• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.993-999
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• 2004

The estimation of fatigue life at the design stage of membrane type LNG tank is very important in order to arrive at feasible and cost effective solutions considering the total lifetime of the tank. In this study, the practical procedure of fatigue life prediction by use of cumulative damage factors based on Miner-Palmgren hypothesis and probability density function has been shown with the corner region of Gaz Transport Membrane type LNG tank being used as an example. In particular the parameters of Weibull distribution that determine the stress spectrum are discussed. The main results obtained from this study are as follows: 1. The recommended value for the shape parameter of Weibull distribution for the LNG tank is 1.1 in case of using the direct calculation method proposed in this study. 2. The calculated fatigue life is influenced by the shape parameter of Weibull distribution and stress block. The safe fatigue design can be achieved by using higher value of shape parameter and the stress blocks divided into more stress blocks.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.61-68
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• 2004

Necessity to address engineering system uncertainties in design processes has long been acknowledged. To obtain quality of product, a safety factor is traditionally used by many design engineers due to its easy of use and comprehension. However, the safety factor approach often yields either conservative or unreliable designs, since it ignores the type of probability distribution and the mechanism of uncertainty propagation from the input to the output. For a consistent reliability-based design, two fundamental issues must be investigated thoroughly. First, the design-decision process that clearly identifies a mechanism of uncertainty propagation under system uncertainties needs to be developed, which must be an efficient and accurate process. To identify the mechanism more effectively, an adaptive probability analysis is proposed by adaptively setting probability levels through a posteriori error estimation. The second is to develop the design process that not only yields a high quality design but also a cost-effective optimum design from manufacturing point of view. As a result, a response surface methodology is specially developed for RBDO, thus enhancing numerical challenges of efficiency and complicatedness. Side crashworthiness application is used to demonstrate the integrated design process for product and manufacturing process design.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.65-73
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the key factors affecting tax compliance among Vietnamese firms in Vietnam. We employ both qualitative and quantitative research methods. Qualitative research has been carried out through focus group discussions with ten chief accountants and tax officers. Quantitative research has been conducted through interviews with 200 firms (chief accountants or financial directors) in Vietnam. Analysis of the model includes the following stages: (i) Cronbach's test for reliability of the scale, (ii) exploratory factor analysis (EFA), (iii) confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and (iv) structural equation model (SEM). The results of the research show that voluntary tax compliance is directly affected by the three factors of audit probability, corporate reputation and business ownership. The probability of audit and severity of sanctions have the strongest impact on tax compliance. Therefore, the tax authorities need to strengthen the inspection of tax declarations, tax payments and tax refunds of firms. The paper confirms that enforced tax compliance is directly affected by the three factors of audit probability, sanction severity and social norms. Voluntary compliance and compulsory compliance have an effect on tax compliance, though voluntary compliance has a more powerful impact.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.137-147
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• 2017

A water treatment utility in South Korea operates a large system of pressurized hollow fiber membrane (PHFM) modules. The optimal selection of membrane module for the full scale plant was critical issue and carried out using Risk-based Life Cycle Cost (RbLCC) analysis based on the historical data of operation and maintenance. The RbLCC analysis was used in the process of decision-making for replacing aged modules. The initial purchasing cost and the value at risk during operation were considered together. The failure of modules occurs stochastically depending on the physical deterioration with usage over time. The life span of module was used as a factor for the failure of Poisson's probability model, which was used to obtain the probability of failure during the operation. The RbLCC was calculated by combining the initial cost and the value at risk without its warranty term. Additionally, the properties of membrane were considered to select the optimum product. Results showed that the module's life span in the system was ten years (120 month) with safety factor. The optimum product was selected from six candidates membrane for a full scale water treatment facility. This method could be used to make the optimum and rational decision for the operation of membrane water purification facility.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.655-667
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• 2018

To evaluate the stability of a rock slope with one pre-exiting vertical crack, this paper performs corresponding probabilistic stability analysis. The existence of cracks is generally ignored in traditional deterministic stability analysis. However, they are widely found in either cohesive soil or rock slopes. The influence of one pre-exiting vertical crack on a rock slope is considered in this study. The safety factor, which is usually adopted to quantity the stability of slopes, is derived through the deterministic computation based on the strength reduction technique. The generalized Hoek-Brown (HB) failure criterion is adopted to characterize the failure of rock masses. Considering high nonlinearity of the limit state function as using nonlinear HB criterion, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to accurately approximate the implicit limit state function of a rock slope. Then the MARS is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to implement reliability analysis, and the influences of distribution types, level of uncertainty, and constants on the probability density functions and failure probability are discussed. It is found that distribution types of random variables have little influence on reliability results. The reliability results are affected by a combination of the uncertainty level and the constants. Finally, a reliability-based design figure is provided to evaluate the safety factor of a slope required for a target failure probability.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제14권10호
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• pp.207-215
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• 2009

