• Water for future
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.113-124
• /
• 1993

This study aims at the evaluation of the stationary distribution and the emptiness passage time for the effectiveness of water utility in the Keumgang estuary reservoir by two-step transition model. It was taken discrete Markovian correlated inflows for the joint probability of inflows and storage, and was used binomial distribution for inflows distribution. As the results, it was decreased from 0.952 to 0.904 the emptiness probability of the reservoir stationary distribution during 1952-1980, and from 0.900 to 0.829 during 1981-1989, and the average emptiness passage time was increased from 23 days to 37 days during 1952-1980, and from 29 days to 61 days during 1981-1989 at low state of storage. From this, it is found that the emptiness passage time is varied with the increase of the inflows auto-correlation coefficient in the Keumgang estuary reservoir. Therefore, it is understood that auto-correlation coefficient must be taken into consideration for the evaluation of water utility in a small reservoir at drought time.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.42 no.9
• /
• pp.725-736
• /
• 2009

A flood event can be defined by three characteristics; peak discharge, total flood volume, and flood duration, which are correlated each other. However, a conventional flood frequency analysis for the hydrological plan, design, and operation has focused on evaluating only the amount of peak discharge. The interpretation of this univariate flood frequency analysis has a limitation in describing the complex probability behavior of flood events. This study proposed a bivariate flood frequency analysis using a Gumbel mixed model for the flood evaluation. A time series of annual flood events was extracted from observations of inflow to the Soyang River Dam and the Daechung Dam, respectively. The joint probability distribution and return period were derived from the relationship between the amount of peak discharge and the total volume of flood runoff. The applicability of the Gumbel mixed model was tested by comparing the return periods acquired from the proposed bivariate analysis and the conventional univariate analysis.

• Korean Journal of Human Ecology
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.35-43
• /
• 2008

The purpose of this study is to develop evaluation tools for young children's mathematical ability based on the content standards of NCTM and to verify the suitability of the tools. The tools consist of 5 sub-tests with 90 items, including number and operation, algebra, geometry, measurement, data analysis and probability. The tool analysis was examined with 300 three-to five-years-old children and 31 math education professionals. The results of this research are as follows : First, in order of age the passing rate increased. The gap between high and low score group reveals a statistically meaningful difference. Second, the internal consistency reliability coefficient, Cronbach ${\alpha}$, is .96. Test-retest reliability is around .90. The concurrent validity correlation between this tools and Choi Hye-Jin's test(2003) is .85. The analysis of the content validity was proved appropriately by math education professionals.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.23-36
• /
• 1995

We present a performance evaluation model of cell reassembly mechanism in an ATM switching system. An ATM switching system may be designed so that communications between processors of its control part can be performed via its switching network rather than a separate inter-processor communications network. In such a system, there should be interface to convert inter-processor communication traffic from message format to cell format and vice versa, that is, mechanisms to perform the segmentation and reassembly sublayer. In this paper, we employ a continuous-time Markov chain for the performance evaluation model of cell reassembly mechanism with individual buffering, judicially defining the states of the mechanism. Performance measures such as message loss probability and average reassembly delay are obtained in closed forms. Some numerical illustrations are given for the performance analysis and dimensioning of the cell reassembly mechanism.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 1997.11a
• /
• pp.221-223
• /
• 1997

This paper presents the Simplified Simulation Technique that evaluates the adequacy of an electric power system using only a portion of the outage period instead of each hour. Reliability evaluation may be performed at various hierarchical levels, generation, transmission and distribution system. The Simplified Simulation Technique simplifies the adequacy evaluation process reducing the number of calculations considerably. Therefore the computation time can be significantly reduced. This paper is done to compare the results of the simulation model with the Simplified Simulation Technique against the results of the simulation model without the Simplified Simulation Technique. The reliability indices such as the Loss of Load Probability(LOLP), the loss of load frequency(LOLF), the average duration of load curtailment(DLC) and the average demand of load curtailment(ADLC) are calculated. The proposed methods and procedures are tested by using the IEEE-RTS with 24-bus system.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.61-74
• /
• 2001

