• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.80-85
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• 2013

This paper describes a probabilistic structural design method of composite propulsion system by comparing safety factor based on average value and allowable value with structural reliability. Generally, the required structural safety factor and reliability of composite pressure vessel are 1.5 and 0.999, respectively. In the case of structural design using average strength, the safety factor which satisfies the required structural reliability depends on the variation of fiber strength. However, the structural design using allowable value shows constant safety factor for the variation of fiber strength, because the allowable value of fiber strength is calculated by considering the variation of fiber strength. Through the analysis results, it was known that the fiber strength is the most important design random variable for the structural design of composite pressure vessel and the variation of fiber strength must be minimized to develop the high performance composite propulsion system.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.99-107
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• 2009

This study produced a design curve and fatigue limit for a variation in volume ratio and reduction ratio of TiNi/Al composites. In many cases, stress-life curve does not indicate fatigue limit, so it was presented by probabilistic-stress-life curve. Goodman diagram was used to analyze the fatigue strength of materials with a finite life determined by repeated load and the fatigue strength of endurance limit with an infinite life. The fatigue experiment was conducted using the scenk-type plane bending specimen in same shape. The result of the fatigue test, which had been conducted under consistent stress amplitude, was examined. (i) The optimal condition for TiNi/Al in accordance with hot pressing (ii) Impacts of fatigue limit caused by a variation in reduction ratio and volume ratio of TiNi/Al composites (iii) Probability distribution for fatigue limit of TiNi/Al2024 and TiNi/Al6061.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.77-87
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• 2012

Recently, Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) based on reliability analysis has become a global trend for economical and rational design. In order to implement the LRFD, quantification of uncertainty for load and resistance should be done. The reliability of result relies on input variable, and therefore, it is important to obtain exact uncertainty properties of load and resistance. Since soil stress is the main reason causing the settlement or deformation of ground and load on the underground structure, it is essential to clarify the uncertainty of soil stress distribution for accurately predict the uncertainty of load in LRFD. In this study, laboratory model test on silty sand bed under probabilistic load is performed to observe propagation of upper load uncertainty. The results show that the coefficient of variation (COV) of soil stress are varied depending on location due to non-linear relationship between upper load increment and soil pressure increment. In addition, when the load uncertainty is transmitted through ground, COV is decreased by damping effect.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.453-462
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• 2023

Intermediate Geomaterials (IGMs) are natural formation materials that exhibit the engineering behavior (strength and compressibility) between soils and rocks. The engineering behavior of such material is highly unpredictable as the IGMs are stiffer than soils and weaker/softer than rocks. Further, the characterization of such material needs exposure to both soil and rock mechanics. In most conventional designs of geotechnical structures, the engineering properties of the IGMs are either aligned with soils or rocks, and this assumption may end up either in an over-conservative design or under-conservative design. Hence, many researchers have attempted to evaluate its actual engineering properties through laboratory tests. However, the test results are partially reliable due to the poor core recovery of IGMs and the possible sample disturbance. Subsequently, in-situ tests have been used in recent years to evaluate the engineering properties of IGMs. However, the respective in-situ test finds its limitations while exploring IGMs with different geological formations at deeper depths with the constraints of sampling. Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the strength-based index test that is often used to explore IGMs. Moreover, it was also observed that the coefficient of variation of the design parameters (which represents the uncertainties in the design parameters) of IGMs is relatively high, and also the studies on the probabilistic characterization of IGMs are limited compared with soils and rocks. With this perspective, the present article reviews the laboratory and in-situ tests used to characterize the IGMs and explores the shear strength variation based on their geological origin.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.27 no.10
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• pp.93-104
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• 2011

In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic steady seepage analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil permeability is presented. The procedure extends the deterministic analysis based on the finite element method to a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil permeability. Two-dimensional random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the seepage behavior of soil foundation beneath water retaining structure with a single sheet pile wall. The results showed that the probabilistic framework can be used to efficiently consider the various flow patterns caused by the spatial variability of the soil permeability in seepage assessment for a soil foundation beneath water retaining structures.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.191-198
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• 2013