최근 도시화 율이 증가됨에 따라 발생되는 도시의 범죄 예방을 위하여 컴퓨터정보기술과 GIS 기술을 이용한 범죄 공간의 분석에 대한 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 정적인 환경에서 도시공간정보에 포함된 지역특성을 이용하여 단위 셀별 우범 위험도를 계량화하여 래스터 형태의 확률 지도를 구성하였다. 지형적 특성에 의한 상대적 위험도, 시설물에 의한 상대적 위험도, 수목이나 하천에 의한 위험도 등을 기본으로 하여 위험도 확률 지도를 구축한다. 이를 통합한 위험도 확률 지도를 구할 때는 각각의 단위 위험도에 기후나 계절적 요인에 의해 가중치를 적용한 후 평균하게 된다. 또한 일회성 분석이 아닌 범죄 발생 상대적 위험지수의 패턴을 판독키로 하여 전체 위험도의 확률 지도를 생성하여 이후 발생하는 범죄의 유형을 계량화하는 확률지도에 추가적으로 적용하어 정적인 정보가 아닌 시간의 흐름에 따라 범죄 위험도 확률지도가 달라질 수 있는 모델과 시뮬레이션 하는 방법론을 제안하였다.

• 한국측량학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.295-303
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• 2012

풍력발전 단지의 수익성 평가를 위해 연간 에너지 생산량(AEP ; Annual Energy Production)의 계산이 중요하다. AEP를 계산하기 위해서는 바람의 확률밀도함수(PDF ; Probability Density Function)와 풍력발전기의 발전곡선(PC; Power Curve)이 필요하며, AEP 예측의 정확성을 향상시키기 위해서는 허브 높이에서의 PDF예측과 그 높이의 공기밀도에 따른 풍력발전기 PC의 결정이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 제주도 한동, 평대의 실관측 풍황탑(met mast) 자료를 이용하였으며 풍속의 PDF를 Weibull 분포 함수로 가정 하였고 Weibull 함수의 파라미터의 값이 높이에 따라 변화하는 양상을 확인하였다. Weibul 함수의 계산은 모멘트법과 LN-least법을 사용하였으며, 모멘트법과 LN-least법에 의한 형상계수의 경우 높이의 증가에 따라 변화를 보이지 않았고 평균값에서 ${\pm}0.1$의 변화 패턴을 보였다. 척도계수의 경우 높이가 증가함에 따라 선형적으로 증가하였으며 지형별 분류에 따른 높이별 척도계수의 기울기는 확연한 차이를 보이고 있었다. 60m 높이에서 관측된 바람의 상대도수와 관측 값의 높이 보정에 의한 공기밀도와 일반식에 의한 공기밀도를 각각 계산하여 그 결과에 대응하는PC를 선택하여 AEP차이를 계산하였다.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:데이타베이스
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.688-701
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• 2001

웹 캐쉬는 웹 응용의 성능향상을 위한 중요한 문제가 되었다. 본 논문에서는 웹 데이타에 부여 되는 만기시간(expiration time을 활용하여 웹 캐쉬의 성능을 향상시키는 방법을 제안한다. 먼저, 기존 캐 쉬 교체 알고리즘에서 사용된 참조확률에 만기시간의 영향을 반영한 유효참조확률(effective referenceprobability)의 개념을 제시한다. 그리고, 유효참조확률을 정형적으로 정의한 후, 확률적 모델 하에서 이 론적으로 유도한다. 기존의 교체 알고리즘에서 참조확률을 유효탐조확률로 대체하면 기존 교체 알고리즘에만기시간의 영향을 반영할 수 있다. 성능평가 결과, 유효참조확률을 사용한 알고리즘이 그렇지 않은 알고 리즘보다 항상 우수한 결과를 보였다. 이것은 제안한 방법이 만기시간을 고려하여 캐쉬효과를 얻을 이론적 인 확률을 정확히 반영한 방법으로서, 만기시간의 영향을 보다 효과적으로 반영하기 때문이다. 특히, 유효 참조확률은 캐쉬비율이 0.05이고 갱신이 비교적 자주 일어날 경우(갱신횟구가 참조횟수의 1/10이상인 경우)에 LRU-2의 경우 30% 이상. Aggarwal의 방법(refresh overhead factor가 통합된 PSS)의 경우 13%이상 성능을 개선하였다. 이 같은 결과는 유효참조확률이 만기시간이 주어지는 웹 캐쉬에서 크게 성능을 개선할 수 있음을 보여주고 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.503-513
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• 1999

The Bayes factor for the identification of stationary ARM(p,q) models is exactly computed using the Monte Carlo method. As priors are used the uniform prior for (\ulcorner,\ulcorner) in its stationarity-invertibility region, the Jefferys prior and the reference prior that are noninformative improper for ($\mu$,$\sigma$\ulcorner).

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.1329-1341
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• 2006

When X and Y have independent gamma distributions, we consider the testing problem for two gamma means. We propose a solution based on a Bayesian model selection procedure to this problem in which no subjective input is considered. The reference prior is derived. Using the derived reference prior, we compute the fractional Bayes factor and the intrinsic Bayes factors. The posterior probability of each model is used as a model selection tool. Simulation study and a real data example are provided.