 5.20E-05 with a maximum of 8.07E-04. The longer the duration is, the greater the difference in the resilience.

Analysis of the Direct Runoff by Using the Geomorpologic Parameters of Watersheds (유역(流域)의 지상인자(地上因子)를 이용(利用)한 홍수량(洪水量) 해석(解析))

  • Suh, Seung Duk;Lee, Seung Yook
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.7
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 1989
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the flood discharge and peak time by the SCS method and the probability method using the geomorpologic parameters obtained from the topographic maps following the law of stream classifying and, ordering by Horton and Strahler. The SCS method and the probability method are used in estimating the times to peak and the flood discharges at An-dong, Im-ha, and Sun-san basins in the Nakdong River system. The results obtained are as follows : 1. The range of the values of the area ratio, the bifurcation ratio and the length ratio agree with those of natural streams presented by Horton and Strahler. 2. Comparisons of the probability method and observed values show that small relative errors of 0-7% of flood discharge, and 0-2hr, difference in time to peak respectivly. But the SCS method shows that large relative errors of 10-40% of flood discharge, and 0-4hr, difference in time to peak. 3. When the rainfall intensity is large, the error of flood discharge estimated by using the probability method is relativly small.

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A Statistical Study Evaporation tn DAEGU Area (대구지방의 증발량에 대한 통계학적 연구)

  • 김영기
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.3160-3169
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    • 1973
  • Rainfall, evaporation, and permeability of water are the most important factors in determining the demand of water. The Daegu area has only a meteorologi observatory and there is not sufficient data for adapting the advanced method for derivation of the estimated of evaporation in the Daegu area. However, by using available data, the writer devoted his great effort in deriving the most reasonable formula applicable to the Daegu area and it is adaptable for various purposes such as industry and estimation of groundwater etc. The data used in this study was the monthly amount of evaporation of the Daegu area for the past 13 years(1960 to 1970). A year can be divided into two groups by relative degrees of evaporation in this area: the first group (less evaporation) is January, February, March, October, November, and December, and the second (more evaporation) is April, May, June, July, August, and September. The amount of evaporation of the two groups were statistically treated by the theory of probability for derivation of estimated formula of evaporation. The formula derved is believed to fully consider. The characteristic hydrological environment of this area as the following shows: log(x+3)=0.8963+0.1125$\xi$..........(4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) log(x-0.7)=0.2051+0.3023$\xi$..........(1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 month) This study obtained the above formula of probability of the monthly evaporation of this area by using the relation: $F_(x)=\frac{1}{{\surd}{\pi}}\int\limits_{-\infty}^{\xi}e^{-\xi2}d{\xi}\;{\xi}=alog_{\alpha}({\frac{x_0+b'}{x_0+b})\;(-b<x<{\infty})$ $$log(x_0+b)=0.80961$ $$\frac{1}{a}=\sqrt{\frac{2N}{N-1}}\;Sx=0.1125$$ $$b=\frac{1}{m}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{m}b_s=3.14$$ $$S_x=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{N}\{log(x_i+b)\}^2-\{log(x_i+b)\}^2}=0.0791$$ (4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) This formula may be advantageously applied to estimation of evaporation in the Daegu area. Notation for general terms has been denoted by following: $W_(x)$: probability of occurance. $$W_(x)=\int_x^{\infty}f(x)dx$$ P : probability $$P=\frac{N!}{t!(N-t)}{F_i^{N-{\pi}}(1-F_i)^l$$ $$F_{\eta}:\; Thomas\;plot\;F_{\eta}=(1-\frac{n}{N+1})$$ $X_l\;X_i$: maximun, minimum value of total number of sample size(other notation for general terms was used as needed)

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Development and Evaluation of the High Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System in the Korea Meteorological Administration (기상청 고해상도 국지 앙상블 예측 시스템 구축 및 성능 검증)

  • Kim, SeHyun;Kim, Hyun Mee;Kay, Jun Kyung;Lee, Seung-Woo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2015
  • Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

Probabilistic Assessment of Drought Characteristics based on Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (동질성 은닉 마코프 모형을 적용한 가뭄특성의 확률론적 평가)

  • Yoo, Ji-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong;Lee, Seung-Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2014
  • Several studies regarding drought indices and criteria have been widely studied in the literature. If one defines the onset, severity, and end of droughts, in general, a certain threshold needs to be set to assess the drought events. However, the uncertainty associated with the threshold is a critical problem in drought analysis. To take full advantage of the inherent features in the rainfall series, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based probabilistic drought analysis was proposed rather than using the existing threshold based analysis. As a result, the proposed HMM based probabilistic drought analysis scheme shows better performance in terms of defining drought state and understanding underlying characteristics of the drought. In addition, the HMM based approach is capable of quantifying the uncertainties associated with the classifying meteorological drought condition in a systematic way.

Calculation of future rainfall scenarios to consider the impact of climate change in Seoul City's hydraulic facility design standards (서울시 수리시설 설계기준의 기후변화 영향 고려를 위한 미래강우시나리오 산정)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Lee, Taesam;Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.419-431
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    • 2021
  • In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

Estimation of Drought Rainfall by Regional Frequency Analysis Using L and LH-Moments (II) - On the method of LH-moments - (L 및 LH-모멘트법과 지역빈도분석에 의한 가뭄우량의 추정 (II)- LH-모멘트법을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Yoon , Seong-Soo;Maeng , Sung-Jin;Ryoo , Kyong-Sik;Joo , Ho-Kil;Park , Jin-Seon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2004
  • In the first part of this study, five homogeneous regions in view of topographical and geographically homogeneous aspects except Jeju and Ulreung islands in Korea were accomplished by K-means clustering method. A total of 57 rain gauges were used for the regional frequency analysis with minimum rainfall series for the consecutive durations. Generalized Extreme Value distribution was confirmed as an optimal one among applied distributions. Drought rainfalls following the return periods were estimated by at-site and regional frequency analysis using L-moments method. It was confirmed that the design drought rainfalls estimated by the regional frequency analysis were shown to be more appropriate than those by the at-site frequency analysis. In the second part of this study, LH-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA) distributions were accomplished to get optimal probability distribution. Design drought rainfalls were estimated by both at-site and regional frequency analysis using LH-moments and GEV distribution, which was confirmed as an optimal one among applied distributions. Design rainfalls were estimated by at-site and regional frequency analysis using LH-moments, the observed and simulated data resulted from Monte Carlotechniques. Design drought rainfalls derived by regional frequency analysis using L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments (LH-moments) method have shown higher reliability than those of at-site frequency analysis in view of RRMSE (Relative Root-Mean-Square Error), RBIAS (Relative Bias) and RR (Relative Reduction) for the estimated design drought rainfalls. Relative efficiency were calculated for the judgment of relative merits and demerits for the design drought rainfalls derived by regional frequency analysis using L-moments and L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments applied in the first report and second report of this study, respectively. Consequently, design drought rainfalls derived by regional frequency analysis using L-moments were shown as more reliable than those using LH-moments. Finally, design drought rainfalls for the classified five homogeneous regions following the various consecutive durations were derived by regional frequency analysis using L-moments, which was confirmed as a more reliable method through this study. Maps for the design drought rainfalls for the classified five homogeneous regions following the various consecutive durations were accomplished by the method of inverse distance weight and Arc-View, which is one of GIS techniques.