• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제63권5호
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• pp.659-667
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• 2017

Rail support failure is inevitably subjected to track geometric deformations. Due to the randomness and evolvements of track irregularities, it is naturally a hard work to grasp the trajectories of dynamic responses of railway systems. This work studies the influence of rail fastener failure on dynamic behaviours of wheel/rail interactions and the railway tracks by jointly considering the effects of track random irregularities. The failure of rail fastener is simulated by setting the stiffness and damping of rail fasteners to be zeroes in the compiled vehicle-track coupled model. While track random irregularities will be transformed from the PSD functions using a developed probabilistic method. The novelty of this work lays on providing a method to completely reveal the possible responses of railway systems under jointly excitation of track random irregularities and rail support failure. The numerical results show that rail fastener failure has a great influence on both the wheel/rail interactions and the track vibrations if the number of rail fastener failure is over three. Besides, the full views of time-dependent amplitudes and probabilities of dynamic indices can be clearly presented against different failing status.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.101-115
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• 2013

This paper examines the application of structural reliability analysis to submarine pressure hulls to clarify the merits of probabilistic approach in respect thereof. Ultimate strength prediction methods which take the inelastic behavior of ring-stiffened cylindrical shells and hemi-spherical shells into account are reviewed. The modeling uncertainties in terms of bias and coefficient of variation for failure prediction methods in current design guidelines are defined by evaluating the compiled experimental data. A simple ultimate strength formulation for ring-stiffened cylinders taking into account the interaction between local and global failure modes and an ultimate strength formula for hemispherical shells which have better accuracy and reliability than current design codes are taken as basis for reliability analysis. The effects of randomness of geometrical and material properties on failure are assessed by a prelimnary study on reference models. By evaluation of sensitivity factors important variables are determined and comparesons are made with conclusions of previous reliability studies.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.115-121
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• 2012

This paper, being the second in a two-part series, presents the robust performance of the proposed design method which can enhance a reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) under the uncertainties of probabilistic models. The robust performances of the solutions obtained by the proposed method, described in the Part 1, are investigated through the parametric studies. A 10-bar truss example is considered, and the uncertain parameters include the number of data observed, and the variations of applied loadings and allowable stresses. The numerical results show that the proposed method can produce a consistent result despite of the large variations in the parameters. Especially, even with the relatively small data set, the analysis results show that the exact probabilistic model can be successfully predicted with optimized design sections. This consistency of estimating appropriate probability model is also observed in the case of the variations of other parameters, which verifies the robustness of the proposed method.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제63권1호
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• pp.18-26
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• 2014

A microgrid can play a significant role for enlargement of renewable energy sources and emission reduction because it is a network of small, distributed electrical power generators operated as a collective unit. In this paper, an application of optimization method to economical operation of a microgrid is studied. The microgrid to be studied here is composed of distributed generation system(DGS), battery systems and loads. The distributed generation systems include combined heat and power(CHP) and small generators such as diesel generators and the renewable energy generators such as photovoltaic(PV) systems, wind power systems. Both of thermal loads and electrical loads are included here as loads. Also the emissions trading scheme to be applied in near future, the cost of unit start-up and the operational characteristics of battery systems are considered as well as the probabilistic characteristics of the renewable energy generation and load. A mathematical equation for optimal operation of this system is modeled based on the mixed integer programming. It is shown that this optimization methodology can be effectively used for economical operation of a microgrid by the case studies.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.319-326
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• 2018

Since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, concern and worry about multiunit accidents have been increasing. Korea has a higher urgency to evaluate its site risk because its number of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and population density are higher than those in other countries. Since the 1980s, technical documents have been published on multiunit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), but the Fukushima accident accelerated research on multiunit PSA. It is therefore necessary to summarize the present situation and draw implications for further research. This article reviews journal and conference papers on multiunit or site risk evaluation published between 2011 and 2016. The contents of the reviewed literature are classified as research status, initiators, and methodologies representing dependencies, and the insights and conclusions are consolidated. As of 2017, the regulatory authority and nuclear power utility have launched a full-scale project to assess multiunit risk in Korea. This article provides comprehensive reference materials on the necessary enabling technology for subsequent studies of multiunit or site risk assessment.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.600-606
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• 2019

Studies on the application of the lead rubber bearing (LRB) isolation system to nuclear power plants are being carried out as one of the measures to improve seismic performance. Nuclear power plants with isolation systems require seismic probabilistic safety assessments, for which the seismic fragility of the structures, systems, and components needs be calculated, including for beyond design basis earthquakes. To this end, seismic response analyses are required, where it can be seen that the behaviors of the isolation system components govern the overall seismic response of an isolated plant. The numerical model of the LRB used in these seismic response analyses plays an important role, but in most cases, the extreme performance of the LRB has not been well studied. The current work therefore develops an extreme nonlinear numerical model that can express the seismic response of the LRB for beyond design basis earthquakes. A full-scale LRB was fabricated and dynamically tested with various input conditions, and test results confirmed that the developed numerical model better represents the behavior of the LRB over previous models. Subsequent seismic response analyses of isolated nuclear power plants using the model developed here are expected to provide more accurate results for seismic probabilistic safety assessments.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.225-238
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• 2019

