• 지질공학
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.247-257
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• 2011

본 연구는 사면재해 취약성 평가를 위해 사면모델 중 하나인 무한사면 해석모델을 적용하였다. 그러나 무한사면 해석모델은 광역적인 연구지역에 적용하는데 있어서 데이터획득 및 처리과정에 어려움이 있고 데이터 획득과정에서 불가피하게 불확실성이 개입되는 문제가 있다. 이러한 불확실성을 최소화하기 위해 확률론적 해석기법인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하였으며, 광역적인 연구지역에 무한사면 해석모델을 적용하기 위하여 GIS를 활용한 무한사면 안정해석법으로 파괴확률을 획득하였다. 연구지역으로는 사면재해가 집중적으로 발생한 보은지역을 선정하였고 사면의 기하학적인 특성과 점착력 및 내부마찰각 등의 강도정수를 획득하였다. 또한 불확실성의 효과를 평가하기 위해 강도정수의 변동계수를 10%에서 30%로 고려하였고 이러한 과정을 통하여 확률론적 해석기법은 자료의 불확실성을 감쇠시킬 수 있다는 결과를 도출하였다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제35권10호
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• pp.1171-1178
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• 2011

본 논문은 동적 시스템인 구동기의 강건설계를 수행한 결과를 제시한다. 구동기를 구성하는 부품들의 변량은 구동기의 성능에 변량을 유발한다. 따라서 부품들의 변량에 둔감한 구동기의 성능을 확보하기 위해 구동기에 대해서 강건설계를 수행하였다. 구동기를 구성하는 부품들을 전달함수로 표현하여 시뮬링크 모델로 구축하였으며, 시뮬링크 모델을 이용하여 설계 변수 조합에 따른 구동기의 응답을 얻었다. 또한 반응표면법을 적용하여 구동기의 응답을 설계 변수들의 2차 함수로 근사화하였다. 구동기응답을 출력으로 하는 근사화된 모델에 확률적 설계방법을 적용하여 강건한 구동기의 성능을 위한 최적 설계변수를 결정하고 기존 설계와 비교한 결과를 제시하였다.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.71-78
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• 1998

최근 선박의 디젤주기관은, 선반의 에너지 절약을 도모하기 위하여 장행정 소수실린더 저속회전화 추세에 있기 때문에 기전력이 커지고 있다. 이러한 결과로 추진축계에 비틂진동이 크게 발생함으로 인하여 축계의 과잉 비틂진동응력과 프로펠러의 추력변동이 크게 야기되면서 추력변동은 축계와 상부구조물의 종진동을 유발시키고 있다. 이와관련하여 추진축계의 기진력이 확정적이라는 가정하에서 확정적 연성강제진동에 관한 연구가 진행되어 왔으며, 또한 축계기진력의 변화성을 고려하여 축계 비틂강제진동에 대한 확률적 해석이 수행되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 디젤기관 및 프로펠러의 기진력의 확률변수를 동시에 고려하여, 추진축계의 종 비틂연성진동의 확률적 해석에 대한 새로운 방법을 제시하였다. 확률적 해석에 응답면이론과 Monte-Carlo시뮬레이션법이 적용되었다. 본 해석방법의 유용성을 확인하기위하여 시산대상선의 추진축계에 대한 일련의 확정적 및 확률적 수치계산을 각각 수행하고, 그 계산결과를 서로 비교 검토하여 본 결과, 본 해석방법의 유용성이 확인되었다.