In this paper, the effects of uncertain material constant on the nonlinear behavior of steel frames with semi-rigid joints are examined. As to the probabilistic model, a normal distribution is assumed to simulate the uncertain elastic modulus of steel material. A nonlinear structural analysis program, which can consider both semi-rigidity in joints of the steel frames and uncertainty in the material constant, is developed. Including the geometric, material and connection nonlinearites which are the parameters of nonlinear behavior of steel frames, probabilistic analysis is conducted based on the Monte-Carlo simulation. In the probabilistic analyses, we consider the three different cases for random variables. The deterministic analysis results are shown to be in good agreement with those of the previous research results in the literature. As to the probabilistic analyses, it is observed that the coefficient of variation(COV) of displacements increases as the loading increases, and that the values of COV are dependent on the structural features of the frames.

• Architectural research
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.151-158
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• 2013

Offshore oil and gas process plants are exposed to hazardous accidents such as explosion and fire, so that the structural components should resist such accidental loads. Given the possibilities of thousands of different scenarios for the occurrence of an accidental hazard, the best way to predict a reasonable size of a specific accidental load would be the employment of a probabilistic approach. Having the fact that a specific procedure for probabilistic accidental hazard analysis has not yet been established especially for explosion and fire hazards, it is widely accepted that engineers usually take simple and conservative figures in assuming uncertainties inherent in the procedure, resulting either in underestimation or more likely in overestimation in the topside structural design for offshore plants. The variation in the results of a probabilistic approach is determined by the assumptions accepted in the procedures of explosion probability computation, explosion analysis, and structural analysis. A design overpressure load for a sample offshore plant is determined according to the proposed probabilistic approach in this study. CFD analysis results using a Flame Acceleration Simulator, FLACS_v9.1, are utilized to create an overpressure hazard curve. Moreover, the negative impulse and frequency contents of a blast wave are considerably influencing structural responses, but those are completely ignored in a widely used triangular form of blast wave. An idealistic blast wave profile deploying both negative and positive pulses is proposed in this study. A topside process module and piperack with blast wall are 3D FE modeled for structural analysis using LS-DYNA. Three different types of blast wave profiles are applied, two of typical triangular forms having different impulse and the proposed load profile. In conclusion, it is found that a typical triangular blast load leads to overestimation in structural design.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.28 no.12
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• pp.65-76
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• 2012

In this study, probabilistic analysis of seepage through a two-layered soil foundation was performed. The hydraulic conductivity of soil shows significant spatial variations in different layers because of stratification; further, it varies on a smaller scale within each individual layer. Therefore, the deterministic seepage analysis method was extended to develop a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the hydraulic conductivity in a layered soil profile. Two-dimensional random fields were generated on the basis of the Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function for each layer. A Monte Carlo simulation was then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the seepage behavior of two-layered soil foundation beneath water retaining structure. The results showed that the probabilistic framework can be used to efficiently consider the various flow patterns caused by the spatial variability of the hydraulic conductivity in seepage assessment for a layered soil foundation.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.12
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• pp.13-25
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• 2009

In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic slope stability analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil properties is presented. The procedure extends the deterministic analysis based on the limit equilibrium method of slices to a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil parameters. Making no a priori assumptions about the critical failure surface like the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM), the approach saves the amount of solution time required to perform the analysis. Two-dimensional random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty caused by the spatial heterogeneity on the stability of slope. The results show that the proposed method can efficiently consider the various failure mechanisms caused by the spatial variability of soil property in the probabilistic slope stability assessment.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.743-749
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• 2010

This paper proposes a derating design method for improving system reliability by using a probabilistic approach. In the proposed design, the focus is upon system levels in determining derated levels of stresses such as temperature and current, unlike recent design approaches that focus on component levels. System reliability is evaluated using component reliability metrics that are given as functions of time and unknown stresses; this evaluation is based on a series system-reliability model. The variation in stress, which was not considered in previous derating designs, is introduced in the present design to account for the uncertainty in both environmental and operating conditions at the customer' hands. Optimization problems for system reliability improvement are formulated and solved using FORM to determine the best derating design. An example of a derating design for an electrical system shows the details of the proposed method and its applicability to systems design for reliability improvement.