• 한국농공학회지
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• 제32권E호
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• pp.59-66
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• 1990

Abstract The formulation of the probabilistic finite element method was briefly reviewed. The method was implemented into a computer program for frame analysis which has the same analogy as finite element analysis. Another program for Monte Carlo simulation of finite element analysis was written. Two sample structures were assumed and analized. The characteristics of the second moment statistics obtained by the probabilistic finite element method was examined through numerical studies. The applicability and limitation of the method were also evaluated in comparison with the data generated by Monte Carlo simulation.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권1호
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• pp.11-20
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• 2014

Many classification studies for the community of densely-connected nodes are limited to the comprehensive analysis for detecting the communities in probabilistic networks with nodes and edge of the probabilistic distribution because of the difficulties of the probabilistic operation. This study aims to use convolution method for operating nodes and edge of probabilistic distribution. For the probabilistic hierarchy network with nodes and edges of the probabilistic distribution, the model of this study detects the communities of nodes to make the new probabilistic distribution with two distribution. The results of our model was verified through comparing with Monte-carlo Simulation and other community-detecting methods.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.78-82
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• 2004

This paper suggests the power system reliability evaluation fur transmission lines planning in composite power systems. In recent the importance and necessity of some studies on reliability evaluation of grid comes from the recent black-out accidents occurred in the world. Since probabilistic criterion can reflect recognize the probabilistic nature of system components, the application of probabilistic criterion has received a lot of attention. This paper introduces features and operation modes of the Transmission Reliability Evaluation fur Large-Scale Systems(TRELSS) Version 6.2, a program made in EPRI, for assessing reliability indices of composite power system. The characteristics of the TRELSS program are illustrated by the case studies using the KEPCO system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권8호
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• pp.1217-1233
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• 2018

Following a surge of interest in multi-unit risk in the last few years, many recent studies have suggested methods for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (MUPSA) and addressed several related aspects. Most of the existing studies though focused on two-unit nuclear power plant (NPP) sites or used rather simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models to demonstrate the proposed approaches. When considering an NPP site with three or more units, some approaches are inapplicable or yield very conservative results. Since the number of such sites is increasing, there is a strong need to develop and validate practical approaches to the related MUPSA. This article provides several detailed approaches that are applicable to multi-unit Level 1 PSA for sites with up to six or more reactor units. To validate the approaches, a multi-unit Level 1 PSA model is developed and the site core damage frequency is estimated for each of four representative multi-unit initiators, as well as for the case of a simultaneous occurrence of independent single-unit initiators in multiple units. For this purpose, an NPP site with six identical OPR-1000 units is considered, with full-scale Level 1 PSA models for a specific OPR-1000 plant used as the base single-unit models.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.165-175
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• 2017

This paper studies soil properties uncertainty and its implementation in the seismic response evaluation of structures. For this, response sensitivity of two 4- and 12-story RC shear walls to the soil properties uncertainty by considering soil structure interaction (SSI) effects is investigated. Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) model is used for shallow foundation modeling and the uncertainty of soil properties is expanded to the foundation stiffness and strength parameters variability. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is employed for probabilistic evaluations. By investigating the probabilistic evaluation results it's observed that as the soil and foundation become stiffer, the soil uncertainty is found to be less important in influencing the response variability. On the other hand, the soil uncertainty becomes more important as the foundation-structure system is expected to experience nonlinear behavior to more sever degree. Since full This paper studies soil properties uncertainty and its implementation in the seismic response evaluation of structures. For this, response sensitivity of two 4- and 12-story RC shear walls to the soil properties uncertainty by considering soil structure interaction (SSI) effects is investigated. Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) model is used for shallow foundation modeling and the uncertainty of soil properties is expanded to the foundation stiffness and strength parameters variability. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is employed for probabilistic evaluations. By investigating the probabilistic evaluation results it's observed that as the soil and foundation become stiffer, the soil uncertainty is found to be less important in influencing the response variability. On the other hand, the soil uncertainty becomes more important as the foundation-structure system is expected to experience nonlinear behavior to more sever degree. Since full probabilistic analysis methods like MC commonly are very time consuming, the feasibility of simple approximate methods' application including First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and ASCE41 proposed approach for the soil uncertainty considerations is investigated. By comparing the results of the approximate methods with the results obtained from MC, it's observed that the results of both FOSM and ASCE41 methods are in good agreement with the results of MC simulation technique and they show acceptable accuracy in predicting the response variability.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.373-392
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• 2001

