• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.9
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• pp.789-799
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to suggest an approach for estimating probability rainfall using climate scenario data based GCM and to analyze changes of flood characteristics like probability rainfall, flood quantile and flood water level under climate change. The study area is Namhan river basin. Probability rainfalls which is taken 1440 minutes duration and 100-year frequency are estimated by using IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario for each time period (S0: 1971~2000; S1: 2011~2040; S2: 2041~2070; S3: 2071~2100). Flood quantiles are estimated for 17 subbasins and flood water level is analyzed in the main channel from the downstream of Chungju dam to the upstream of Paldang dam. Probability rainfalls, peak flow from flood quantile and water depth from flood water level have increase rate in the range of 13.0~15.1 % based S0 (142.1 mm), 29.1~33.5% based S0 ($20,708\;m^3/s$), 12.6~13.6% in each S1, S2 and S3 period, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.27-35
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• 2017

This research was to elucidate the generation method of daily precipitation data from monthly data. We applied a combined method of Markov chain and gamma distribution function using 4 specific parameters of ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$, p(W/W) and p(W/D) for generation of daily rainfall data using daily precipitation data for the past 30 years which were collected from the country's 23 meteorological offices. Four parameters, applied to use for the combination method, were calculated by maximum likelihood method in location of 23 sites. There are high correlations of 0.99, 0.98 and 0.98 in rainfall days, rainfall probability and mean amount of daily rainfall between measured and simulated data in case of those parameters. In case of using parameters estimated from monthly precipitation, correlation coefficients in rainfall days, rainfall probability and mean amount of daily rainfall are 0.84, 0.83 and 0.96, respectively. We concluded that a combination method with parameter estimation from monthly precipitation data can be applied, in practical purpose such as assessment of climate change in agriculture and water resources, to get daily precipitation data in Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1147-1151
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• 2009

In this study, we address the problem of producing probability forecasts of summer seasonal rainfall, on the basis of Hindcast experiments from a ensemble of GCMs(cwb, gcps, gdaps, metri, msc_gem, msc_gm2, msc_gm3, msc_sef and ncep). An advanced Hierarchical Bayesian weighting scheme is developed and used to combine nine GCMs seasonal hindcast ensembles. Hindcast period is 23 years from 1981 to 2003. The simplest approach for combining GCM forecasts is to weight each model equally, and this approach is referred to as pooled ensemble. This study proposes a more complex approach which weights the models spatially and seasonally based on past model performance for rainfall. The Bayesian approach to multi-model combination of GCMs determines the relative weights of each GCM with climatology as the prior. The weights are chosen to maximize the likelihood score of the posterior probabilities. The individual GCM ensembles, simple poolings of three and six models, and the optimally combined multimodel ensemble are compared.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.617-623
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• 2005

Forestry and agricultural land uses constitute 85% of Korea and these land uses are typically mixed in many watersheds. Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) concentration is a primary factor for managing water qualities of the water resources in Korea. BOD loadings from diffuse sources, however, not well monitored yet. This study aims to assess BOD loadings from diffuse sources and their affecting factors to conserve quality of water resources. Event Mean Concentration (EMC) of BOD was calculated based on the monitoring data of forty rainfall events at four agricultural-forestry watersheds. Exceedence cumulative probability of BOD EMCs were plotted to show agricultural activities in a watershed impacts on the magnitude of EMCs. Prediction equation for each rainfall event was proposed to estimate BOD EMCs: $EMC_{BOD}(mg/L)=EXP(0.413+0.0000001157{\times}$(discharged runoff volume in $m^3$)+0.018${\times}$(ratio of agricultural land use to total watershed area).