The reliability evaluation of the large scale network becomes very complicate according to the growing size of network. Moreover if the reliability is not constant but follows probability distribution function, it is almost impossible to compute them in theory. This paper studies the network evaluation methods in order to overcome such difficulties. For this an efficient path set algorithm which seeks the path set connecting the start and terminal nodes efficiently is developed. Also, various variance reduction techniques are applied to compute the system reliability to enhance the simulation performance. As a numerical example, a large scale network is given. The comparisons of the path set algorithm and the variance reduction techniques are discussed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.25 no.6
• /
• pp.186-196
• /
• 2010

It has been well known that traffic accidents occur under combined functional contributions of drivers, vehicles and road facilities, and that evaluation of safety levels for a specific road section or point is generally much complicated. Additionally, most of traffic accidents occur randomly implicating it is necessary to be evaluated in terms of probability theory. Thus, the evaluation model which reflects various characteristics and probabilistic distributions of traffic accidents has been necessary. The present paper provides a reliability based model with variables of probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together which have been individually explaining associated characteristics in traffic accidents. Consequently, the model made it possible for speed management and road improvement projects to be evaluated in a common index. Application studies were performed in three cases. Through the studies, couples of facts were identified that the model successfully considered the probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together and that then, the model evaluated road safety alternatives relatively which are complicatedly characterized and differently located.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
• /
• v.11 no.8
• /
• pp.709-716
• /
• 2005

As a way to build more efficient and intelligent container cranes for todays hub ports, communication networks are used to interconnect numerous sensors, actuators, controllers, and operator switches and consoles that are spatially distributed over a crane. Various signals such as sensor values and operator's commands are digitized and broadcast on the network instead of using separate wiring cables. This not only makes the design and manufacturing of a crane more efficient, but also easier implementation of intelligent control algorithms. This paper presents the performance evaluation of CAN(Controller Area Network), TTP(Time Triggered Protocol) and Byteflight that can be used for cranes. Through discrete event simulation, several important quantitative performance factors such as the probability of a transmission failure, average system delay (data latency) and maximum system delay have been evaluated.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.31 no.4
• /
• pp.90-96
• /
• 2016

This study proposes a dynamic reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this dynamic reliability analysis, the failure event is defined as an event that the dynamic response of the structural system exceeds a displacement limit, whereas the conventional reliability analysis method has limitations that do not properly assess the actual time history response of the structure subjected to dynamic loads, such as earthquakes and high winds, by taking the static response into account in the failure event. In this first paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the member-level failure where the failure event of the structural member consists of the union set of time-sequential member failures during the earthquake excitations and the failure probability of the earthquake-excited structural member is computed using system reliability approach to consider the statistical dependence of member failures between the subsequent time points. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can present a reliable assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system in comparison with MCS method. The most important advantage of the proposed approach can provide us more accurate estimate of failure probability of the structural control system by using the actual time-history responses obtained by dynamic response analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.267-277
• /
• 2009

Partial safety factors of the load, resistance, and reliability function are evaluated according to the target probability of failure on sliding mode of monolithical vertical caisson of composite breakwaters. After reliability function is formulated for sliding failure mode of caisson of composite breakwaters regarding bias of wave force, uncertainties of random variables related to loads, strengths are analyzed. Reliability analysis for the various conditions of water depth, geometric, and wave conditions is performed using Level II AFDA model for the sliding failure. Furthermore, the reliability model is also applied to the real caisson of composite breakwaters of Daesan, Dong- hae, and Pohang harbor. By comparing the required width of caisson of composite breakwater according to target probability of failure with the other results, the partial safety factors evaluated in this study are calibrated straightforwardly. Even though showing a little difference on the 1% of target probability, it may be found that the present results agree well with the other results in every other target probability of failure.