• 대기
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.405-420
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• 2020

In this study, we investigate the predictability of intraseasonal monthly temperature and precipitation variations using hindcast datasets from eight global circulation models participating in the operational multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center for the 1983~2010 period. These intraseasonal monthly variations are defined by categorical deterministic analysis. The monthly temperature and precipitation are categorized into above normal (AN), near normal (NN), and below normal (BN) based on the σ-value ± 0.43 after standardization. The nine patterns of intraseasonal monthly variation are defined by considering the changing pattern of the monthly categories for the three consecutive months. A deterministic and a probabilistic analysis are used to define intraseasonal monthly variation for the multi-model consisting of numerous ensemble members. The results show that a pattern (pattern 7), which has the same monthly categories in three consecutive months, is the most frequently occurring pattern in observation regardless of the seasons and variables. Meanwhile, the patterns (e.g., patterns 8 and 9) that have consistently increasing or decreasing trends in three consecutive months, such as BN-NN-AN or AN-NN-BN, occur rarely in observation. The MME and eight individual models generally capture pattern 7 well but rarely capture patterns 8 and 9.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.469-479
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• 2023

A probabilistic seismic damage analysis is an essential procedure to identify seismically vulnerable structures, prioritize the seismic retrofit, and ultimately minimize the overall seismic risk. To assess the seismic risk of multiple structures within a region, a large number of nonlinear time-history structural analyses must be conducted and studied. As a result, each assessment requires high computing resources. To overcome this limitation, we explore a deep learning-based metamodel to enable the prediction of the mean and the standard deviation of the seismic damage distribution of track-on steel-plate girder railway bridges in Korea considering the geometric variation. For machine learning training, nonlinear dynamic time-history analyses are performed to generate 800 high-fidelity datasets on the seismic response. Through intensive trial and error, the study is concentrated on developing an optimal machine learning architecture with the pre-identified variables of the physical configuration of the bridge. Additionally, the prediction performance of the proposed method is compared with a previous, well-defined, response surface model. Finally, the statistical testing results indicate that the overall performance of the deep-learning model is improved compared to the response surface model, as its errors are reduced by as much as 61%. In conclusion, the model proposed in this study can be effectively deployed for the seismic fragility and risk assessment of a region with a large number of structures.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2006년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1148-1154
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• 2006

Composite discharge capacity tests and smear effect tests are carried out to estimate the parameters for the reliability-based design of vertical drain method. Also the probabilistic and deterministic solutions of radial consolidation theory are presented. It compared to the result of reliability-based design and that of deterministic design using the tested and estimated parameters. The results indicated that the drain spacing is larger the deterministic method than the probabilistic method because the former is not considered the uncertainties in the properties of soil. The divergence of methods is dependent on the probability of achieving target degree of consolidation by a given time and the coefficient of variation(COV) of the coefficient of horizontal consolidation$(c_h)$.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제24권8호
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• pp.2115-2122
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• 2000

The understanding of impact-induced delamination is important in safety and reliability of composite structure. In this study, a model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models, experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work factor used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior can be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. A variation of arrest toughness increases with specimen thickness.

• 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지구물리탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of the international symposium on the fusion technology
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• pp.192-197
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• 2003

It can be said that rock mass properties are characterized not by a mean value but by values with variation due to its characteristic uncertainty. This characteristic is one of the most important parts for the design of underground structures, but yet to be fully examined. Stochastic finite element method (SFEM) has been developed in order to take the randomness of structural systems into account. Using SFEM, the response variability of structural system can be obtained and it leads probabilistic stability of structure to be analyzed. In this study, displacements response variability of circular opening with hydrostatic stress field are analyzed in terms of rock mass properties having a certain mean and a standard deviation using the SFEM. The analyzed response variability shows that the necessity of probabilistic stability analysis of underground structures using reliable mean value and standard deviation of deformation modulus.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
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• pp.132-137
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• 2000

In this study, model for arrest toughness is proposed in consideration of fracture behavior of composite materials. Also, the probabilistic model is proposed to describe the variability of arrest toughness due to the nonhomogeneity of material. For these models. experiments were conducted on the Carbon/Epoxy composite plates with various thickness using the impact hammer. The elastic work fatter used in J-Integral is applicable to the evaluation of energy release rate. The fracture behavior call be described by crack arrest concept and the arrest toughness is independent of the delamination size. Additionally, a probabilistic characteristics of arrest toughness is well described by the Weibull distribution function. An increasing of thickness raises a variation of arrest toughness.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2005년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1682-1685
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• 2005

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolerance of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or estimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte-Carlo Method and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to inconstant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.