The main idea behind the paper is to present two alternative methods of homogenization of the heat conduction problem in composite materials, where the heat conductivity coefficients are assumed to be random variables. These two methods are the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique and the second order perturbation second probabilistic moment method, with its computational implementation known as the Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM). From the mathematical point of view, the deterministic homogenization method, being extended to probabilistic spaces, is based on the effective modules approach. Numerical results obtained in the paper allow to compare MCS against the SFEM and, on the other hand, to verify the sensitivity of effective heat conductivity probabilistic moments to the reinforcement ratio. These computational studies are provided in the range of up to fourth order probabilistic moments of effective conductivity coefficient and compared with probabilistic characteristics of the Voigt-Reuss bounds.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2006

In a decision making process, the ambiguity of qualitative probabilistic expressions may result in a wrong conclusion. For this reason there had been many studies of quantifying qualitative probabilistic expressions in English-speaking countries. In this research, quantification of Korean qualitative probabilistic expressions is conducted through 4-step questionnaires. The numerical data of 78 verbal phrases were collected in the first questionnaire and classified in two categories (i.e., uncertainty and frequency). In each category, qualitative probabilistic expressions were divided into eleven groups according to the similarity of the numerical values. In the second questionnaire, subjects selected a representative expression for each group, which totaled 11. In the third questionnaire each subject was asked to rank eleven expressions from 1 to 11 with 1 indicating the highest probability. At last, subjects conducted pairwise comparisons to obtain relative weights, which are used to convert into the numerical probability scale.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.186-196
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• 2010

It has been well known that traffic accidents occur under combined functional contributions of drivers, vehicles and road facilities, and that evaluation of safety levels for a specific road section or point is generally much complicated. Additionally, most of traffic accidents occur randomly implicating it is necessary to be evaluated in terms of probability theory. Thus, the evaluation model which reflects various characteristics and probabilistic distributions of traffic accidents has been necessary. The present paper provides a reliability based model with variables of probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together which have been individually explaining associated characteristics in traffic accidents. Consequently, the model made it possible for speed management and road improvement projects to be evaluated in a common index. Application studies were performed in three cases. Through the studies, couples of facts were identified that the model successfully considered the probabilistic operating speeds and design speeds together and that then, the model evaluated road safety alternatives relatively which are complicatedly characterized and differently located.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제52권1호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2003

In this paper, we propose a reliability evaluation method considering the momentary interruptions of power distribution systems. The results of research are concentrated on two parts. One is the analytic and probabilistic reliability evaluation of power distribution system considering the momentary interruptions and the other is the reliability cost evaluation that unifies the cost of sustained and momentary interruptions. This proposed reliability cost evaluation methodology is also divided into the analytic and probabilistic approach and the time sequential Monte Carlo method is used for the probabilistic method. The proposed methods are tested using the modified RBTS (Roy Billinton Test System) form and historical reliability data of KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) system. Through the case studies, it is verified that the proposed reliability evaluation and its cost/worth assessment methodologies can be applied to the actual reliability studies.

• 대한수학교육학회지:학교수학
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2009

일부 연구자들 (Jones et al., 1997; Tarr & Jones, 1977; Tarr & Lannin, 2005)은 학생들의 확률적 사고틀에 대해 연구해왔다. 이들 연구는 학생들의 확률적 사고 수준을 이해하는 도구를 제공하였다. 그러나 중학교 학생들의 확률적 사고 수준 관련 연구는 조건부 확률과 독립성 개념에만 머물러 있었다. 이 연구에서는 Jones et al.(1977), Polaki (2005), and Tarr and Jones(1977)의 연구를 분석하고, 미국의 교육과정과 국가 수준의 평가 자료를 분석하여 중학교 학생들의 확률적 사고 수준을 평가할 수 있는 틀을 개발한다.