In this paper a novel and efficient computational framework to estimate the stress range versus number of cycles curves experienced by a cable due to external excitations (e.g., seismic excitations, traffic and wind-induced vibrations, among others) is proposed. This study is limited to the wind-cable interaction governed by the Vortex Shedding mechanism which mainly rules cables vibrations at low amplitudes that may lead to their failure due to bending fatigue damage. The algorithm relies on a stochastic approach to account for the uncertainties in the cable properties, initial conditions, damping, and wind excitation which are the variables that govern the wind-induced vibration phenomena in cables. These uncertainties are propagated adopting Monte Carlo simulations and the concept of importance sampling, which is used to reduce significantly the computational costs when new scenarios with different probabilistic models for the uncertainties are evaluated. A high fidelity cable model is also proposed, capturing the effect of its internal wires distribution and helix angles on the cables stress. Simulation results on a 15 mm diameter high-strength steel strand reveal that not accounting for the initial conditions uncertainties or using a coarse wind speed discretization lead to an underestimation of the stress range experienced by the cable. In addition, parametric studies illustrate the computational efficiency of the algorithm at estimating new scenarios with new probabilistic models, running 3000 times faster than the base case.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권8호
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• pp.2915-2923
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• 2022

There is an increasing interest in passive safety systems to minimize the need for operator intervention or external power sources in nuclear power plants. Because a passive system has a weak driving force, there is greater uncertainty in the performance compared with an active system. In previous studies, several methods have been suggested to evaluate passive system reliability, and many of them estimated the failure probability using thermal-hydraulic analyses and the Monte Carlo method. However, if the functional failure of a passive system is rare, it is difficult to estimate the failure probability using conventional methods owing to their high computational time. In this paper, a procedure for the application of the Chernoff bound to the evaluation of passive system reliability is proposed. A feasibility study of the procedure was conducted on a passive decay heat removal system of a micro modular reactor in its conceptual design phase, and it was demonstrated that the passive system reliability can be evaluated without performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic analyses or Monte Carlo simulations when the system has a small failure probability. Accordingly, the advantages and constraints of applying the Chernoff bound for passive system reliability evaluation are discussed in this paper.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.453-462
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• 2023

Intermediate Geomaterials (IGMs) are natural formation materials that exhibit the engineering behavior (strength and compressibility) between soils and rocks. The engineering behavior of such material is highly unpredictable as the IGMs are stiffer than soils and weaker/softer than rocks. Further, the characterization of such material needs exposure to both soil and rock mechanics. In most conventional designs of geotechnical structures, the engineering properties of the IGMs are either aligned with soils or rocks, and this assumption may end up either in an over-conservative design or under-conservative design. Hence, many researchers have attempted to evaluate its actual engineering properties through laboratory tests. However, the test results are partially reliable due to the poor core recovery of IGMs and the possible sample disturbance. Subsequently, in-situ tests have been used in recent years to evaluate the engineering properties of IGMs. However, the respective in-situ test finds its limitations while exploring IGMs with different geological formations at deeper depths with the constraints of sampling. Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the strength-based index test that is often used to explore IGMs. Moreover, it was also observed that the coefficient of variation of the design parameters (which represents the uncertainties in the design parameters) of IGMs is relatively high, and also the studies on the probabilistic characterization of IGMs are limited compared with soils and rocks. With this perspective, the present article reviews the laboratory and in-situ tests used to characterize the IGMs and explores the shear strength variation based on their geological origin.

• 에너지공학
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.46-53
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• 2005

본 논문은 확률적 기법을 적용하여 직접부하제어의 적정한 지원금을 산정하는 새로운 방법론을 제안한다. 직접부하제어의 경제성 분석은 발전기의 고장정지 특성, 직접부하제어 자원의 차단용량 및 차단시간 등을 모두 고려해야 하기 때문에 현실적으로 불가능한 것으로 인식되었다. 따라서 기존의 연구에서는 시나리오 접근법을 사용하여 직접부하제어의 경제성 평가를 수행하였다. 본 논문에서는 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하여 직접부하제어의 제어전력량을 확률적으로 추정하고 이를 기반으로 직접부하제어의 지원금을 산정하는 새로운 접근법을 개발하였다. 또한 시뮬레이션의 효율을 향상시키기 위하여 분산감소 기법을 적용하였다. 본 논문에서 제안한 방법론의 유용성을 보이기 위해 IEEE 24-모선 신뢰도 계통에 적용하여 사례연구를 수행하였다.