• Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.43-49
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• 2010

The piping failure probability of the reactor coolant system in Kori unit 1 was evaluated considering stress corrosion cracking. The P-PIE program (Probabilistic Piping Integrity Evaluation Program) developed in this study was used in the analysis. The effect of some variables such as oxygen concentration during start up and steady state operation, and operating temperature, which are related with stress corrosion cracking, on the piping failure probabilities was investigated. The effects of leak detection capability, the size of big leak, piping loops, and reactor types on the piping failure probability were also investigated. The results show that (1) LOCA (loss of coolant accident) probability of Kori unit 1 is extremely low, (2) leak probability is sensitive to oxygen concentration during steady state operation and operating temperature, while not sensitive to the oxygen concentration during start up, and (3) the piping thickness and operating temperature play important roles in the leak probabilities of the cold leg in 4 reactor types having same inner diameter.

• Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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• 1994.06a
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• pp.692-697
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• 1994

In the actual sound environmental systems, it seems to be essentially difficult to exactly evaluate a whole probability distribution form of its response fluctuation, owing to various types of natural, social and human factors. Up to now, we very often reported two kinds of unified probability density expressions in the standard expansion from of Hermite and Laguerre type orthonormal series to generally evaluate non-Gaussian, non-linear correlation and/or non-stationary properties of the fluctuation phenomenon. However, in the real sound environment, there still remain many actual problems on the necessity of improving the above two standard type probability expressions for practical use. In this paper, first, a central point is focused on how to find a new probabilistic theory of practically evaluating the variety and complexity of the actual random fluctuations, especially through introducing some equivalence transformation toward two standard probability density expressions mentioned above in the expansion from of Hermite and Laguerre type orthonormal series. Then, the effectiveness of the proposed theory has been confirmed experimentally too by applying it to the actual problems on the response probability evaluation of various sound insulation systems in an acoustic room.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.7-12
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• 2007

In order to evaluate the integrity of Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes, probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) approach was employed. Failure assessment diagram(FAD), plastic collapses, and critical crack lengths(CCL) were used for evaluating the failure probability as failure criteria. The Kr-FAD as failure assessment diagram was used because fracture of pressure tubes occurred in brittle manner due to hydrogen embrittlement of material by deuterium fluence. The probabilistic integrity evaluation observed AECL procedures and used fracture toughness parameters of EPRI and recently announced theory. In conclusion, the probabilistic approach using the Kr-FAD made it possible to determine major failure criterion in the pressure tube integrity evaluation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2014.04a
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• pp.191-196
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• 2014

In the evaluation of measured noise data, tolerance shall be decided based on the uncertainty. The uncertainty has frequency variations due to the different standard deviations at each frequency. Therefore, tolerance shall be differently decided for each frequency with the same confidence probability. In the report, the evaluation method considering the frequency variation of uncertainty will be introduced. From the approach, considering the actual noise distribution characteristics of the ships, the tolerance shall be decided for each frequency with the same probability, but the overall averaged value shall be kept to the value designated in each notation.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.28-38
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• 2000

This research investigates a kill probability model for the performance evaluation of guided missile system, and also develops graphical user interface for the input and output of the model based on the visual object-oriented programming application. The major simulation events used in this research are missile guidance homing point, burst points, and kill mechanism(direct kill, blast kill and fragment kill). For the user interface, we also design and implement the visualization system that can show the graphic style of the kill probability attained by the model. The results of sample run are shown, but these could be improved to be better with visual simulation which can visulaize all the simulation process of the model.

• Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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• 1994.06a
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• pp.686-691
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• 1994

For evaluating the response fluctuation of the actual environmental acoustic system excited by arbitrary random inputs, it is important to predict a whole probability distribution form closely connected with evaluation indexes Lx, Leq and so on. In this paper, a new type evaluation method is proposed by introducing three functional models matched to the prediction of the response probability distribution from a problem-oriented viewpoint. Because of the positive variable of the sound intensity, the response probability density function can be reasonably expressed theoretically by a statistical Laguerre expansion series form. The relationship between input and output is described by the regression relationship between the distribution parameters(containing expansion coefficients of this expression) and the stochastic input. These regression functions are expressed in terms of the orthogonal series expansion and their parameters are determined based on the least-squares error criterion and the measure of statistical independency.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.44-51
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• 2001

To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it larks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.12
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• pp.2119-2124
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• 2010

Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is the evaluation for all customers supplied from one power source as main transformer located in substation. However, power sources include not only the main transformer but distributed generations. Typical reliability evaluation has focused on configuration of power system with one source including failure rates of equipment. In this paper, we focus on not only configuration but power sources as distributed generations. New reliability evaluation method using power supplied probability (PSP) is proposed. The proposed evaluation method are proved through case studies.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.80-86
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• 2007

The concept of the coverage has been played an important role in the area of reliability evaluation of a system. The widely used measures of reliability include the m time between failures, the availability and so on. In this paper, we propose an estimator of the coverage probability in a redundant system with a control unit and investigate some moments of the proposed estimator. And assuming exponential distribution of all units, we conduct a simulation study for calculating the estimates of the coverage probability and its confidence bounds. An example of evaluating the availability of an optical transportation system is illustrated.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.155-173
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• 2003

Parameters and quantiles of the 2-parameter generalized Pareto distribution were estimated using the methods of regular moments, modified moments, probability weighted moments, linear moments, maximum likelihood, and entropy for Monte Carlo-generated samples. The performance of these seven estimators was statistically compared, with the objective of identifying the most robust estimator. It was found that in general the methods of probability-weighted moments and L-moments performed better than the methods of maximum likelihood estimation, moments and entropy, especially for smaller values of the coefficient of variation and probability of exceedance.