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.61-68
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• 2017

PURPOSES : A complete signal system is not always the best solution for improving traffic operation efficiency at intersections. An alternative solution is to use a Protected Permitted Left Turn (PPLT) operation method. However, the PPLT method needs to be developed after a detailed study of driving tendencies, most notably the gap acceptance behavior, for successful implementation. In this study, the gap acceptance behavior was investigated under various variables and weather conditions, especially under rain, and the results were compared to the case of normal weather. The results of this study will be helpful in introducing the PPLT method, and are important considering the tendency of attempting unprotected left turns that is extremely common in Korean drivers. METHODS : Data was obtained by analyzing traffic footage at four intersections on a day when the precipitation was greater than 5 mm/h. The collected data was classified into seven variables for statistical analysis. Finally, we used logistic regression analysis to develop a probability distribution model. RESULTS : Gap, traffic volume, and the number of conflicting lanes were factors affecting the gap acceptance behavior of unprotected left turns under rainy conditions. CONCLUSIONS : The probability of attempting unprotected left turns is higher for larger gaps. On the other hand, the probability of attempting unprotected left turns decreases with an increase in the traffic volume. Finally, an increase in the number of conflict lanes leads to a decrease in the probability of attempting unprotected left turns.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.915-924
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• 2021

In this study, the probability of exceeding capacity for 4 check dams in Muju mountain region have been estimated. From the results, optimum design of check dam and safety according to wild fire have been discussed. Reliability model has been established by using MSDPM for calculating debris yield to estimate the probability of exceeding capacity of check dam. Probability of exceeding capacity for 4 check dams has been estimated according to maximum rainfall intensity of return periods (10year, 50year, 100year, and 200year). It was found that 1 check dam of Samga-ri basin and 1 check dam of Jeungsan-ri basin were designed by overestimation and 61% and 47% of capacity should be reduced, respectively. Furthermore, probability of exceeding capacity according to burned area has been estimated and compared. It was found that check dam of Sanga-ri basin is the weakest for the wild fire effect in this study area.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.37-51
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• 2018

The slope failure due to the rainfall infiltration occurs frequently in Korea, since the depth of the weathered residual soil layer is shallow in mountainous region. Depth of the failure surface is shallow and tends to pass near the interface between impermeable bedrock and soil layer. Soil parameters that have a significant impact on the instability of unsaturated slopes due to rainfall infiltration inevitably include large uncertainties. Therefore, this study proposes a probabilistic analysis procedure by Monte Carlo Simulation which considers the hydraulic characteristics and strength characteristics of soil as random variables in order to predict slope failure due to rainfall infiltration. The Green-Ampt infiltration model was modified to reflect the boundary conditions on the slope surface according to the rainfall intensity and the boundary condition of the shallow impermeable bedrock was introduced to predict the stability of unsaturated soil slope with shallow bedrock under constant rainfall intensity. The results of infiltration analysis were used as inputs of infinite slope analysis to calculate the safety factor. The proposed analysis method can be used to calculate the time-dependent failure probability of soil slope due to rainfall infiltration.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.4B
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• pp.367-377
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• 2010

In this study, we considered annual maximum rainfall data from 56 weather stations for rainfall frequency analysis using SIR(Sampling Important Resampling) algorithm and Bootstrap method. SIR algorithm is resampling method considering weight in extreme rainfall sample and Bootstrap method is resampling method without considering weight in rainfall sample. Therefore we can consider the difference between SIR and Bootstrap method may be due to the climate change. After the frequency analysis, we compared the results. Then we derived the results which the frequency based rainfall obtained using the data from SIR algorithm has the values of -10%~60% of the rainfall obtained using the data from Bootstrap method.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.S1
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• pp.124-129
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• 2000

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.7
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• pp.591-599
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• 2011

The rainfall intensity is a very essential factor which must be considered for the estimation of the time of concentration. The rainfall intensity, however, is not fully considered for the estimation of the time of concentration due to the complexity of the equation of rainfall intensity. To increase accuracy of the time of concentration, the rainfall intensity and return period were included in the derivation of the time of concentration equations in this study. The equation of rainfall intensity is Sherman type and the regional coefficients were estimated from the rainfall intensity readings on the probability rainfall maps published by Ministry of Construction and Transportation. For simple calculation of rainfall intensities, the contour maps were drawn that expresses coefficients of the Sherman type equation. By substituting the Sherman type equation of rainfall intensity in the equation of the time of concentration, a relatively simple equation with no repeated calculation has been derived. From the study results, in order to include the influence of the rainfall intensity for the estimation of the time of concentration, it is highly recommended that the Sherman type equation of rainfall intensity be used. When one knows a location in Korea and a return period, he can estimate the coefficients of the rainfall intensity equation and calculate the time of concentration considering the rainfall intensity.